By Anthony
From that headline, you may infer that I was in Oakland watching the Mariners play the A’s. And those who inferred that would be correct. I am fortunate to attend school close enough, but not too close, to Oakland so I was able to take in Opening Day live. What follows are my observations on the games, including weird things I noticed and stuff like that.
If anyone reading is an A’s fan, likes the Oakland Coliseum or really will be offended while I insult almost everything Oakland, they should skip this paragraph. Oakland sucks. Their fans, sports radio announcers, stadium and team all suck. Almost half their fans left by the seventh inning in the first game of the series. Are you kidding me? Yes, the stadium was pretty full, but it’s the home opener, of course it will be full. These fans are more interested in insulting the other team than cheering for their own players. They ooohh and ahhhh when any ball is hit in the air, even if it is an obvious out, which shows their complete inexperience when watching a baseball game live. Their sports radio station claimed that Colon had a chance against the M’s because he has 15 wins against them in his career. Do they not realize he is super old? I could get 15 wins against the M’s if I pitched for long enough. Their stadium is small, ugly and gross. It is a football stadium and is designed for that end only, which is obvious just trying to walk to your seats.
Now that my Oakland rage has been sated, we can talk about baseball. Woo! The M’s won both their games this weekend, which is awesome. They scored 15 runs, also awesome. But before you crown these guys world champs, realize that this is the Oakland A’s. This is a terrible team; Brendan McCarthy is their “ace” and their best player strikes out 50% of the time (so far). Take these results with a grain of salt. Not even a grain, a boulder of salt. As Patrick showed, it is really easy to think Figgins is back, Saunders is going to be great and Kawasaki can fill in when the glass shortstop, Brendan Ryan, is injured. Guess what? They have played four games! Be patient and wait for a larger sample size. If Figgins is hitting .300 in May and Saunders is making people hesitate about bringing back Guti, then I will be convinced that those two have turned a corner. Not until then, but in the meantime it is a nice thing to see.
Yoenis Cespedes is fun to watch like Bucky Jacobsen was fun to watch. He has had 14 at-bats this year. He has struck out in 7 of them. That is really bad. Sure he hit the ball a mile and has hit homeruns in 75% of the games he played in. One was against a player in AAA right now and another was on a 2-0 fastball that Delabar had to throw since he couldn’t get ahead of him. You want to see how to beat Cespedes? Watch Delabar put on a clinic in the first game. It was beautiful. Here is a hint for all MLB pitchers reading this blog: throw Cespedes fastballs sparingly. He looked silly in Japan trying to hit Felix’s curve. He also has a pair of batting gloves he wears while hitting and when he gets on base, he removes them and puts on a different pair. He also admired a 462 foot homerun, which Vargas didn’t like. Who cares if he watches a homer un for a second or two, as long as it is a shot like that one, which was pretty awesome to see in person.
Here are some other unimportant notes I took during the game that are fun, interesting or otherwise noteable.
• It is tradition for rookie pitchers in the bullpen to have to carry a backpack on the walk from the dugout to the bullpen in pregame. In past years there has been an R2-D2 backpack, a military camouflage one and a Dora the Explorer. Since there are THREE rookies in the bullpen this year, Luetge, Delabar and Ramirez, there are three backpacks. There is a Yoshi, a Donkey Kong and a Pink Princess one.
• Scientific Fact, everything tastes better when eaten out of a souvenir helmet. I will prove this fact in my PhD, but that will be in a few years. Just take my word for it.
• Jesus Montero runs super weird. Some say its like he is trying to not wake up someone, others that he has a pulled hamstring. Anyway, he is super slow. Shocking news! A catcher is slow!
• Bob Melvin loves platoon splits. He played two different guys at the infield corners and a different DH in both Japan and Oakland when Vargas and Felix were pitching. I understand it, but still, it didn’t really help.
• The best in-between inning entertainment was a 70-year-old peanut guy dancing to LMFAO. It was more awesome in person. I guarantee it.
• Felix showed some fastballs at 93 but was more in the 91 range. As long as he is just as effective, I don’t really care. But he was not very effective. Give him another shot, and then maybe start to panic. Thank god the offense forgot that they were supposed to suck this year. Go M's.
Monday, April 9, 2012
Sunday, April 8, 2012
I Don't Believe What I Just Saw: Chone Figgins' Revival
Is Chone Figgins back?
First of all, back to what? Well, I guess back to his Angels form. Back to when he used to annoy the crap out of Mariner fans when he wore a different uniform. Undoubtedly, Figgins has disappointed in a big way so far in his Mariner career. He flat out sucked for two years. .259 in 2010, .188 in 2011? Yeah, thats bad.
So maybe "back" isn't the right word. Maybe the better question is something like will Chone Figgins contribute regularly in 2012? So far, he has played well. Well by Chone Figgins standards at least. Friday and Saturday's games didn't come anywhere close to clearing his name with M's fans, but what it did do is get M's fans to stop trashing him for a bit.
Figgins probably couldn't have played better on Friday. Sure, he struck out looking in the first and missed played a ball in the lights that cost Tom Wilhelmsen a run, but everything else he did legitimately contributed to the Mariners' victory. A sac bunt turned into a sort of RBI bunt single in the third. Then he scored on a sac fly from Jesus Montero. In the fourth, he stepped up with Michael Saunders at third and ripped (yes, ripped. Check out the replay, he ripped it.) an RBI single up the middle for the M's fifth run. In the sixth, after the M's chased McCarthy, Figgins laid down a beautiful safety squeeze scoring Michael Saunders and landing him on first base with a multi-hit night. In the eighth, he gave the "oh shit, really?" face after looping a ball the other way to left field for his third hit of the game. He stole a base to put a cherry on top of a great game.
Sure that's just one game. But that's just it. It's one game. Figgins doesn't have games like this. It usually takes him a week to get three hits. For a three hour period, we saw a glimpse at what we paid for two years ago. Scrappy situational hitting. A few timely bunts. Hard, line-drive singles. Stolen bases. The only thing missing was a triple.
Then saturday happened.
Chone must have known I started this story early, because he kickstarted the M's attack by whacking a triple off of Bartolo Colon's fossil. The Mariners never get off to a good start offensively. Mostly, this thought comes from not having a leadoff hitter that delivered consistently. Apparently they have that now. At least for a little while. Thanks to Figgy's triple, the Mariners led for good two batters into the game.
Figgins struck out in the third, but then came to the plate with two out in the fourth with his team leading 5-0 for the second straight game. Old Chone Figgins definitely strikes out here. he wouldn't care about giving the M's a run that they didn't seem to need. New Chone? He ripped a two-run double to right field. Those two runs really came in handy, especially when Felix started struggling and the game ended 8-7. Figgins added another hit off of Oakland closer Grant Balfour in the ninth inning to close out his second consecutive three-hit night.
Just in case you're playing at home, over the past two games, Chone Figgins is six for 10 with a double, a triple, a stolen base, four RBIs, and two runs scored. He has showed the ability to hit the ball to the gap, lay down multiple types of bunts, and most importantly, put runs on the board.
Chone Figgins isn't back. It would be inappropriate to characterize his slight resurgence as a return to anything. But maybe he can contribute. He could play a role in M's offense. Eric Wedge frankly expects him to do so. My expectations are still tempered, but Mariner fans can always hope. Go M's.
First of all, back to what? Well, I guess back to his Angels form. Back to when he used to annoy the crap out of Mariner fans when he wore a different uniform. Undoubtedly, Figgins has disappointed in a big way so far in his Mariner career. He flat out sucked for two years. .259 in 2010, .188 in 2011? Yeah, thats bad.
So maybe "back" isn't the right word. Maybe the better question is something like will Chone Figgins contribute regularly in 2012? So far, he has played well. Well by Chone Figgins standards at least. Friday and Saturday's games didn't come anywhere close to clearing his name with M's fans, but what it did do is get M's fans to stop trashing him for a bit.
Figgins probably couldn't have played better on Friday. Sure, he struck out looking in the first and missed played a ball in the lights that cost Tom Wilhelmsen a run, but everything else he did legitimately contributed to the Mariners' victory. A sac bunt turned into a sort of RBI bunt single in the third. Then he scored on a sac fly from Jesus Montero. In the fourth, he stepped up with Michael Saunders at third and ripped (yes, ripped. Check out the replay, he ripped it.) an RBI single up the middle for the M's fifth run. In the sixth, after the M's chased McCarthy, Figgins laid down a beautiful safety squeeze scoring Michael Saunders and landing him on first base with a multi-hit night. In the eighth, he gave the "oh shit, really?" face after looping a ball the other way to left field for his third hit of the game. He stole a base to put a cherry on top of a great game.
Sure that's just one game. But that's just it. It's one game. Figgins doesn't have games like this. It usually takes him a week to get three hits. For a three hour period, we saw a glimpse at what we paid for two years ago. Scrappy situational hitting. A few timely bunts. Hard, line-drive singles. Stolen bases. The only thing missing was a triple.
Then saturday happened.
Chone must have known I started this story early, because he kickstarted the M's attack by whacking a triple off of Bartolo Colon's fossil. The Mariners never get off to a good start offensively. Mostly, this thought comes from not having a leadoff hitter that delivered consistently. Apparently they have that now. At least for a little while. Thanks to Figgy's triple, the Mariners led for good two batters into the game.
Figgins struck out in the third, but then came to the plate with two out in the fourth with his team leading 5-0 for the second straight game. Old Chone Figgins definitely strikes out here. he wouldn't care about giving the M's a run that they didn't seem to need. New Chone? He ripped a two-run double to right field. Those two runs really came in handy, especially when Felix started struggling and the game ended 8-7. Figgins added another hit off of Oakland closer Grant Balfour in the ninth inning to close out his second consecutive three-hit night.
