Five Lessons From The Trade Deadline

By Patrick

Eric Thames, the Mariners' most notable acquisition

Alas, the July 31st MLB non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone. While the Mariners didn't make any moves right before 1:00 PM PST, they made three significant trades in the week before the deadline. The first was the highly publicized Ichiro deal, which sent the former Mariner superstar to the New York Yankees for AAA RHP DJ Mitchell and AAA RHP Danny Farquhar. The other two trades went down last night after the Blue Jays game. The M's sent Steve Delabar to Toronto in exchange for OF Eric Thames in yet another clubhouse-switching deal (The Jays are in town now, so Thames just had to switch jerseys). The final trade of the week sent Brandon League to the Dodgers in exchange for AA RHR Logan Bawcom and High-A center fielder Leon Landry.

So in summary, not a whole lot of guarantees, but the M's did clear out a lot of players that weren't helping this season and weren't going to be a part of the future of the organization. My initial thoughts on all three were positive, since combined Ichiro, League, and especially Delabar helped us very little, and yet we got trade value for them. None of the prospects the M's got in return scream huge value, but they're all potentially pieces, and Eric Thames is a major league baseball player, albeit a so far below-average one. Here are the five things I learned from the moves the Mariners made over the last week.

1. There's a plan in place

If you had told me ten days ago, that the Mariners would trade Ichiro to the Yankees, I would have either completely disregarded you or punched you in the face, depending on how negative I was feeling about Ichiro at the time and depending on how mad at you I was. I was under the impression that the organization was too chicken to move Ichiro, or even dare to not re-sign him in the offseason. But whether they were going to re-sign him or not, he asked to be traded, and the organization honored his request. For me, that said that Jack Z has a plan, and the organization allowed him to execute it. Unless he's not the GM we think he is, there's no way Ichiro was in his plans past 2012. Jack has a plan, and he's sticking to it.

The same goes for the Brandon League and Steve Delabar moves. The Mariners had invested in League to be their closer, and he showed that he couldn't do it effectively enough. So they shipped him out for potentially helpful prospects. Steve Delabar wouldn't stop giving up big home runs and sucking in general, so Jack Z cut him lose and grabbed a major league outfielder. There's a plan, and Jack is executing it without ownership interfering.

2. That being said, Jack Z won't just make trades for the sake of acquiring more pieces

Imagine that you also told me that the Mariners would trade three players in the week leading up to this year's deadline and then asked me to guess which ones got moved. I would have said Jason Vargas, Brandon League, and Kevin Millwood. I would have been one for three. Jason Vargas probably had the most trade value of any truly available Mariner, but in the end it didn't make sense to let him go. He had too much value to the current and future (contract extension?) team, and the rotation would have been screwed without him. I'm not sure why Millwood didn't go somewhere, but clearly the package wasn't good enough for him. That's fine. Jack Z needs to make trades to help the team, not just trades for the sake of trades. I think he made the right moves, and making more than three moves might have shown a little too much desperation.

3. The Mariners are still trying to get younger


Ichiro shipped out for a pair of 25-year olds, Steve Delabar becomes a 25-year old outfielder, and Brandon League becomes two players who were in A-ball this season. Essentially, even more youth. Throw in that the corresponding moves brought Trayvon Robinson, Steven Pryor, and Carter Capps up to the MLB squad, and the focus is clear: youth is being served. For the remainder of 2012, that's OK. The Mariners are out of the playoff hunt and should use the remaining two months of the season to help bring along the kids. But by next season, they need some solid veterans in place that can pick up the slack when the young guys falter.

4. Some Mariners "veterans" may be up for contract extensions soon


Jack didn't trade Jason Vargas, even though he was linked to like seven different teams this week and could have brought back some value. He didn't trade Brendan Ryan, whose bat has been coming around lately and should certainly win an AL Gold Glove for his defense. Do the M's finally have some veteran players who can help the team win? It seems like the organization feels Ryan and Vargas can do just that. Sure, the M's have James Paxton, Danny Hultzen, and Taijuan Walker all waiting to join the rotation next season, and they have Nick Franklin and Brad Miller showing huge promise at shortstop. But maybe Jack had to look beyond the "potential" of these guys in the minors and focus on what he has in Vargas and Ryan. He has a solid and consistent number three starter in Vargas who keeps his ERA in the mid-threes and has the team lead in wins, and not because of insane run support. He also has the best defensive player in all of baseball at shortstop, who is totally acceptable if he hits .240 out of the nine hole. Instead of stressing through more rookie development, Jack may decide to commit to players who don't need to develop, since they are already known entities.

