Thank God it's Oakland Part 1

By Patrick

The future

The Mariners evidently have no ability to beat the Padres without Felix being absolutely on his game. On the plus side, their pitchers can hit. Which is good, since the M's play in the National League. What? They don't? Well, fuck. Whatever. They still get to play Oakland, who they have smashed this season. 

The A's essentially consist of a below-average, patchwork rotation with a few decent young hitters and a good bullpen. The Mariners consist of a bunch of wildcards, and I'm beginning to think the opponent doesn't matter much. The A's in Safeco should be about as cushy as it gets for the Mariners though, and they desperately need to get back on track to salvage 2012.

June 25: Erasmo Ramirez (0-1, 5.40) vs. Tommy Milone (7-5, 4.13)

On one hand, Erasmo Ramirez has not impressed much in his first two starts or in his time in the bullpen. On the other hand, he presents a great option for the future rotation. I can do a similar comparison with Tommy Milone. On one hand, he's a promising young pitcher who has provided a bright spot in a tough season as far as Oakland starting pitching is concerned. On the other hand, he lost to the M's in his only start against them in 2012, and his 7.42 road ERA is baseball's third worst. Couple that with a .317 BAA on the road, and Erasmo may be well on his way to his first career win.

Players to Watch:

Franklin Gutierrez: It's so nice to finally be able to type this name again in a preview. Guti is an incredible fielder. So if he can hit .270, we'll be good. So far, he's hitting .290. Schwing! It's a small sample size, but Guti has succeeded so far, and the M's might have the number two hitter they've been actively looking for.

Brandon Inge: Inge with anyone else besides Detroit is weird. The Tigers cut him though, and so Billy Beane went in and swooped him up. How's he been doing? Not too great. .221/7/35 isn't great, but it's Inge numbers. He's a pretty ham sandwich kind of player. Perfect for Erasmo or Blake Beavan.

Prediction:

M's 5, A's 4: Yes, the Mariners haven't pitched well at all lately, but for the love of God, it's the A's! They suck, and they suck against the M's. The Mariners have no excuse for losing this one in front of the home fans. I have them winning a tight one. Go M's.

The Three Amigos: Summer School Edition

By Anthony

I don’t like to beat around the bush often. I find it wasteful and inefficient. I am also lazy so I find anything that is not necessary to the matter is bad because it requires unnecessary effort. Our starting pitching is pretty terrible right now. Everyone except for Felix is doing badly. And bad is a nice way to put it. This is the summer school edition because instead of grades, I will be assigning the amigos to a certain time they must spend in summer school to make up for their horrific grades this time around. Its like they got senioritis (A fully recognized disease where second-semester seniors in high school slack off heavily before they graduate to college), but it wasn’t their freshman year in college and not senior year in high school. To remedial classes!

Hector “I get confused between 0-2 and 2-0 counts” Noesi

When Patrick asked me how bad of a pitchers park Chase Field was, I had to look it up on ESPN. It didn’t stand out to me as a Coors Field (Rockies) or U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox). Man, I was wrong. Every game against the D-Backs was high scoring, which is nice, seeing as we have an anemic offense, but it was bad since we lost 2 of 3. Noesi did not do a very good job as a pitcher. He went 6 innings, gave up 5 earned (6 total), walked 2 and had 5 K’s. One of the more surprising stats was that he gave up 0 home runs. I guess that’s something positive? I don’t really know. He once again struggled in 0-2 counts. I honestly would like to see him just throw an 0-2 pitch behind the batter, just for fun. It is not like they will hit it. He threw a bunch of four seam fastballs this time, which is different than normal. He usually uses his two-seamer more. He also threw more curves than usual. His command wasn’t great, like usual. There’s not much else to say for Noesi. He got hit around, didn’t look incredible and got sent to summer school. In the words of Walter White from Breaking Bad, “Apply Your self!” Hector is in summer school for only a month, don’t worry, that’s relatively good for the other members of the rotation.