Just in case you're playing at home, over the past two games, Chone Figgins is six for 10 with a double, a triple, a stolen base, four RBIs, and two runs scored. He has showed the ability to hit the ball to the gap, lay down multiple types of bunts, and most importantly, put runs on the board.
Chone Figgins isn't back. It would be inappropriate to characterize his slight resurgence as a return to anything. But maybe he can contribute. He could play a role in M's offense. Eric Wedge frankly expects him to do so. My expectations are still tempered, but Mariner fans can always hope. Go M's.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Tokyo Drifted Back: Mariners A's Part Two
By Patrick
Part two? Yeah, this is technically the continuation of the series from Japan. That's why it only lasts two games. Maybe that's common knowledge, or maybe I just solved a problem you'd been intensely grappling with for weeks. Either way, you're welcome (Kobe Bryant voice).
Where were we? Oh right, A's versus M's. Fun stuff. Nine runs in two games in Japan. Wait, Patrick, which team scored nine runs in two games in Japan? Both. Combined. Yeah, that's what this rivalry has become. In 2002, it was the plot of Moneyball. Now, you would get laughed at for trying to film it. No one cares. Baseball cared so little that they outsourced the start of this series to Japan. Oh no, we're doing this for the good of the game and continuing to spread it to Japan. Haha good one. Bullshit. It does help the A's, in that they will have fewer home games and therefore don't have to attempt to sell tickets to as many games as in previous years. Slightly less embarrassing.
OK, but really, those games sucked. The scores were 3-1 and 4-1. The mariners had three hits against Bartolo Colon. Shades of 2009, 2010, and 2011. And Bartolo Colon's Cy Young years. Yeah, that happened. On the bright side, Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak went deep and Felix and Jason Vargas pitched admirably. And that's the end of the bright side pretty much. Both teams are 1-1. Both teams will throw the same pitchers to the mound, except with the matchups flipped. Let's get this over with.
April 6: Jason Vargas (0-0) vs. Brandon McCarthy (0-0)
Both guys looked great in Japan, but every starter looked good now that I think about it. McCarthy contained the M's pretty well, scattering hits and only making one mistake on Ackley's homer. Vargas got the hook with one out in the seventh, and then the bullpen imploded behind him. He's used to that by now though, so that's okay. Both of these guys pitched in their team's losses in Japan. Both will look to continue their momentum. I think each will surrender a few runs, but neither will get lit up, since its still the first week, where nobody hits. Six innings and three runs allowed for Vargas.
April 7: Felix (0-0) vs. Bartolo "the Fossil" Colon (1-0)
These two looked slightly better than Vargas and McCarthy in Japan, and consequently their teams won both of their starts. Colon especially stood out, as he worked eight innings for the win, allowing just one run on three hits. The guy's career was on life support two years ago. Must've had some strong paddles, especially since he's such a fat ass. I don't think Colon can reproduce Japan in his first start in front of his new home fans. Felix, on the other hand, feasts on oakland. He loves pitching against them. He'll roll out another gem. I expect him to go eight innings allowing less than two runs. The M's just need to hit for him.
Three to watch:
Yoenis Cespedes: Making his home debut, Cespedes hopes to garner as much attention as he did in Japan, where he hit the game winning jack against Shawn Kelley, who now plays in AAA. Lost in that success was his complete inability to hit the curveball in that series. That's definitely something to keep an eye on. As a rookie, he'll need to make continued adjustments to major league pitching. I think he has a ways to go, and Felix and Vargas handled him pretty well in Japan. Steady diet of curveballs for Yoenis.
Jesus Montero: Jesus got his first major league hit. That's good. He didn't do much anything else. Not as good. He has a good chance to entertain M's fans in this series by continuing to show some pop. With no Mike Carp, he's definitely the secondary power option and he'll hit fifth. Any chance he catches a game? Probably not. It would be interesting if he catches Hector Noesi a bunch this year, since the probably worked together in the minors in New York. Noesi's not pitching and Jesus probably won't catch. Maybe he breaks through with his first home run as a Mariner. We might need that to have a chance in game one.
Kyle Seager: Seager will likely start game one at third base, especially now that Chone Figgins will have to play left field for the foreseeable future. The interesting develop in Seager's case is that Alex Liddi made the big league roster instead of Carlos Peguero. That means that Jack Z considers Figgins an outfielder. That in turn clears up any competition for Seager at third for now. Which will test him. And he needs a test. This guy essentially skipped AAA because he played so well in Jackson last year. He's got a lot to prove in the majors, and this series presents an ideal opportunity for hid to do so. If he can get two hits, I'll be satisfied.
Series Outlook: After the offensive performance the M's put on in Japan, it's becoming harder and harder for me to be optimistic. However, I do like their chances any time Felix pitches, especially against a fossilized pitcher. Game one will be close. McCarthy is legit. Vargas has two sides. Since hitters are still getting adjusted, I don't think Vargas will get rocked, but he won't be sharp. McCarthy will pitch well, and Oakland will snatch game one (three, really) 5-3. Game two is a different story. Felix will absolutely lock on to the strike zone, and the A's will have trouble hitting anything. A complete game shutout is a stretch, but he'll go eight solid again, and the M's will figure Colon out, and win convincingly. I'll say 5-1. Go M's.
Part two? Yeah, this is technically the continuation of the series from Japan. That's why it only lasts two games. Maybe that's common knowledge, or maybe I just solved a problem you'd been intensely grappling with for weeks. Either way, you're welcome (Kobe Bryant voice).
Where were we? Oh right, A's versus M's. Fun stuff. Nine runs in two games in Japan. Wait, Patrick, which team scored nine runs in two games in Japan? Both. Combined. Yeah, that's what this rivalry has become. In 2002, it was the plot of Moneyball. Now, you would get laughed at for trying to film it. No one cares. Baseball cared so little that they outsourced the start of this series to Japan. Oh no, we're doing this for the good of the game and continuing to spread it to Japan. Haha good one. Bullshit. It does help the A's, in that they will have fewer home games and therefore don't have to attempt to sell tickets to as many games as in previous years. Slightly less embarrassing.
OK, but really, those games sucked. The scores were 3-1 and 4-1. The mariners had three hits against Bartolo Colon. Shades of 2009, 2010, and 2011. And Bartolo Colon's Cy Young years. Yeah, that happened. On the bright side, Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak went deep and Felix and Jason Vargas pitched admirably. And that's the end of the bright side pretty much. Both teams are 1-1. Both teams will throw the same pitchers to the mound, except with the matchups flipped. Let's get this over with.
April 6: Jason Vargas (0-0) vs. Brandon McCarthy (0-0)
Both guys looked great in Japan, but every starter looked good now that I think about it. McCarthy contained the M's pretty well, scattering hits and only making one mistake on Ackley's homer. Vargas got the hook with one out in the seventh, and then the bullpen imploded behind him. He's used to that by now though, so that's okay. Both of these guys pitched in their team's losses in Japan. Both will look to continue their momentum. I think each will surrender a few runs, but neither will get lit up, since its still the first week, where nobody hits. Six innings and three runs allowed for Vargas.
April 7: Felix (0-0) vs. Bartolo "the Fossil" Colon (1-0)
These two looked slightly better than Vargas and McCarthy in Japan, and consequently their teams won both of their starts. Colon especially stood out, as he worked eight innings for the win, allowing just one run on three hits. The guy's career was on life support two years ago. Must've had some strong paddles, especially since he's such a fat ass. I don't think Colon can reproduce Japan in his first start in front of his new home fans. Felix, on the other hand, feasts on oakland. He loves pitching against them. He'll roll out another gem. I expect him to go eight innings allowing less than two runs. The M's just need to hit for him.
Three to watch:
Yoenis Cespedes: Making his home debut, Cespedes hopes to garner as much attention as he did in Japan, where he hit the game winning jack against Shawn Kelley, who now plays in AAA. Lost in that success was his complete inability to hit the curveball in that series. That's definitely something to keep an eye on. As a rookie, he'll need to make continued adjustments to major league pitching. I think he has a ways to go, and Felix and Vargas handled him pretty well in Japan. Steady diet of curveballs for Yoenis.
Jesus Montero: Jesus got his first major league hit. That's good. He didn't do much anything else. Not as good. He has a good chance to entertain M's fans in this series by continuing to show some pop. With no Mike Carp, he's definitely the secondary power option and he'll hit fifth. Any chance he catches a game? Probably not. It would be interesting if he catches Hector Noesi a bunch this year, since the probably worked together in the minors in New York. Noesi's not pitching and Jesus probably won't catch. Maybe he breaks through with his first home run as a Mariner. We might need that to have a chance in game one.
Kyle Seager: Seager will likely start game one at third base, especially now that Chone Figgins will have to play left field for the foreseeable future. The interesting develop in Seager's case is that Alex Liddi made the big league roster instead of Carlos Peguero. That means that Jack Z considers Figgins an outfielder. That in turn clears up any competition for Seager at third for now. Which will test him. And he needs a test. This guy essentially skipped AAA because he played so well in Jackson last year. He's got a lot to prove in the majors, and this series presents an ideal opportunity for hid to do so. If he can get two hits, I'll be satisfied.