5. Felix is ours, and you can't have him


Another sub-.500 trade deadline gone, yet Felix Hernandez remains a Mariner. The Diamondbacks were apparently working on a huge blockbuster trade for  a starting pitcher this morning, but that didn't pan out. Could it have been Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer for Felix? Maybe. But who cares? Felix is a Mariner, and all of that speculation and "the Mariners need to trade him" shit is just that, shit. Because Felix Hernandez is now the only icon this team has. He's the best player, the most-liked player, the most-watched player, and the most exciting player. And he's ours. And you can't have him. Great job Jack Z. Go M's.

The New Blake Beavan: Black Forest Ham

By Anthony

I am assuming everyone has a different kind of taste buds and I will not claim to be an expert in different kinds of ham, but a quick Google search says that black forest ham is the best. I am not saying that Blake Beavan is the best, and is nowhere near close to being the best. But after being recalled from Tacoma on July 17^th, Beavan has put up these numbers- 20.2 innings, 2.03 ERA, 14 K’s and one walk. Yeah, the same Blake “The Ham Sandwich” Beavan is all of a sudden somewhat interesting. Or at least he is not as boring as he was. Honestly, even a ham sandwich would get more interesting over time, just because of the different kinds of mold that would grow but Blake is more interesting than weird colored molds. I’ll take you through what Blake is doing differently since going down I-5. 

These are Blake’s basic numbers before he went down: 56.1 innings, 6.55 ERA, 30 K’s, 11 walks, 12 HR’s. Those are bad, like Hector Noesi bad. However, something that I care about more, and will tell us more is what happened with each of his pitches individually. He pitches to contact and used the huge outfield in Safeco to his advantage with fly balls. Pitch-wise, this is what he did.

Pitch	Strike %	Whiff %	Velocity
Fastball	69	6	91
Curveball	55	8	75
Slider	65	10	80
Changeup	49	4	82

Want to know why Blake Beavan is not interesting? Look at those whiff percentages. All of those are under league average. He doesn’t strike out a bunch of guys and doesn’t miss a bunch of bats. That limits his ceiling immensely. So these numbers are what he has been doing lately.

Pitch	Strike %	Whiff %	Velocity
Fastball	72.5	8	91.5
Curveball	68	5	74.3
Slider	56	12	80.6
Changeup	28.6	0	80.9

Hmmmm…. So that isn’t really helpful. Those numbers are very similar and don’t really tell us too much. I then decided to look at where he is releasing the ball.

This is a look at Blake’s release point. The top was at the start of the year; the bottom is what he has been doing recently.

This spread is definitely amplified by the sheer number of pitches he threw before he was sent down but the difference is still noticeable. He is releasing his ball closer to the plate as well as lower than before. If you look closely you can see that his curveball is the only thing that is consistently released above six feet from the ground. Since he is releasing lower to the ground, it is giving his breaking pitches some new movement that is making them better.

At the start of the year, Blake’s slider was dropping about 0.8 inches and moving away from right handed hitters 4.45 inches more than if it was thrown without spin. This is more of a sweeping slider that is clearly different than his curveball, which broke down 5.6 inches and away from righties 6.6 inches. Now, Blake’s slider has more drop to it and doesn’t break away as much. It now drops 2.5 inches and 3.69 inches horizontally. His curve drops 5 inches and 6.3 inches horizontally. His new slider is missing more bats, albeit by a small margin. He is striking out more batters than before and this new movement on his slider is one of the reasons why. 

I will say that his three starts have come against the Royals twice and once against the Rays. Neither are very potent offenses, even though Beavan gave up five runs to the Royals one time around. Still, he has won three games in his three starts back and has been generating more groundballs and strikeouts than before. His new release point is a large part of that and while it may not be enough to let him hang around next year, Beavan should improve from his earlier numbers. 

Wow, I never really thought I would talk about Blake Beavan for that long. I don’t think anyone ever plans on talking about Blake Beavan for this long. To reward those of you who have dedicated this much time and effort to read about Blake Beavan, I will reveal something new about Jason Vargas. Guess what!! Apparently the Red Sox have mild interest in him. That’s so much more than you knew before! Aren’t you so glad you read this far? I totally am so glad I wrote this much. Go Mariners, and go Black Forest Ham.