Erasmo “I am just as boring as a Ham Sandwich” Ramirez

I swear, the entire group of Amigos got together and decided the best way to make me unhappy looking at their stats. Noesi decided to suck in general and now Erasmo showed some awesome peripheral stats but the game is not decided on FIP and K/9. Stupid Bud Selig. Erasmo went 4 innings (ARRGRGGHGHGH), gave up 4 (5 earned), had 5 K’s and 1 walk. Let me tell you this, Erasmo Ramirez striking out dudes is awesome. With his quality of stuff, he should be like Blake Beavan. His career high K/9 in the minors was 7.44 when he also walked 2.76 per 9. 5 K’s in 4 innings is a K/9 of 11.25, if you don’t know that off the top of your head like me. But yeah, Erasmo was not super impressive. Gave up 2 bombs. Meh. I am losing motivation to talk about the Amigos since they were so terrible. And I haven’t even gotten to Kevin Millwood yet. AARRRRRGGGHGHGHGHGHGHGHGHG!!!!! Erasmo gets a month and a half in Summer School. He needs to work on his “Don’t give up dingers essay.” I hear his thesis is really interesting.

Kevin “I regret sending in the Amigos early last time since I have to talk about you twice now” Millwood

For those of you how have their critical thinking caps on, you will notice I made up a nickname for Kevin. Its not his real nickname, sanctioned by the blog, but sometimes I go maverick. Patrick is used to it by now. This time, in what Kevin Millwood has done recently to piss off Anthony, we have giving up two hits and three RBI’s to Clayton Richard. Here is why that makes me mad. Clayton Richard is a pitcher. Clayton Richard is a pitcher for the Padres. And I HATE losing to the Padres. Not because we have some stupid rivalry with them like the MLB wishes, but because they suck more than us. So cool Kevin, you have furthered my dislike of you by letting the other teams pitcher beat you. In the game against the Giants, Millwood went 5 innings, gave up 3 earned (4 runs total), had one walk and 3 K’s. He also gave up 9 hits and did not do a good job. In his game against the hated Padres, he went 5 innings (again), gave up 5 earned (8 total), had 3 walks and 3 K’s. Also bad. Yeah, Kyle Seager had a rough day in the hot corner and Millwood probably shouldn’t have given up 8 runs. But the pitcher went 2-2 off of him. GARRRRRGHGHGHGHGH. Something to note about Millwood though, is his doesn’t give up many home runs. He has only given up 3 all year. See, I am making progress in my dislike of him. He is in summer school for 2.5 months, trying to understand how a pitcher got 3 RBI’s off of him. 

The Word

Imperfect

For those of you who missed the big news, I am very sorry. I’ll do my best to make this short so the pain doesn’t get to deep. But Lucas Luetge has now given up an earned run(s) and no longer has an ERA of 0.00. Lets just remember how awesome it was to see his streak blossom like a rare orchid and show its beauty to the world. I am tearing up right now so I’ll make it quick. Lucas, you are still my favorite and have an ERA of 0.00 in my heart. (In retrospect this is really weird. Sorry for scaring any readers, I am not as obsessed with Lucas Luetge as this paragraph would make me seem. Patrick may mock me for this, I accept that punishment).

Tip of My Cap

Franklin Gutierrez and Casper Wells

Usually, this accolade only goes to one person. But these two are both doing about the same thing so I will split this award, as controversial as it may seem. I will first award Franklin because he has been more noticeable in the past 48 hours for me. He has now come back form injury and has had a chance to get settled. He was hitting .308 after a nice 4-5 performance the other day. What I like better is his slugging percentage, which is .577. Keep in mind that he has only played a few games so all those numbers will fluctuate quite a bit. But yay for Franklin. Casper is doing much of the same and has earned himself a spot in the outfield. He is hitting .296 with an OPS above .800. That is awesome, but we have Saunders, Guti and Ichiro blocking him in the outfield. If you’re like an ex-teacher of mine, Brian Elsner, you trade Ichiro. If you’re like me, you let Ichiro play until the end of the year or try and then end the relationship. 