Series Outlook: After the offensive performance the M's put on in Japan, it's becoming harder and harder for me to be optimistic. However, I do like their chances any time Felix pitches, especially against a fossilized pitcher. Game one will be close. McCarthy is legit. Vargas has two sides. Since hitters are still getting adjusted, I don't think Vargas will get rocked, but he won't be sharp. McCarthy will pitch well, and Oakland will snatch game one (three, really) 5-3. Game two is a different story. Felix will absolutely lock on to the strike zone, and the A's will have trouble hitting anything. A complete game shutout is a stretch, but he'll go eight solid again, and the M's will figure Colon out, and win convincingly. I'll say 5-1. Go M's.
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
2012 Mariner Season Preview: Offense
By Patrick
Ah, the offense. Every Mariner fan's nightmare for three straight years. Eric Wedge has said he thinks the offense will take major steps forward this year, even going as far to say they might be league average. WHOA! Don't go throwing around such aggressive terms as decent, average, and mediocre until we see some results. Luckily, the Mariners showed that the offense improved when they split with the A's in Japan. Oh what's that? They suck still? Damn it. It's hard to compliment a team that scored four runs and needed extra innings for two of them on offensive prowess. Hopefully, Japan was just a minor hiccup on the path to redemption for the M's hitters.
Currently, the M's have 14 hitters on the roster, and they need to cut one to have the commonplace 13-man rotation. The cut is a no brainer to me. Alex Liddi still hasn't proved he's ready for big time, and needs more time in AAA to hone his hitting and fielding. Jack Z will cut him if he hasn't already. I'm going to preview the Mariners in their projected batting order and then do the bench.
Update: The M's have inexplicably optioned Carlos Peguero in favor of Alex Liddi. I guess they want shitty fielding and spotty power with the same amount of strikeouts. Screw that.
1. Chone Figgins, LF: Does anyone in Seattle like Chone Figgins? It's a bold but legitimate question. I hate him. He has done nothing but ruin a huge investment for two years and his time is pretty much up. Barring a miracle, he'll hit average at best this year and maybe help the M's every three games or so. He can play all over the field at below average levels, which helps and doesn't help. You can put him multiple places, but he'll suck wherever he plays.
Best-case Scenario: Figgins returns to Anaheim form, hits .300, and scores 100 runs for a suddenly potent M's offense. He finally is happy in his role and the Mariners feel good about having him under control for one more year.
Worst-case Scenario: He tanks again. Hitting .185 in May, he's yanked from the leadoff spot, which Ichiro takes back, and the M's make up another injury for him. They put him on the field again in July to try and trade him, there are no takers, and the M's have to eat his salary and cut him loose.
Most Likely: I hope to God for best-case, but I can't see it happening. Definitely something a lot closer to worst-case.
2. Dustin Ackley, 2B: The hope and future of the first half of Jack Z's plan rests with Ackley. He was the primary piece of the puzzle around which the M's will build in the next few years. Scouts league-wide rave about his talent, and they have good reason to do so. He's a beast, has a great beard and may be the M's only above-average player if everything goes to shit this year. In Ack We Trust.
Best-case Scenario: Ackley picks up where he left off last year, and tears it up in the first half, hitting .310. He backs up Robby Cano in the all-star game and the entire baseball world learns his name. He finishes around .300, with 85 RBIs and 15 homers.
Worst-case Scenario: Pitchers make adjustments to Ackley and he goes through a sophomore slump. Wedge moves him down in the order as he starts to regain confidence. Then, injury strikes, and no one knows what the future will hold for the offensive cornerstone of the franchise.
Most Likely: Ackley will probably hit about .290 and be the best offensive player in the lineup this season. Yikes. I think best-case is more likely.
3. Ichiro, RF: Coming off the worst season of his career by far in 2011, Ichiro will have to prove he's still a great player in 2012. Frankly, last year sucked with Ichiro. He didn't do anything right. He couldn't buy a break with the fans either, because he played like his usual selfish self most of the time. His move to the three-hole should help take some of the pressure off and maybe give him a fresh outlook. He's going to be facing huge expectations in the final year of his expensive contract.
Best-case Scenario: Ichiro is Ichiro again. He hits .320, goes back to the all-star game, and starts showing some of his power in the three-hole. He reinvents himself late in his career and becomes a formidable hitter once again.
Worst-case Scenario: He continues to decline, and bitches about hitting away from the leadoff spot. Seattle calls for his head, and he doesn't get a new contract in 2013, bringing an end to the tenure of the most polarizing athlete in Seattle sports history.
Most Likely: I think Ichiro will bounce back. Will he be vintage Ichiro? Maybe not. But I think he'll hit .300 again or at least adjust to the three-hole by hitting more homers and driving in runs. He'll be an all-star again because he's Japanese, and therefore only needs to play half-decent to garner the votes needed to start.
4. Justin Smoak, 1B: Justin's 2011 was riddled with injuries and mishaps. His father died in May, his thumbs got messed up at different times, and he took a grounder off the nose in August. Fucking brutal year for the Goose Creek Crusher. 2011 was supposed to be the year Smoak asserted himself as the gem of the Cliff Lee trade. Guess that's gonna have to be 2012. He did jack one in Japan, which was comforting.
Best-case Scenario: Justin finally makes the leap from what if to what is. He live up to the hype and cranks 25 homers to go with 100 RBIs and a .275 average. Solid, with the potential to become all-star caliber.
Worst-case Scenario: Injuries frustrate Smoak again. He can't stay healthy, and still can't make the progress that the M's need him to make. He ends up hitting sixth, and the roster still lacks a solid cleanup hitter.
Most Likely: Smoak will improve. He will approach the numbers I listed in best-case. And he will pan out. Patience, people.
5. Jesus Montero, DH: Well, it's become pretty clear that this guy can't catch. Pineda can't stay healthy and Montero is a DH. Fair trade. Sike! Suck it, Yankees! What Montero can do without a doubt is rake. Not like clean the yard in the fall, which I'm sure he can also do, but hit the ball hard. He can do that quite well. It's his rookie year, so expectations must be tempered. However, I think he can do great things this year and prove his value for the future.
Best-case Scenario: Jesus takes the MLB by storm and combines with Smoak and Ackley to form the offensive core of the future for the M's. He cranks 20+ jacks as well, and wins rookie of the year.
Worst-case Scenario: Montero struggles immensely due to his limited experience and huge hype. He never catches a game, and goes to AAA in June. He hits below .240 and doesn't change the M's poor hitting culture.
Most Likely: Jesus will have a good year. I don't think he'll be rookie of the year (see Moore, Matt or Harper, Bryce), but he could finish top five and still provide a huge lift for the Mariners lineup. He'll be solid, which is what the M's need: solid, consistent hitters that can provide offense for years to come.
6. Kyle Seager, 3B: Seager started game two in Japan, and had little success, much like the rest of the Mariner lineup. Fun stuff. He's a solid option at three infield positions, making him a utility infielder when everyone is healthy (come on Carp and Guti). For now, he'll split time with Casper Wells, and Figgins will switch positions accordingly.
Best-case Scenario: Seager hits .275 and solidifies himself as a major league player. He fills the utility infielder role admirably, and he shows the potential to be an eight or nine hitter on the future M's that will get back to the playoffs in 2015.
Worst-case Scenario: Seager shows his remarkable quick jump to the majors was way too fast, and he's in AAA when Carp and Guti come back at the end of April. He struggles to solidify any sort of role with the M's, and does most of his damage in September when the rosters expand.
Most Likely: Seager will stay in Seattle most of the year and maybe all of it. He's probably not the third baseman on the 2015 squad, but he'll be a decent stop gap ad show some nice flashes while never starting on a regular basis.
7. Miguel Olivo, C: Big Mike Olive doesn't have a future with the Mariners, but the Mariners don't have a viable solution at catcher yet, so Miguel is fine for 2012. He's the most veteran offensive player besides Ichiro, and Ichiro doesn't count because he never leads. So Olivo has that going for him. He also has decent power. He also swings and misses a lot. Like A LOT. Like most in the league by percentage in 2011. Shit. That's awful. Please be better Miguel.
Best-case Scenario: Olivo cranks out about 15 dingers and manages to catch 140 games. That would of course require him staying healthy, which could be tricky for a catcher his age. His veteran presence helps Adam Moore along, and maybe Moore becomes his successor. Or John Jaso.
Worst-case Scenario: Miguel misses the pitches he cranked for jacks last year. His knees give out, and the Mariners have to put him on the DL. He forces John Jaso into duty that in turn casts suspicion on Jaso's abilities, and the Mariners still don't have a catcher.
Most Likely: It could be a long year for Olivo. I could see him breaking down this year. I think he'll struggle at the plate, hitting 10 homers and only .215 or .220.
8. Michael Saunders, CF: It's officially sink or swim year for Michael Saunders. If he sucks again, his goose is officially cooked. Two goose references in one article? Wow, its late. But really, Saunders faces a ton of pressure this year, and Guti's continuing injury issues has given him his opportunity. Deliver, or get cut. Pretty simple.
Best-case Scenario: Saunders finally develops some consistency at the plate with the help of his new swing coach, and Eric Wedge gains faith in him. He doesn't see AAA, even after Guti and Carp come back. He becomes a solid fourth outfielder, and stays healthy so he can step in for the oft-injured Gutierrez in center.
Worst-case Scenario: He hits like he has in every previous major league stint. He keeps sucking and his defense declines. The M's send him down and cut him by June.
Most Likely: Wow. Tough one. I really should have faith in Saunders, because the organization does. I just can't shake my preconceptions though. Prove me wrong, Condor. The M's cut him by July.