Bruce Chen, Mariner Killer

By Patrick

This picture seemed appropriate

How awesome is it that we're still playing the Royals? It's easy money for a dominant team like the Mariners. Who's pitching today? Probably another dominating win, let me just look…OH MY GOD NOOOOOOO! NOT BRUCE CHEN! ANYONE BUT BRUCE CHEN! 

I'm sorry. I got a little carried away there. That is my natural reaction to Bruce Chen pitching against the Mariners though. He's really, really good against us. It just scares me. But most of my reactions to Mariner-related stuff is instinctive, and not necessarily based in fact. So I'm going to take this time to see whether my immense fear of Bruce Chen is factual, or just based on some isolated memories. Disclaimer: I'm writing this on the fly, and don't know whether I'll be right or not.

A few things that jump out to me right away on his Baseball Reference page. First, he's represented by Scott Boras. How rich is Scott Boras? He represents all of the best baseball players and draft picks every year, and still has time for Bruce Chen. Secondly, I didn't realize Chen has been in the majors for 15 years. That's absurd to me. I don't think I'd ever heard of him until about three years ago. I may have guessed seven years pro at most. I would have been way wrong. 

For reference to when we get to the Mariners part, Bruce Chen has career numbers of 67-66 with a 4.61 ERA. Not terrible. Not anything special though. That's about how I feel about Bruce Chen not against the Mariners. 

OK, here come the stats against the Mariners. Bruce Chen has appeared against the Seattle Mariners 12 times in his major league career. Eight of those 12 appearances were starts. In those games, he holds a 4-0 record with a 3.10 ERA in 58.0 innings pitched. He has 37 strikeouts in those 58 innings. 

Alright, so what did those basic stats say? The most important part of that last paragraph for me is the record. Bruce Chen has simply never lost to the Seattle Mariners. So my perception of him as a Mariner killer looks pretty good there. His ERA against the Mariners is also significantly better than his career ERA. A whole 150 points better. So just looking at the common numbers, Bruce Chen does pitch better against the Mariners than he theoretically should. 

Other interesting stats that help my point. Bruce Chen has 4 career complete games. In 15 years. He doesn't throw then all too often. He has one of those against the Mariners. He has a pretty low career K/BB ratio, since he's not a huge strikeout guy and walks about a league average amount of hitters. He has a 3.36 K/BB against the Mariners, which is his fourth highest number against any team. He also has a 1.15 WHIP against the M's in his career, which is pretty damn good. That WHIP is his sixth best against any team. 

Here's a stupid meaningless fact that I could somehow spin to help my point: Bruce Chen has two career saves. One is against the Mariners. Boom. He dominates us. 

Bottom line about Bruce Chen, he is a bonafide Mariner killer. Bruce Chen really isn't a very good pitcher. He's league average. But against the Mariners, he's a stud, significantly better than against an average opponent. So I'm going to continue to freak out, and will do so in the near future anytime I see KC-Chen on the probables list. Go M's, beat Chen. 

A Tribute to Jason Vargas

By Patrick

Jason Vargas said five words to me. "Sure thing," and "No prob buddy." Strangely, that was enough to make him my favorite Mariner. When I had a chance run in with him and his family at the Interbay Red Mill, I didn't know whether to ask for his autograph or not. It's not like Jason Vargas is the most recognizable guy. He looks pretty regular in person. He's like six feet tall maybe, and looks like a pretty regular Italian-American guy nearing thirty. It's hard to say whether a guy like Jason tries to blend in or enjoys being recognized, since back in early 2011 when this happened, he was still the number three or four starter.

But he signed my little napkin, and that still remains tacked to the corner of my Mark McLemore poster in my bedroom (side note: after the Ichiro trade, I official have zero posters of current Seattle athletes. McLemore, Mike Cameron, Griffey, Jamie Moyer, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Shaun Alexander, and Matt Hasselbeck are all gone). Jason Vargas has been my favorite Mariner since, and that's why I was a little said after I left Safeco last night, knowing that Jason may have thrown his last pitch in a Mariner uniform.

If that was the last time Jason Vargas pitches for the Mariners, I'll be proud of him. Before the season, everyone doubted that Jason could make the transition to consistent top of the rotation type starter. He has his great ups, but also had his awful downs. He needed to develop a certain sense of consistency. With the exception of one start, he has allowed between one and five runs in every start in 2012, compared to 11 outside that range in 2011. Jason Vargas earned the title Mr. Consistency. 