Wag of my Finger

The pitching staff except for Felix

This time through the rotation, we did terrible. I detailed the struggles of ¾ of the failures above, but now Jason Vargas gets in on the action. And wow did he suck. Vargas is probably our only attractive trade piece. And when you give up 10 runs in 4 innings and 5 home runs. That is not good. He is reverting back to his old Jekyll and Hyde self. That is not good. Jason! Patrick got your autograph on a napkin once. Just like I got a forged Dan Wilson autograph once. Shape up!  

Happy Felix Day

By Patrick

Happy Felix Day

I really don't think a preview will do justice to the absolutely terrible pitching the M's have put forth lately, so all I'm doing tonight is posting about Felix briefly. He needs this win tonight. He has no business getting hit around by the Padres like he did last time he faced them. I expect him to go eight innings, allowing just two runs on five hits. The Mariners will win 8-2. Go M's.

Sucks to Suck Part 1

By Patrick

The Mariners suck. The Padres suck. So tonight, it sucks to suck in San Diego. Except the weather in Seattle is just complete shit and San Diego likely has tons of sun. I hate my life. Anyhow, the M's can't afford to lose games in this series. They inevitably will probably lose one, but they shouldn't if they want to gain respect. 

Petco Park is possibly the only park that stymies offense more effectively than Safeco. So this series will test the Mariner offense yet again. Also, I hate the Mariners-Padres series for that reason. Nobody ever scores, and since Adrian Gonzalez left San Diego, there are no elite hitters on either team. Maybe the Mariner pitching will improve as a result of the crappy Padres offense.

June 22: Kevin Millwood (3-5, 3.69) vs. Clayton Richard (4-7, 3.97)

Richard healed up against the Mariners last time he opposed them, and will look to continue his resurgence tonight. Millwood would like to find some consistency by defeating a crappy offense tonight. Hmmm. Not much to say here. Richard is left-handed, which doesn't traditionally favor the Mariners' lefty heavy lineup. Millwood has pitched against every team in every park, so maybe he can use his experience to succeed tonight. The Mariners need a good start, that's for sure. Maybe Millwood is the man to give them that tonight.

Players to watch

Miguel Olivo: I'm pissed the Mariners aren't playing Jesus Montero tonight. So all of us will inevitably have to watch Olivo. He's right handed though, so he'll probably hold a small advantage over Richard. I have a good feeling about him tonight. He has to earn his PT on the road in interleague play, and I bet he does that. If not, Montero will probably pinch hit anyway.

Carlos Quentin: No explanation needed here. If you happened not to catch my preview from the last series, I told you not to watch anybody else besides Quentin. I do not change my stance. Change the channel when the M's pitch.

Prediction:

M's 5, Padres 2: Vengeance is sweet. When you're avenging a sweep to the Padres, it's kind of expected. The M's need a sweep this weekend. This is the place to start. A homer by Olivo and another by Justin Smoak should do the trick. Go M's.

The Curious Case of Felix Hernandez

By Anthony

Wooooo!

Felix Hernandez is awesome. I will come out and say that right now. He is the rock of the franchise and main reason why the Mariners are in any sense relevant. He has had to put up with sub par offenses for a while and never complained. Kudos to you Felix. He has had a Wins-Above-Replacement of above 5.5 for the past three years. That means he has won over 5.5 more games for the team than whoever would have replaced him. For some context, C.C. Sabathia has had 2 seasons above 5.5 WAR in the past three. But, for some reason, Felix has only had a WAR of 1.7 this year and has struggled. He has had some starts where he looked like an average pitcher, not a guy nicknamed the King. I will look into the numbers and see what exactly is wrong with the King. Just a heads up, there will be a bunch of numbers, since numbers never lie, unlike the eye test.

I will be drawing all my data from the Pitch f/x system and data stored on texasleaguers.com. It is a very interesting site for a numbers nerd like myself. The two sample sizes I will be using are Felix in the last three years and Felix this year. This is what I found.