9. Brendan Ryan, SS: What should we do about Brendan Ryan. He really struggles with injuries, but he definitely is a great guy to have around the clubhouse. His work ethic is solid, and Wedge has been everything in a manager that Tony Larussa wasn't for him. He had a vicious May last year, but then tapered off back to around where we can expect him to be. Unless he can reproduce May, he'll forever be a league average shortstop, which doesn't make you a great baseball player.
Best-case Scenario: May happens again. Except, you know, for longer than May. Like over the course of a whole season. He moves up to the two-hole accordingly and becomes the M's most entertaining player. Maybe a Gold Glove?
Worst-case Scenario: May doesn't happen. The rest of the year happens. He can't stay healthy and sucks when he plays. Munenori Kawasaki takes over the starting job and Ryan becomes nothing more than a backup shortstop.
Most Likely: I think Ryan will split the difference. He won't lose his job outright, but he'll hit the DL once or twice and never really contribute at a high level consistently. He'll be decent. I'm thinking .240 range.
Bench
10. John Jaso, C/1B: Jeff Sullivan wrote that John Jaso only had one spring training hit as of Tuesday. Yikes. Not good. We don't know a whole lot about Jaso. He'll be a serviceable backup catcher I guess. He did help us get rid of a sodomist on our roster. Which is always good. We don't miss you Josh Lueke. We have Dan Cortes. What? Dan Cortes is gone? Damn it, I keep forgetting. Whatever.
Best-case Scenario: Jaso gains confidence with the help of having a wily grandfather starting in front of him. Olivo goes on the DL, and Jaso plays the role of stop gap solution admirably, and maybe even proves himself as a potential catcher of the future.
Worst-case Scenario: Jaso can't do jack shit and dwells in the minors all year, with Adam Moore replacing him on the roster. That would be a waste of a sodomist if you ask me.
Most Likely: A lot closer to worst-case. I don't have a lot of faith in Jaso.
11. Munenori Kawasaki: What a pleasant surprise Kawasaki has been in spring training. The guy's hitting .450! That's incredible. He showed some gap power Tuesday against Colorado as well, ripping a triple. Brendan Ryan better watch his back, because Kawasaki means business, and could lock down the shortstop job if he hits half as well as he has in spring training during the regular season.
Best-case Scenario: Kawasaki is the starting shortstop by May and holds that job down for most of the year. He hits for a high average, and provides some excitement from the bottom of the order, teaming with Figgins to wreck havoc in the nine-hole to leadoff spot connection.
Worst-case Scenario: Kawasaki's spring is fluky. He disappoints and struggles to hold his roster spot. He spends time in AAA late in the year, and only plays a significant role once the rosters expand in September.
Most Likely: Watch out for Kawasaki. I have tons of faith in him after his fantastic spring, and I think he's gonna impress some people. I fully expect him to get as many reps at shortstop as Brendan Ryan this year. Mark it down.
12. Casper Wells: Casper came to Seattle at the deadline last year, and preformed admirably until getting beaned by Brandon Morrow (fuck his couch). I actually attended Wells' debut and the game where Morrow drilled him. Wells will be remembered in 2012 for hitting a homer in four consecutive games, getting halfway to Griffey's record. He's projected as the fourth outfielder, and since he's not a pure center fielder like Saunders, he still is the fourth guy even with Guti injured.
Best-case Scenario: Casper's balance problems since the beaning resolve themselves and he continues ripping the ball. The Fister trade keeps looking better and better, as Wells locks down the starting left field job with Mike Carp struggling in the field and at the plate. Wells shows that he can start for a playoff team, which the Mariners need more than anything.
Worst-case Scenario: His balance problems linger, as do injury issues that he picks up midseason. He doesn't take the next step to starter that the organization needs him to make, and he sees time in AAA and on the DL.
Most Likely: Wells is young, so improvement will be expected. I think he can grab left field from Carp, but he'll need to stay healthy and focused. I don't think he'll have a breakout year, but I think he can certainly lay the foundation for one in 2013.
13. Carlos Peguero: Damn it. Carlos Peguero is back. RIP Greg Halman. Wish you were here. Now that that's over with, we have to live with a free swinging slugger who hits the lowest and fastest home runs ever and strikeouts out at an alarmingly frequent rate. Peguero has cranked five homers in the spring, and had four hits yesterday. Maybe he has some potential after all.
Best-case Scenario: Peguero hits his high ceiling, and adjusts to the mysterious curve ball thing pitchers keep throwing at him. His power earns him a consistent spot in left field and platooning at DH with Montero. He cranks fifteen jacks in half a season, and shows he can be a six-hole guy for the future Mariners.
Worst-case Scenario: More of the same. Month-long flirtations with the majors, followed by rapid descents to the minors and a call up anytime an outfielder gets hurt. Purgatory essentially. That would suck. Too much I-5 driving for me.
Most Likely: Ultimately, spring doesn't mean much. Pegs will be a purgatory guy all season long.
The Mariners have two key cogs on the DL right now in Mike Carp and Franklin Gutierrez. We don't know exactly when they will come back, but when we find out, I'll write a separate preview for them. Also, I'm 0-for-1 with my demotion picks. Shawn Kelley went down to Tacoma yesterday. I thought for sure he'd play a big role. My last two picks are Lucas Luetge and Alex Liddi. Liddi I know I'll get right. Luetge's an anomaly. Wish me luck. Wow, I wrote this last night and missed on all three of my projected cuts. Whatever. Go M's.
Ah, the offense. Every Mariner fan's nightmare for three straight years. Eric Wedge has said he thinks the offense will take major steps forward this year, even going as far to say they might be league average. WHOA! Don't go throwing around such aggressive terms as decent, average, and mediocre until we see some results. Luckily, the Mariners showed that the offense improved when they split with the A's in Japan. Oh what's that? They suck still? Damn it. It's hard to compliment a team that scored four runs and needed extra innings for two of them on offensive prowess. Hopefully, Japan was just a minor hiccup on the path to redemption for the M's hitters.
Currently, the M's have 14 hitters on the roster, and they need to cut one to have the commonplace 13-man rotation. The cut is a no brainer to me. Alex Liddi still hasn't proved he's ready for big time, and needs more time in AAA to hone his hitting and fielding. Jack Z will cut him if he hasn't already. I'm going to preview the Mariners in their projected batting order and then do the bench.
Update: The M's have inexplicably optioned Carlos Peguero in favor of Alex Liddi. I guess they want shitty fielding and spotty power with the same amount of strikeouts. Screw that.
1. Chone Figgins, LF: Does anyone in Seattle like Chone Figgins? It's a bold but legitimate question. I hate him. He has done nothing but ruin a huge investment for two years and his time is pretty much up. Barring a miracle, he'll hit average at best this year and maybe help the M's every three games or so. He can play all over the field at below average levels, which helps and doesn't help. You can put him multiple places, but he'll suck wherever he plays.
Best-case Scenario: Figgins returns to Anaheim form, hits .300, and scores 100 runs for a suddenly potent M's offense. He finally is happy in his role and the Mariners feel good about having him under control for one more year.
Worst-case Scenario: He tanks again. Hitting .185 in May, he's yanked from the leadoff spot, which Ichiro takes back, and the M's make up another injury for him. They put him on the field again in July to try and trade him, there are no takers, and the M's have to eat his salary and cut him loose.
Most Likely: I hope to God for best-case, but I can't see it happening. Definitely something a lot closer to worst-case.
2. Dustin Ackley, 2B: The hope and future of the first half of Jack Z's plan rests with Ackley. He was the primary piece of the puzzle around which the M's will build in the next few years. Scouts league-wide rave about his talent, and they have good reason to do so. He's a beast, has a great beard and may be the M's only above-average player if everything goes to shit this year. In Ack We Trust.
Best-case Scenario: Ackley picks up where he left off last year, and tears it up in the first half, hitting .310. He backs up Robby Cano in the all-star game and the entire baseball world learns his name. He finishes around .300, with 85 RBIs and 15 homers.
Worst-case Scenario: Pitchers make adjustments to Ackley and he goes through a sophomore slump. Wedge moves him down in the order as he starts to regain confidence. Then, injury strikes, and no one knows what the future will hold for the offensive cornerstone of the franchise.
Most Likely: Ackley will probably hit about .290 and be the best offensive player in the lineup this season. Yikes. I think best-case is more likely.
3. Ichiro, RF: Coming off the worst season of his career by far in 2011, Ichiro will have to prove he's still a great player in 2012. Frankly, last year sucked with Ichiro. He didn't do anything right. He couldn't buy a break with the fans either, because he played like his usual selfish self most of the time. His move to the three-hole should help take some of the pressure off and maybe give him a fresh outlook. He's going to be facing huge expectations in the final year of his expensive contract.
Best-case Scenario: Ichiro is Ichiro again. He hits .320, goes back to the all-star game, and starts showing some of his power in the three-hole. He reinvents himself late in his career and becomes a formidable hitter once again.
Worst-case Scenario: He continues to decline, and bitches about hitting away from the leadoff spot. Seattle calls for his head, and he doesn't get a new contract in 2013, bringing an end to the tenure of the most polarizing athlete in Seattle sports history.
Most Likely: I think Ichiro will bounce back. Will he be vintage Ichiro? Maybe not. But I think he'll hit .300 again or at least adjust to the three-hole by hitting more homers and driving in runs. He'll be an all-star again because he's Japanese, and therefore only needs to play half-decent to garner the votes needed to start.