And that consistency boosted his numbers. In 2011, even with all of those incredible shutout starts, Vargas still went just 10-13 with a 4.25 ERA. Now, with all of his new found consistency, Jason set a new personal best for wins in a season. At the end of July. Yeah, consistency is a good thing. Jason is 11-7 with a 3.76 ERA in 2012. He has yet to take the hill and allow zero runs in a start. Yet, his numbers have dwarfed that of last seasons', when he did that five times. Again, Mr. Consistency.

If that was the last time Jason Vargas pitches for the Mariners, I'll be bummed out. We watched Jason develop into a viable major league pitcher for four years. His transition from borderline back end guy to sometimes great sometimes awful, to steady mid-rotation starter has been a rare opportunity to smile over the past four years. Plus who doesn't love seeing that teal throw back shirt every five days?

If Jason truly is done with the Mariners, he won't be remembered as a super starter, because he really wasn't. But outside of Felix, Vargas has given Mariner fans and players a constancy over the past four years that doesn't exist a lot of times in a rebuilding process. Going into this season, the rotation consisted of Felix and who knows what else. At least as we near the trade deadline, the rotation has morphed into Felix, Vargas, and who knows what else. 

Regardless of whether Jason Vargas throws another pitch in a Mariner uniform, I'll always remember him as the guy who came out every five days and worked hard, never missed a start, always ate innings, and seemed to pitch pretty well in the end. It will be a shame if Jason gets moved by the deadline, because he could really help young lefties like Paxton and Hultzen learn what it's like to be a mayor leaguer. I'm going to miss you Jason. Go M's.

MLB Trade Rumors Part 3: Stuff Starts to Happen

By Anthony

So now that Ichiro is gone and we have all talked about it and blogged about it, we can move on to more interesting things. Like more trade rumors! Wooo!!! I love speculation and guessing! 

An update on Jason Vargas. It seems like the Braves are attempting to acquire Ryan Dempster from the Cubs but have to outbid the Dodgers. I have heard the Dodgers are close to a deal but the Braves could still make a move. And since Jack Z has shown no hesitation in getting more pitching for the farm system, anyone of either teams prospects could be acquired. I remain high on first baseman Joe Terdoslavich and am hoping a package deal of Vargas and Wilhelmsen is enough to pry him away from Atlanta. From the Dodgers system, which is worse than Atlanta’s, I like Tim Federowicz, a catcher with excellent defense and a below average bat. Too bad there’s this guy Mike Zunino around hitting home runs all over the place. Outfielder Alfredo Silverio is a nice bat and he is hitting over .300 in AA right now. If the Dodgers don’t move him, Joc Pederson is another option in the outfield.

I will give you two players here to help understand the trade value of Jason Vargas.

Player A: 7-9, 6.13 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.79 ERA, 29.9% flyballs and 0.90 HR/9

Player B: 10-7, 5.93 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 3.91 ERA, 40.6% flyballs and 1.63 HR/9

The Pittsburgh Pirates recently acquired Player A for three of their top 15 prospects. While that sounds like a good thing, the Pirates system isn’t very good somehow and the three have been projected as an average outfielder, a potential #5 starter and a groundballing reliever. Not the best take for a trade deadline acquisition of a veteran lefty starter. Player A is Wandy Rodriguez and player B is Jason Vargas. If the Astros only got an average hitter, a back end starter and a reliever and I like Wandy more than Jason. They have very similar number but for Vargas’ home run problem and that he pitches in Safeco. With Ryan Dempster being linked to the Dodgers, it seems like the Braves are leading the way as suitors for Vargas.

I am still confused about the lack of buzz about Tom Wilhelmsen. He is cheap, he has very low mileage on his arm, he has started throwing a changeup and has an awesome curve. Oh right and he also throws 95. The third pitch addition is nice, especially when it makes Hideki Matsui look ridiculous. Some are thinking about Wilhemsen converting to a starter. It could work out, like Chris Sale. Or blow up like Daniel Bard. Getting back on track, Wilhelmsen isn’t getting too much attention and he should be. Young, cheap and good closers that could become starters are few and far between. 

Kevin Millwood rumors do not exist. I wish they did, but for some reason, no team wants an old, injury prone below average pitcher. I can’t imagine why. So in lieu of informing you about the non-existent rumors, I will make up my own. The Minnesota Twins have been linked to Millwood and have offered a batch of warm brownies and a glass of cold milk. The offer of a free back rub from Ozzie Guillen from the Marlins is still on the table. The offer I like the most is from the Orioles who offered us a monopoly get out of jail free card and an old file cabinet. Whoever Jack Z sees as the best suitor, it seems like he will pull the trigger soon. Millwood is only taking up space and unlike a file cabinet, he cannot store papers inside of him. 