Pre-2012 Felix

Pitch	%Thrown	% Strikes	Velocity	Swing %	Whiff %
4 Seam Fastball	35.4	63.7	93.9	45.8	7
2 Seam Fastball	1.3	58.6	93.6	46.4	10
Sinker	24.8	66.7	93.3	48	6.5
Changeup	14.2	67.4	89.2	58.8	17.9
Curveball	15.1	59.4	82.4	33.5	11.4
Slider	8.9	65.1	86.4	46.4	16.2

2012 Felix

Pitch	%Thrown	% Strikes	Velocity	Swing %	Whiff %
4 Seam Fastball	16.5	60.9	91.7	39.6	4.5
2 Seam Fastball	8.8	63	91.8	48.1	5.6
Sinker	12.7	68.6	91.8	43.6	3.2
Changeup	32.7	63.3	89.1	50.0	14.5
Curveball	14.9	59.9	81.4	40.7	9.3
Slider	14.1	60.7	86	43.9	11.6

For those who aren’t very used to comparing sets of data, I will now break down what I see from these two tables. There are two key issues that I see as the root of Felix’s problems and struggles.

First of all is his velocity. Everyone knows that Felix is not throwing as hard as he usually does. What I find curious about this certain issue is that it is not a problem with his off-speed pitches. Only his fastball(s) and sinker (I am fairly sure that there is some cross-over between his sinker and 2-seam fastball but Pitch f/x has its issues that we can’t really correct) are losing velocity. This does not signal an arm issue or aging to me. A drop in velocity would show across the board if that was the problem. Recently, Felix has mentioned the issue and the M’s have come out and said its not a big deal. Really? I would claim it is a big deal, or at least something that could attribute to his struggles. Know who else has had velocity issues this year? Tim Lincecum. And we just beat the former Cy Young winner. Felix has finally watched tape of himself and saw that he was not pushing off with his back leg and wasn’t being as aggressive with his upper body. This is absolutely an awesome revelation from Felix. All of those things hurt velocity and when he returned from a back injury, that was an annoying setback, he had made changes. 

Most Recent Felix (In two starts)

2012 Felix

Pitch	%Thrown	% Strikes	Velocity	Swing %	Whiff %
4 Seam Fastball	25	64.7	92.2	39.6	4.5
2 Seam Fastball	13.7	67.9	92.9	48.1	5.6
Sinker	15.2	80.6	92.3	43.6	3.2
Changeup	22.1	53.3	89.4	50.0	14.5
Curveball	11.7	82.6	82.5	40.7	9.3
Slider	12.7	53.8	86.5	43.9	11.6

Notice how his velocity has jumped up a few ticks. That is very good. I don’t care how much a pitch moves, it has to make a batter scared. Meaning that they have to worry about it being thrown past them. Not because that happens often, but a good fastball can turn an average off-speed pitch into a very good weapon. If a batter is worried about getting beat by a fastball, they will be more willing to swing at an off-speed pitch. And guess what Felix’s best pitch is? His changeup. That thing is NASTY! But if he throws it at the same speed as his fastball, a batter won’t be too worried. Notice how the whiff percentage has dropped with his changeup this year. That is not because it has lost movement or anything, but because hitters aren’t too worried about Felix throwing 96 past them. They know they can sit on his now mediocre fastball and hit it. He has made steps here, but he needs to get his velocity up on his fastball. 

The second thing, a universal fact in pitching, is that Felix must throw strikes. I don’t care if a pitcher has the stuff of Justin Verlander or is a teenager in a summer league game who hasn’t pitched in two years. The way to get batters out is to throw strikes. Not every batter is Vlad Guerrero or Miguel Olivo. Felix needs to get ahead of hitters and he absolutely can. One of his best characteristics is that he has command of all his pitches. I have watched him throw 3-1 curves for strikes and 1-2 fastballs right at the catcher’s glove. He has the ability to consistently hit his spots. If you ignore the two-seamer/ sinker similarity that Pitch f/x can’t figure out, almost all of his strike percentages have dropped. His curve percentage has increased half a percentage. Not significant. But his command is clearly lacking. Something that backs this point up is that in the past three years, his BB/9 has been about 2.5. Now it is at 2.85. Not a super large jump, but he has also hit 7 people so far this year. He averaged 7.66 batters hit in the past three years. That is bad. 