4. Justin Smoak, 1B: Justin's 2011 was riddled with injuries and mishaps. His father died in May, his thumbs got messed up at different times, and he took a grounder off the nose in August. Fucking brutal year for the Goose Creek Crusher. 2011 was supposed to be the year Smoak asserted himself as the gem of the Cliff Lee trade. Guess that's gonna have to be 2012. He did jack one in Japan, which was comforting.
Best-case Scenario: Justin finally makes the leap from what if to what is. He live up to the hype and cranks 25 homers to go with 100 RBIs and a .275 average. Solid, with the potential to become all-star caliber.
Worst-case Scenario: Injuries frustrate Smoak again. He can't stay healthy, and still can't make the progress that the M's need him to make. He ends up hitting sixth, and the roster still lacks a solid cleanup hitter.
Most Likely: Smoak will improve. He will approach the numbers I listed in best-case. And he will pan out. Patience, people.
5. Jesus Montero, DH: Well, it's become pretty clear that this guy can't catch. Pineda can't stay healthy and Montero is a DH. Fair trade. Sike! Suck it, Yankees! What Montero can do without a doubt is rake. Not like clean the yard in the fall, which I'm sure he can also do, but hit the ball hard. He can do that quite well. It's his rookie year, so expectations must be tempered. However, I think he can do great things this year and prove his value for the future.
Best-case Scenario: Jesus takes the MLB by storm and combines with Smoak and Ackley to form the offensive core of the future for the M's. He cranks 20+ jacks as well, and wins rookie of the year.
Worst-case Scenario: Montero struggles immensely due to his limited experience and huge hype. He never catches a game, and goes to AAA in June. He hits below .240 and doesn't change the M's poor hitting culture.
Most Likely: Jesus will have a good year. I don't think he'll be rookie of the year (see Moore, Matt or Harper, Bryce), but he could finish top five and still provide a huge lift for the Mariners lineup. He'll be solid, which is what the M's need: solid, consistent hitters that can provide offense for years to come.
6. Kyle Seager, 3B: Seager started game two in Japan, and had little success, much like the rest of the Mariner lineup. Fun stuff. He's a solid option at three infield positions, making him a utility infielder when everyone is healthy (come on Carp and Guti). For now, he'll split time with Casper Wells, and Figgins will switch positions accordingly.
Best-case Scenario: Seager hits .275 and solidifies himself as a major league player. He fills the utility infielder role admirably, and he shows the potential to be an eight or nine hitter on the future M's that will get back to the playoffs in 2015.
Worst-case Scenario: Seager shows his remarkable quick jump to the majors was way too fast, and he's in AAA when Carp and Guti come back at the end of April. He struggles to solidify any sort of role with the M's, and does most of his damage in September when the rosters expand.
Most Likely: Seager will stay in Seattle most of the year and maybe all of it. He's probably not the third baseman on the 2015 squad, but he'll be a decent stop gap ad show some nice flashes while never starting on a regular basis.
7. Miguel Olivo, C: Big Mike Olive doesn't have a future with the Mariners, but the Mariners don't have a viable solution at catcher yet, so Miguel is fine for 2012. He's the most veteran offensive player besides Ichiro, and Ichiro doesn't count because he never leads. So Olivo has that going for him. He also has decent power. He also swings and misses a lot. Like A LOT. Like most in the league by percentage in 2011. Shit. That's awful. Please be better Miguel.
Best-case Scenario: Olivo cranks out about 15 dingers and manages to catch 140 games. That would of course require him staying healthy, which could be tricky for a catcher his age. His veteran presence helps Adam Moore along, and maybe Moore becomes his successor. Or John Jaso.
Worst-case Scenario: Miguel misses the pitches he cranked for jacks last year. His knees give out, and the Mariners have to put him on the DL. He forces John Jaso into duty that in turn casts suspicion on Jaso's abilities, and the Mariners still don't have a catcher.
Most Likely: It could be a long year for Olivo. I could see him breaking down this year. I think he'll struggle at the plate, hitting 10 homers and only .215 or .220.
8. Michael Saunders, CF: It's officially sink or swim year for Michael Saunders. If he sucks again, his goose is officially cooked. Two goose references in one article? Wow, its late. But really, Saunders faces a ton of pressure this year, and Guti's continuing injury issues has given him his opportunity. Deliver, or get cut. Pretty simple.
Best-case Scenario: Saunders finally develops some consistency at the plate with the help of his new swing coach, and Eric Wedge gains faith in him. He doesn't see AAA, even after Guti and Carp come back. He becomes a solid fourth outfielder, and stays healthy so he can step in for the oft-injured Gutierrez in center.
Worst-case Scenario: He hits like he has in every previous major league stint. He keeps sucking and his defense declines. The M's send him down and cut him by June.
Most Likely: Wow. Tough one. I really should have faith in Saunders, because the organization does. I just can't shake my preconceptions though. Prove me wrong, Condor. The M's cut him by July.
9. Brendan Ryan, SS: What should we do about Brendan Ryan. He really struggles with injuries, but he definitely is a great guy to have around the clubhouse. His work ethic is solid, and Wedge has been everything in a manager that Tony Larussa wasn't for him. He had a vicious May last year, but then tapered off back to around where we can expect him to be. Unless he can reproduce May, he'll forever be a league average shortstop, which doesn't make you a great baseball player.
Best-case Scenario: May happens again. Except, you know, for longer than May. Like over the course of a whole season. He moves up to the two-hole accordingly and becomes the M's most entertaining player. Maybe a Gold Glove?
Worst-case Scenario: May doesn't happen. The rest of the year happens. He can't stay healthy and sucks when he plays. Munenori Kawasaki takes over the starting job and Ryan becomes nothing more than a backup shortstop.
Most Likely: I think Ryan will split the difference. He won't lose his job outright, but he'll hit the DL once or twice and never really contribute at a high level consistently. He'll be decent. I'm thinking .240 range.
Bench
10. John Jaso, C/1B: Jeff Sullivan wrote that John Jaso only had one spring training hit as of Tuesday. Yikes. Not good. We don't know a whole lot about Jaso. He'll be a serviceable backup catcher I guess. He did help us get rid of a sodomist on our roster. Which is always good. We don't miss you Josh Lueke. We have Dan Cortes. What? Dan Cortes is gone? Damn it, I keep forgetting. Whatever.
Best-case Scenario: Jaso gains confidence with the help of having a wily grandfather starting in front of him. Olivo goes on the DL, and Jaso plays the role of stop gap solution admirably, and maybe even proves himself as a potential catcher of the future.
Worst-case Scenario: Jaso can't do jack shit and dwells in the minors all year, with Adam Moore replacing him on the roster. That would be a waste of a sodomist if you ask me.
Most Likely: A lot closer to worst-case. I don't have a lot of faith in Jaso.
11. Munenori Kawasaki: What a pleasant surprise Kawasaki has been in spring training. The guy's hitting .450! That's incredible. He showed some gap power Tuesday against Colorado as well, ripping a triple. Brendan Ryan better watch his back, because Kawasaki means business, and could lock down the shortstop job if he hits half as well as he has in spring training during the regular season.
Best-case Scenario: Kawasaki is the starting shortstop by May and holds that job down for most of the year. He hits for a high average, and provides some excitement from the bottom of the order, teaming with Figgins to wreck havoc in the nine-hole to leadoff spot connection.
Worst-case Scenario: Kawasaki's spring is fluky. He disappoints and struggles to hold his roster spot. He spends time in AAA late in the year, and only plays a significant role once the rosters expand in September.
Most Likely: Watch out for Kawasaki. I have tons of faith in him after his fantastic spring, and I think he's gonna impress some people. I fully expect him to get as many reps at shortstop as Brendan Ryan this year. Mark it down.
12. Casper Wells: Casper came to Seattle at the deadline last year, and preformed admirably until getting beaned by Brandon Morrow (fuck his couch). I actually attended Wells' debut and the game where Morrow drilled him. Wells will be remembered in 2012 for hitting a homer in four consecutive games, getting halfway to Griffey's record. He's projected as the fourth outfielder, and since he's not a pure center fielder like Saunders, he still is the fourth guy even with Guti injured.
Best-case Scenario: Casper's balance problems since the beaning resolve themselves and he continues ripping the ball. The Fister trade keeps looking better and better, as Wells locks down the starting left field job with Mike Carp struggling in the field and at the plate. Wells shows that he can start for a playoff team, which the Mariners need more than anything.
Worst-case Scenario: His balance problems linger, as do injury issues that he picks up midseason. He doesn't take the next step to starter that the organization needs him to make, and he sees time in AAA and on the DL.
Most Likely: Wells is young, so improvement will be expected. I think he can grab left field from Carp, but he'll need to stay healthy and focused. I don't think he'll have a breakout year, but I think he can certainly lay the foundation for one in 2013.
13. Carlos Peguero: Damn it. Carlos Peguero is back. RIP Greg Halman. Wish you were here. Now that that's over with, we have to live with a free swinging slugger who hits the lowest and fastest home runs ever and strikeouts out at an alarmingly frequent rate. Peguero has cranked five homers in the spring, and had four hits yesterday. Maybe he has some potential after all.
Best-case Scenario: Peguero hits his high ceiling, and adjusts to the mysterious curve ball thing pitchers keep throwing at him. His power earns him a consistent spot in left field and platooning at DH with Montero. He cranks fifteen jacks in half a season, and shows he can be a six-hole guy for the future Mariners.
Worst-case Scenario: More of the same. Month-long flirtations with the majors, followed by rapid descents to the minors and a call up anytime an outfielder gets hurt. Purgatory essentially. That would suck. Too much I-5 driving for me.
Most Likely: Ultimately, spring doesn't mean much. Pegs will be a purgatory guy all season long.
The Mariners have two key cogs on the DL right now in Mike Carp and Franklin Gutierrez. We don't know exactly when they will come back, but when we find out, I'll write a separate preview for them. Also, I'm 0-for-1 with my demotion picks. Shawn Kelley went down to Tacoma yesterday. I thought for sure he'd play a big role. My last two picks are Lucas Luetge and Alex Liddi. Liddi I know I'll get right. Luetge's an anomaly. Wish me luck. Wow, I wrote this last night and missed on all three of my projected cuts. Whatever. Go M's.
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
2012 Mariner Season Preview: Rotation
Unlike the bullpen or the lineup or the bench, the starting rotation for the M’s has been set since before Japan and should stay that way for at least a month or two. In the perfect world, Millwood and Vargas will both not be Mariners by September and Danny Hultzen and James Paxton will be.
1. Felix Hernandez: What is there to say about Felix? He’s a pretty good pitcher. He HAS to carry this rotation, absolutely has to. Something to take note of, his velocity has been down a bit this spring; he is sitting in the low 90 range on his fastball compared to 94 of last year. This happened in Japan and it happened in the start he made against the Rockies on April 2. It didn’t impact his performance, but if he goes down with an injury, we are screwed.
Best Case- Felix does his thing like usual, puts up over 200 innings, 200 K’s, a sub 3 ERA and wins like 17 games because the M’s offense realizes how spoiled they are to have him. He is in contention for another Cy Young and the Yankees pursue him ridiculously hard just to be laughed at by Jack Z.
Worst Case- His drop in velocity signals some arm issue, similar to one that is ailing Michael Pineda right now, and he spends some time on the DL and can’t bounce back to his previous dominant self.
Most Likely- He is King Felix; he will be fine and spoil us with the beauty of his pitching.
2. Jason Vargas: Call me stubborn (You would not be the hundredth person to do that), but I was not as impressed with Jason Vargas in Japan as some of you were. What I saw was typical Jason Vargas against a crappy lineup. He threw strikes, kept the hitters off balance and was very successful. I was not very surprised that he did an excellent job. He has that talent; he just needs to keep that same level of execution throughout the year. He is the M’s crown jewel for dealing around the trade deadline and hopefully he can bring in some bats.
Best Case- He keeps up the level of performance he showed in Japan and is one of the most attractive starting pitchers at the deadline and he is moved for some quality prospects.
Worst Case- He goes back to being super inconsistent and hovers around a .500 winning percentage. He stays with the M’s all year and doesn’t turn into prospects.
Most Likely- More towards the worst-case scenario, as I still feel like he is way too inconsistent to be an attractive option for a team at the deadline.
3. Hector Noesi: This is the biggest question coming into this season: can Noesi become a quality starter or will he be relegated to the bullpen? I feel like he has the potential to compete for a rotation spot once the Big Three get here. He struggled out of the 'pen last year for the Yankees, but hopefully with a helpful dose of SafeCo Field and the confidence Wedge has in him will allow him to settle down and show his talent.
Best Case- Noesi is able to turn his talent into results and becomes a reliable option after Vargas and Felix. He then becomes a fixture in the back end of the rotation, pushing out Erasmo Ramirez.
Worst Case- He struggles out of the gate and loses any confidence he had. He then either gets pushed back into the bullpen or back to Tacoma to figure out his issues.
Most Likely- Coming from New York with the media and Jetstream in right field, he should be able to keep the ball in the park and should become a solid 3rd starter.
Blake Beavan: What is there to say about Blake Beavan? He is so meh. He throws a large number of strikes and doesn’t have great stuff. There is nothing interesting or sexy about him. What I want to see out of him is more ground balls. When you pitch to contact like Beavan, you need your defense to play well behind you. Ground balls turn into outs much more than fly balls, which have the potential to be home runs. If he can fill up the zone and keep the ball on the ground, I will call this year a success. Iwakuma and Furbush are always lurking in the bullpen to take his spot though.
Best case- Beavan is able to miss more bats and keep the ball on the ground, resulting in a very successful year and making him an attractive candidate for a third year in the rotation before the Big Three get here.
Worst Case- Beavan stays his meh self, gets hit hard consistently and is moved to the bullpen for Iwakuma and sits there all year.
Most Likely- A compromise! I think he will stay his meh self, but will pitch well enough to hold down this spot all year but will be forced elsewhere with the arrival of Paxton and Hultzen.
Kevin Millwood: Honestly, I don’t really care about what happens to Kevin Millwood. No offense to him, but his time in Seattle is going to be less than a year almost no matter what. If he pitches well, he could be shipped somewhere for prospects. If he doesn’t pitch well he can be cut and the M’s lose a little bit of money. Oh well. But he is an old veteran who can hopefully make an impression on some of the kids before he leaves.
Best Case- He continues his absurd success from Spring Training and is one of the M’s more consistent starters who then gets moved at the deadline and brings in some young bats.
Worst Case- He sucks, like Jeff Weaver sucks or his arm explodes and the M’s eat his salary while he goes and coaches somewhere.
Most Likely- If he splits these two roads and is mediocre, like I think he will be, he will be the first one to be cut to make room for a Hultzen or Paxton. Go M's.
1. Felix Hernandez: What is there to say about Felix? He’s a pretty good pitcher. He HAS to carry this rotation, absolutely has to. Something to take note of, his velocity has been down a bit this spring; he is sitting in the low 90 range on his fastball compared to 94 of last year. This happened in Japan and it happened in the start he made against the Rockies on April 2. It didn’t impact his performance, but if he goes down with an injury, we are screwed.
Best Case- Felix does his thing like usual, puts up over 200 innings, 200 K’s, a sub 3 ERA and wins like 17 games because the M’s offense realizes how spoiled they are to have him. He is in contention for another Cy Young and the Yankees pursue him ridiculously hard just to be laughed at by Jack Z.
Worst Case- His drop in velocity signals some arm issue, similar to one that is ailing Michael Pineda right now, and he spends some time on the DL and can’t bounce back to his previous dominant self.
Most Likely- He is King Felix; he will be fine and spoil us with the beauty of his pitching.
2. Jason Vargas: Call me stubborn (You would not be the hundredth person to do that), but I was not as impressed with Jason Vargas in Japan as some of you were. What I saw was typical Jason Vargas against a crappy lineup. He threw strikes, kept the hitters off balance and was very successful. I was not very surprised that he did an excellent job. He has that talent; he just needs to keep that same level of execution throughout the year. He is the M’s crown jewel for dealing around the trade deadline and hopefully he can bring in some bats.
Best Case- He keeps up the level of performance he showed in Japan and is one of the most attractive starting pitchers at the deadline and he is moved for some quality prospects.
Worst Case- He goes back to being super inconsistent and hovers around a .500 winning percentage. He stays with the M’s all year and doesn’t turn into prospects.
Most Likely- More towards the worst-case scenario, as I still feel like he is way too inconsistent to be an attractive option for a team at the deadline.
3. Hector Noesi: This is the biggest question coming into this season: can Noesi become a quality starter or will he be relegated to the bullpen? I feel like he has the potential to compete for a rotation spot once the Big Three get here. He struggled out of the 'pen last year for the Yankees, but hopefully with a helpful dose of SafeCo Field and the confidence Wedge has in him will allow him to settle down and show his talent.
Best Case- Noesi is able to turn his talent into results and becomes a reliable option after Vargas and Felix. He then becomes a fixture in the back end of the rotation, pushing out Erasmo Ramirez.
Worst Case- He struggles out of the gate and loses any confidence he had. He then either gets pushed back into the bullpen or back to Tacoma to figure out his issues.
Most Likely- Coming from New York with the media and Jetstream in right field, he should be able to keep the ball in the park and should become a solid 3rd starter.
Blake Beavan: What is there to say about Blake Beavan? He is so meh. He throws a large number of strikes and doesn’t have great stuff. There is nothing interesting or sexy about him. What I want to see out of him is more ground balls. When you pitch to contact like Beavan, you need your defense to play well behind you. Ground balls turn into outs much more than fly balls, which have the potential to be home runs. If he can fill up the zone and keep the ball on the ground, I will call this year a success. Iwakuma and Furbush are always lurking in the bullpen to take his spot though.
Best case- Beavan is able to miss more bats and keep the ball on the ground, resulting in a very successful year and making him an attractive candidate for a third year in the rotation before the Big Three get here.
Worst Case- Beavan stays his meh self, gets hit hard consistently and is moved to the bullpen for Iwakuma and sits there all year.
Most Likely- A compromise! I think he will stay his meh self, but will pitch well enough to hold down this spot all year but will be forced elsewhere with the arrival of Paxton and Hultzen.
Kevin Millwood: Honestly, I don’t really care about what happens to Kevin Millwood. No offense to him, but his time in Seattle is going to be less than a year almost no matter what. If he pitches well, he could be shipped somewhere for prospects. If he doesn’t pitch well he can be cut and the M’s lose a little bit of money. Oh well. But he is an old veteran who can hopefully make an impression on some of the kids before he leaves.
Best Case- He continues his absurd success from Spring Training and is one of the M’s more consistent starters who then gets moved at the deadline and brings in some young bats.
Worst Case- He sucks, like Jeff Weaver sucks or his arm explodes and the M’s eat his salary while he goes and coaches somewhere.
Most Likely- If he splits these two roads and is mediocre, like I think he will be, he will be the first one to be cut to make room for a Hultzen or Paxton. Go M's.