After he came back from injury, his strike percentages have jumped up dramatically. Mind, it is only two starts vs. 3 years of starts. But, it is a start. Especially with his fastball, he must be able to command his fastball and get ahead of batters when he needs to. His fastball is not his best pitch and is probably top 3, maybe. But it is still the pitch that is easiest to command and I guarantee you he has been throwing it for the longest. Everything with a pitcher starts with a fastball, it may not be good, but it has to be something that can be relied on to get strikes, and to set up other off-speed pitches. If Felix can get his fastball to go where he wants, he should be able to find some success.

So there you are. Felix has had troubles this year. He has a home run problem. He has had some bad innings that he can’t get out of. He hasn’t been the dominant, lights-out starter that we expect him to be. All that comes down to is two simple issues, velocity and command. Every pitcher needs them. Felix included. So watch for those two factors in his next start. And Go M’s.

Rattling the Snakes Part 2 (in pictures)

By Patrick

Erasmo Ramirez makes his second start of the season for the Mariners.

Daniel Hudson (3-1, 5.67)  goes for Arizona

Ichiro returns from his day off with a chance to right the ship

Aaron Hill hit for the cycle yesterday

Mariners will win 7-2. Go M's.

Rattling the Snakes, Part 1

By Patrick

Oh, you said Wade Miley...Awkward

It's amazing with a team as streaky as the Mariners that after a potentially season damning six game losing streak, they can snap back just like that and take a series from a solid Giants team. They did that though, and now head off to play a struggling Arizona side for a chance to continue ripping it up with the bats on the road. 

Justin Smoak may have kicked it in gear just at the right time. He had a pretty rough home stand, and his average fell around ten points. But he delivered a big confidence walk-off single in the ninth on Sunday, and will look to ride that momentum into a hitters' park in Arizona. If he can deliver some big offense, the Mariners can grab some important wins.

Under the radar from this weekend went the promotion of Oliver Perez from AAA for Steve Delabar. Perez used to be a stud starter, but flopped after Mets took a gamble on him with a big contract. he struggled in the spring, and consequently didn't receive an initial roster spot. He might see time in this series. More likely, he'll become the new Hisashi Iwakuma. On to the matchup.

June 18: Hector Noesi (2-7, 5.54) vs. Wade Miley "Cyrus" (7-3, 2.39)

The Mariners have some solid momentum, and Noesi fared really well last time out against the Padres (even though he got Safeco'd by getting shit for run support). However, Miley will provide a stiff challenge for the M's. He's the prototypical Mariner killer, and the M's should be counting their lucky stars that he's in the National League. He's a young lefty with serious strikeout potential who relies on his fastball in the low nineties to set up his off-speed stuff. He hasn't allowed more than four runs in any start in 2012, so he's a solid number two starter type in his first full season in the bigs. He's a former first round draft pick out of Southeastern Louisiana, so you know he was highly touted. Noesi on the other hand has an ERA around 8.00 on the road this year. Yikes. Momentum seems to be the only factor favoring the M's tonight.

Players to Watch:

Miguel Montero: The other Montero. OK, maybe Jesus Montero is the other one for now. That's because Montero is not a catcher to look past. He's regarded as one of the top five hitting catchers in the league, and Arizona proved they share that opinion by locking him up with a big extension earlier this year. So far in 2012, his .253/6/32 doesn't necessarily put fear in the hearts of pitchers, but it does challenge the mentality that the catcher should be an easy out.

Michael Saunders: Saunders has fallen into a deadlock for the M's batting lead among qualifiers, after Montero's recent success has vaulted him up to .270, where the Condor currently lurks. Saunders will lead off for the second time in his big league career today, and that role will come with a lot of responsibility. Can he continue his recent road success and keep hitting lefties better than righties (weird, since he's a lefty himself)? The M's will have to hope so.

Prediction:

Diamondbacks 6, M's 3: I really liked the Mariners chances going back on the road with momentum and confidence. Then I read about Miley. It just looks like another long day ahead for Mariner hitters. Plus throwing Noesi into a big time hitters' park with that lethal 8.00 ERA won't help the Seattle cause. I'm just not seeing it for the M's tonight. They'll fall behind early, and a late rally will come up short. Go M's.