Monday, April 2, 2012
2012 Mariner Season Preview: Bullpen
By Patrick
As of the Japan series, the Mariners had narrowed their bullpen, projected to be a seven-arm stable, to nine men. This is good for this post, since I like doing guesswork more than projections.
So far in the 2012 regular season (read: Japan games), five of the nine relievers have pitched. Some impressed, guaranteeing a spot on the 25-man roster, and a few disappointed, leaving a cloud of doubt over their heads. Generally though, appearing in one of the two games in Japan meant that Eric Wedge trusted these five relievers, and plans to use them in the future. I'll pick the seven I see making the 25-man squad, and then project the kind of season I expect them to have.
The cuts:
9. Lucas Luetge: I just don't see it from this rule-5 selection. He has had great spring, allowing just two runs in four hits in nearly seven innings of work, but the bullpen is just too crowded for an unproven new guy to step in. The names he's competing with, Sherrill, Delabar, Wilhelmsen, Furbush; all of these guys are known entities within the organization with experience with the M's in 2011. I can't see Luetge taking the spot of one of these guys. He will be released, and go back to the Brewers.
8. Erasmo Ramirez: In two starts this spring, Ramirez has shined, allowing just one run in seven innings. But looking big picture, why start this guy's clock now just to shove him into a rarely used long relief spot? Erasmo is 21 and will turn 22 next month. It's fair to say his best baseball is still ahead of him. So for now, breeding him to start in Tacoma makes more sense than potentially derailing his career by shelving him in the 'pen. If one of the Mariners' starters struggles, Ramirez could replace them in the rotation if he gets more practice with the Rainiers.
The Long Relievers: You're a starter, but you suck too much to start.
7. Charlie Furbush: Many thought that one of the centerpieces of the Doug Fister trade had a chance to echo his role from the end of 2011 and grab the fifth starter spot for the M's this spring. Didn't quite pan out that way, as the additions of Hector Noesi and Kevin Millwood quashed any chance for Furbush to sneak into the rotation. Combine that with the fact that Furbush didn't make a start this spring, and he has long relief written all over him. Which is fine, since the M's need quality innings-eaters out of the bullpen. Furbush probably will consistently appear in the fifth or sixth innings when a Mariner starter struggles and he's needed to chew up some time and minimize damage.
Best-case Scenario: Furbush shines in multiple appearances in April and is upgraded to a consistent seventh or eighth inning role. He holds down that spot for a while, and then when Hector Noesi needs some more time in AAA by June, Furbush moves into the rotation where he records a .500 record with an ERA a tick under 4.00.
Worst-case Scenario: Furbush sucks in three straight performances in April and repeatedly gets tagged for extra-base hits. The Mariners bury him deep in the bullpen, and designate him for assignment in mid-May, admitting that Detroit may have won the Fister deal.
More Likely: Best-case Scenario
6. Hisashi Iwakuma: I'm really disappointed to be writing this. Iwakuma has had a terrible spring. If I had to pick a letdown in Peoria from an M's perspective, I would pick the I-man. To make matters worse, he got rocked in front of his home country in the exhibition against the Hanshin Tigers. This guy won the Japanese Cy Young in 2008, was named all-tournament at the World Baseball Classic in 2009, and now sucks in 2012. TMS. Typical Mariner Shit.
Best-case Scenario: Iwakuma pitches more than Furbush in long relief, and impresses, finally starting to miss some bats. He fixes his weird issues with his mechanics and gets promoted to the rotation in May, replacing Noesi. He then becomes the solid number three starter before Jason Vargas gets traded at the deadline for hitters, promoting Iwakuma to the number two role, which he holds down adequately.
Worst-case scenario: Iwakuma continues to struggle. The Mariners place him on the DL with "shoulder stiffness" in the hopes that he just needs a little more time to get acclimated to the MLB. Iwakuma comes back in June and doesn't improve. He makes a few spot starts for the rest of the year, and Jack Z questions why he even signed Iwakuma in the first place.
More Likely: Worst-case scenario
The Middle Relievers: You're relievers, just untrustworthy ones
5. George Sherrill: Suck it Erik Bedard! We have Sherrill back, so now we're only four players away from reversing the worst trade in Seattle sports history. Adam Jones, anyone? Since Sherrill actually pitched in Japan, I can stop using spring stats (thank God!). He has the flattest hat on the team and consequently had the flattest outing of any pitcher on the team against the A's. Three batters, three hits, one big fly. That sucks. He also has been addled by shoulder problems since he left us in the-trade-that-must-not-be-named (Harry Potter, anyone?) in 2008. Sherrill brings a veteran presence, but also a lot of injury question.
Best-case Scenario: Shoulder problems behind him, Sherrill shakes off his rocky first appearance and returns to 2009 all-star form. He quickly sweeps up the wide-open eighth inning role and performs at a high level night in and night out, clearing the path to Brandon League from the seventh inning. Sherrill gets looks for the all-star game and provides a rock-solid foundation as well as a veteran clubhouse presence.
Worst-case Scenario: Sherrill continues to struggle and the Mariners put him on the DL with shoulder problems, which all of a sudden look a lot serious than previously thought. Still injured, Sherrill's return to the M's is cut short when Jack Z releases him in mid-June and brings back Jamey Wright in his place.
More Likely: Tough one, but based on appearance one and injury problems, I'll go with Worst-case Scenario.
4. Steve Delabar: The Mariners' substitute teacher looked pretty solid in his Japan appearance, getting the Mariners out of the disastrous seventh inning in game two and nearly shutting it down in the eighth before getting jacked by Josh Reddick and his douche beard. Delabar first appeared with the M's at the major league level in 2011, when he posted a 1-1 record with a 2.57 ERA in seven innings over six appearances.
Best-case Scenario: Delabar pitches consistently out of the 'pen, giving the Mariners another great option to set up Brandon League. Delabar stays with the big club all season, logging a ton of innings in the seventh and eighth. He platoons with Tom Wilhelmsen as the set-up man and proves his merit at the major-league level.
Worst-case Scenario: He keeps getting lit up in the seventh and eighth innings and the Mariners start to lose games due to his struggles. The M's designate him for assignment in June, and Delabar disappears until the rosters expand in September. He remains impossible to figure out, and Jack Z doesn't bring him back in 2013.
More Likely: Another tough one since we don't know a whole lot about him. I'll go with Best-case by a nose. He'll probably just be average though.
Set-up men: You're solid relievers, so pitch like it
3. Shawn Kelley: More injury questions here. Kelley missed most of 2010 and 2011 after a decent 2009 with Tommy John Surgery, the second of his career. Yikes. TWO Tommy John's? That's brutal. Yet with such an inexperienced bullpen, Kelley is somewhat of an elder statesmen along with Sherrill. He got taken yard by Yoenis Cespedes and took the loss in Japan game two, but he could have finished the inning and kept it close if Wedge had left him in. Kelley will need to provide consistency and stay healthy for the M's pen to be successful.
Best-case Scenario: Kelley quickly locks up the set-up role due to lack of competition and shows the flair and consistency he put forth before his surgery. He flirts with the all-star game and leads a rock-solid Mariners bullpen in 2012.
Worst-case Scenario: Kelley's season is brief. He struggles through April and May before he realizes his elbow just won't support his pitching style. He blows it out again, and instead of enduring a third Tommy John, he retires in his prime, another casualty to the modern pitching style.
More Likely: Best-case Scenario
2. Tom Wilhelmsen: No pressure, but the success of the M's bullpen this season most rides on the Bartender's continued improvement. He was lights out in two innings of work against the A's in Japan game one, and will command the eighth inning role until he gives it up. Six up, six down for a win in relief. That's music to every Mariner fan's ears. If Wilhelmsen keeps it up, he could be an all-star.
Best-case Scenario: Wilhelmsen is the set-up man Jack Z dreamed him up to be when he signed him in 2010. He dominates in the eighth inning and makes the all-star game, becoming known as a poor man's Johnny Venters, minus the injuries. He makes Brandon League expendable, and becomes the closer of the future by 2013.
Worst-case Scenario: The Bartender's work in Japan proves to be a fluke. He struggles while Kelley and Sherrill succeed, and he head back to Tacoma in May. He comes back up in September and occasionally throughout the season, but shows he's still a year away.
More Likely: I like Wilhelmsen. Best-case would be awesome. I'm going with that.
The Closer: Hey now, you're an all-star, get your game on, go play
1. Brandon League: I don't exactly know how to attack this one, since I think the best-case scenario would be for League to be in a different uniform by August. He was an all-star in 2011, but during the 17-game losing streak following the break, he didn't see much action, because the game needs to be close for him to pitch. I think Brandon League will pitch well this season, but I also think the Mariners need to trade him when he does, because he is not a part of the ultimate success plan. A closer is the final piece of the rebuilding puzzle, and League could bring back top prospects if he pitches well in 2012.
Best-case Scenario: League gets noticed on a national level for his lights out closing and ability to keep a struggling franchise afloat by winning one-run games. His splitter continues to miss bats, and he becomes a two-time all-star. Fading come July, the Mariner trad ether top expendable asset in League for a solid hitting prospect from a contender with a crap bullpen like the Red Sox.
Worst-case Scenario: The M's get more of struggling, low-confidence League than they did last year. His week-long funks occur more and more often and last longer and longer. League continues to falter, and loses the closer job to Wilhelmsen in July. With his value down, the M's ship him out for C-level prospects or just let him go at the end of the year.
More Likely: He's too good, so Best-case wins.
This bullpens faces a lot of questions heading into 2012. But one thing that isn't in question is that consistency from these seven will make the difference between 65 and 80 wins this season. Go M's.
As of the Japan series, the Mariners had narrowed their bullpen, projected to be a seven-arm stable, to nine men. This is good for this post, since I like doing guesswork more than projections.
So far in the 2012 regular season (read: Japan games), five of the nine relievers have pitched. Some impressed, guaranteeing a spot on the 25-man roster, and a few disappointed, leaving a cloud of doubt over their heads. Generally though, appearing in one of the two games in Japan meant that Eric Wedge trusted these five relievers, and plans to use them in the future. I'll pick the seven I see making the 25-man squad, and then project the kind of season I expect them to have.
The cuts:
9. Lucas Luetge: I just don't see it from this rule-5 selection. He has had great spring, allowing just two runs in four hits in nearly seven innings of work, but the bullpen is just too crowded for an unproven new guy to step in. The names he's competing with, Sherrill, Delabar, Wilhelmsen, Furbush; all of these guys are known entities within the organization with experience with the M's in 2011. I can't see Luetge taking the spot of one of these guys. He will be released, and go back to the Brewers.
8. Erasmo Ramirez: In two starts this spring, Ramirez has shined, allowing just one run in seven innings. But looking big picture, why start this guy's clock now just to shove him into a rarely used long relief spot? Erasmo is 21 and will turn 22 next month. It's fair to say his best baseball is still ahead of him. So for now, breeding him to start in Tacoma makes more sense than potentially derailing his career by shelving him in the 'pen. If one of the Mariners' starters struggles, Ramirez could replace them in the rotation if he gets more practice with the Rainiers.
The Long Relievers: You're a starter, but you suck too much to start.
7. Charlie Furbush: Many thought that one of the centerpieces of the Doug Fister trade had a chance to echo his role from the end of 2011 and grab the fifth starter spot for the M's this spring. Didn't quite pan out that way, as the additions of Hector Noesi and Kevin Millwood quashed any chance for Furbush to sneak into the rotation. Combine that with the fact that Furbush didn't make a start this spring, and he has long relief written all over him. Which is fine, since the M's need quality innings-eaters out of the bullpen. Furbush probably will consistently appear in the fifth or sixth innings when a Mariner starter struggles and he's needed to chew up some time and minimize damage.
Best-case Scenario: Furbush shines in multiple appearances in April and is upgraded to a consistent seventh or eighth inning role. He holds down that spot for a while, and then when Hector Noesi needs some more time in AAA by June, Furbush moves into the rotation where he records a .500 record with an ERA a tick under 4.00.
Worst-case Scenario: Furbush sucks in three straight performances in April and repeatedly gets tagged for extra-base hits. The Mariners bury him deep in the bullpen, and designate him for assignment in mid-May, admitting that Detroit may have won the Fister deal.
More Likely: Best-case Scenario
6. Hisashi Iwakuma: I'm really disappointed to be writing this. Iwakuma has had a terrible spring. If I had to pick a letdown in Peoria from an M's perspective, I would pick the I-man. To make matters worse, he got rocked in front of his home country in the exhibition against the Hanshin Tigers. This guy won the Japanese Cy Young in 2008, was named all-tournament at the World Baseball Classic in 2009, and now sucks in 2012. TMS. Typical Mariner Shit.
Best-case Scenario: Iwakuma pitches more than Furbush in long relief, and impresses, finally starting to miss some bats. He fixes his weird issues with his mechanics and gets promoted to the rotation in May, replacing Noesi. He then becomes the solid number three starter before Jason Vargas gets traded at the deadline for hitters, promoting Iwakuma to the number two role, which he holds down adequately.
Worst-case scenario: Iwakuma continues to struggle. The Mariners place him on the DL with "shoulder stiffness" in the hopes that he just needs a little more time to get acclimated to the MLB. Iwakuma comes back in June and doesn't improve. He makes a few spot starts for the rest of the year, and Jack Z questions why he even signed Iwakuma in the first place.
More Likely: Worst-case scenario
The Middle Relievers: You're relievers, just untrustworthy ones
5. George Sherrill: Suck it Erik Bedard! We have Sherrill back, so now we're only four players away from reversing the worst trade in Seattle sports history. Adam Jones, anyone? Since Sherrill actually pitched in Japan, I can stop using spring stats (thank God!). He has the flattest hat on the team and consequently had the flattest outing of any pitcher on the team against the A's. Three batters, three hits, one big fly. That sucks. He also has been addled by shoulder problems since he left us in the-trade-that-must-not-be-named (Harry Potter, anyone?) in 2008. Sherrill brings a veteran presence, but also a lot of injury question.
Best-case Scenario: Shoulder problems behind him, Sherrill shakes off his rocky first appearance and returns to 2009 all-star form. He quickly sweeps up the wide-open eighth inning role and performs at a high level night in and night out, clearing the path to Brandon League from the seventh inning. Sherrill gets looks for the all-star game and provides a rock-solid foundation as well as a veteran clubhouse presence.
Worst-case Scenario: Sherrill continues to struggle and the Mariners put him on the DL with shoulder problems, which all of a sudden look a lot serious than previously thought. Still injured, Sherrill's return to the M's is cut short when Jack Z releases him in mid-June and brings back Jamey Wright in his place.
More Likely: Tough one, but based on appearance one and injury problems, I'll go with Worst-case Scenario.
4. Steve Delabar: The Mariners' substitute teacher looked pretty solid in his Japan appearance, getting the Mariners out of the disastrous seventh inning in game two and nearly shutting it down in the eighth before getting jacked by Josh Reddick and his douche beard. Delabar first appeared with the M's at the major league level in 2011, when he posted a 1-1 record with a 2.57 ERA in seven innings over six appearances.
Best-case Scenario: Delabar pitches consistently out of the 'pen, giving the Mariners another great option to set up Brandon League. Delabar stays with the big club all season, logging a ton of innings in the seventh and eighth. He platoons with Tom Wilhelmsen as the set-up man and proves his merit at the major-league level.
Worst-case Scenario: He keeps getting lit up in the seventh and eighth innings and the Mariners start to lose games due to his struggles. The M's designate him for assignment in June, and Delabar disappears until the rosters expand in September. He remains impossible to figure out, and Jack Z doesn't bring him back in 2013.
More Likely: Another tough one since we don't know a whole lot about him. I'll go with Best-case by a nose. He'll probably just be average though.
Set-up men: You're solid relievers, so pitch like it
3. Shawn Kelley: More injury questions here. Kelley missed most of 2010 and 2011 after a decent 2009 with Tommy John Surgery, the second of his career. Yikes. TWO Tommy John's? That's brutal. Yet with such an inexperienced bullpen, Kelley is somewhat of an elder statesmen along with Sherrill. He got taken yard by Yoenis Cespedes and took the loss in Japan game two, but he could have finished the inning and kept it close if Wedge had left him in. Kelley will need to provide consistency and stay healthy for the M's pen to be successful.
Best-case Scenario: Kelley quickly locks up the set-up role due to lack of competition and shows the flair and consistency he put forth before his surgery. He flirts with the all-star game and leads a rock-solid Mariners bullpen in 2012.
Worst-case Scenario: Kelley's season is brief. He struggles through April and May before he realizes his elbow just won't support his pitching style. He blows it out again, and instead of enduring a third Tommy John, he retires in his prime, another casualty to the modern pitching style.
More Likely: Best-case Scenario
2. Tom Wilhelmsen: No pressure, but the success of the M's bullpen this season most rides on the Bartender's continued improvement. He was lights out in two innings of work against the A's in Japan game one, and will command the eighth inning role until he gives it up. Six up, six down for a win in relief. That's music to every Mariner fan's ears. If Wilhelmsen keeps it up, he could be an all-star.
Best-case Scenario: Wilhelmsen is the set-up man Jack Z dreamed him up to be when he signed him in 2010. He dominates in the eighth inning and makes the all-star game, becoming known as a poor man's Johnny Venters, minus the injuries. He makes Brandon League expendable, and becomes the closer of the future by 2013.
Worst-case Scenario: The Bartender's work in Japan proves to be a fluke. He struggles while Kelley and Sherrill succeed, and he head back to Tacoma in May. He comes back up in September and occasionally throughout the season, but shows he's still a year away.
More Likely: I like Wilhelmsen. Best-case would be awesome. I'm going with that.
The Closer: Hey now, you're an all-star, get your game on, go play
1. Brandon League: I don't exactly know how to attack this one, since I think the best-case scenario would be for League to be in a different uniform by August. He was an all-star in 2011, but during the 17-game losing streak following the break, he didn't see much action, because the game needs to be close for him to pitch. I think Brandon League will pitch well this season, but I also think the Mariners need to trade him when he does, because he is not a part of the ultimate success plan. A closer is the final piece of the rebuilding puzzle, and League could bring back top prospects if he pitches well in 2012.
Best-case Scenario: League gets noticed on a national level for his lights out closing and ability to keep a struggling franchise afloat by winning one-run games. His splitter continues to miss bats, and he becomes a two-time all-star. Fading come July, the Mariner trad ether top expendable asset in League for a solid hitting prospect from a contender with a crap bullpen like the Red Sox.
Worst-case Scenario: The M's get more of struggling, low-confidence League than they did last year. His week-long funks occur more and more often and last longer and longer. League continues to falter, and loses the closer job to Wilhelmsen in July. With his value down, the M's ship him out for C-level prospects or just let him go at the end of the year.
More Likely: He's too good, so Best-case wins.
This bullpens faces a lot of questions heading into 2012. But one thing that isn't in question is that consistency from these seven will make the difference between 65 and 80 wins this season. Go M's.
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