I do enjoy reading MLB trade rumors; the ridiculous hypothetical trades I see can be really tantalizing but can also be really dumb. For instance, the Mariners have been linked to Hanley Ramirez. Really? I cannot see that happening at all. Why would he want to come to the opposite side of the country, to a better league and a park that kills offense? And why would we want him when we have Brad Miller in AA and Nick Franklin in AAA and would have to give up one of the big three pitchers. And right on cue Ramirez is traded to the LA Dodgers. Something to look at here is that he will block Dee Gordon in LA who now may be available for a trade. Gordon isn’t the best contact hitter but he has wheels and is young. Could be an interesting guy to at least look at.

Not much has happened besides that one thing that happened, and hopefully Jack Z needs a get out of jail free card this week when he plays monopoly with his kids. Jason Vargas and Tom Wilhelmsen will hopefully be moved and go to a place that is sunnier or more humid. Preferably more humid and with more Coca-Cola and CNN. Go M’s.

Mariners Make Moves

By Patrick

Welcome back, friends

Unless you live under a rock, you know by now that Ichiro has been traded to the Yankees in return for pitching prospects. What you may have missed is the other move yesterday, which happened after the game. Everyone's favorite Mendoza Line hitting first baseman, Justin Smoak, was optioned to AAA Tacoma after vastly underachieving so far in 2012.

In order to replace Ichiro and Justin at the major league level, Jack Z had to move two players back up from AAA. He chose to replace Smoak at first by re-activating Mike Carp from the DL. Carp, who has been hurt twice this season, will play a ton more first base than he has previously this season, when he featured more commonly in left field. That move apparently is in efforts to keep his arm healthy. Good call. He's hitting seventh tonight against Freddy Garcia and the Yankees.

To replace Ichiro, the Mariners predictably called up their best remaining AAA outfielder, Trayvon Robinson. Every Mariner fan who cared enough to watch in August last year will remember Trayvon for the sparks that he caused in his first week, robbing a homer against the Angels and hitting a few himself. Any Mariner fan who cared enough to watch in late August and through September will remember Trayvon for his horrid .211 batting average and 40% strikeout rate. Hopefully, he worked on that a lot in Tacoma and came up with a new approach at the plate. Something interesting about his new approach is that he stole 9 bases all of last season in AAA and in the bigs but this year has stolen 19 already. He's learning to use his speed, which will make him even more valuable than if he just fixed his strikeout problem.

Overall, I'm excited to see the Starfish and Trayvon back, but more excited to see how the M's will move on from Ichiro. They have a renewed sense of flexibility in their lineup, since they don't have to worry about a diva veteran that has to hit in the top three of the order at all times regardless of numbers. The post-Ichiro era has begun, and boy, am I excited. Go M's.

The Ichiro Trade: That Just Happened

By Anthony

Really, really weird

So yeah, Ichiro is now wearing pinstripes and apparently he asked to be traded a few weeks ago. I don’t know how that affects his legacy here but whatever. Unlike Patrick who texted me “Who Cares Ichiro is Gone.” I actually looked at whom we got and am not really sure what to think. They are D. J. Mitchell and Danny Farquhar, both right handed pitchers. 

Yes. The same team that has some of the best pitching prospects in the league and desperately needs hitting traded for more pitching. That’s like being trapped on a desert island with an unlimited supply of food and in desperate need for water. Then a plane flies by and drops a parcel of food to you, except the pilot knows that you have unlimited food. And that pilot is Jack Z. I haven’t been trapped on a desert island in the same predicament I described, but if I was, I would be pissed off. Damn it Jack Z! We need hitting! 

D. J. Mitchell is pretty easy to figure out compared to Danny Farquhar. Mitchell is a 6-2 starter who went 85 innings in 14 games in AAA. His ERA was 5.04, which is not good, he averaged 7.5 K’s and 3 walks per nine innings, also not great. He has a sinker that he uses quite a bit and generates quite a few ground balls. I can see him as kind of a Hector Noesi but without the home run problem. Some comparisons I have seen link him to Chien-Ming Wong because of the sinker, remember Wong was once a frontline starter for the Yankees. Mitchell is in Tacoma and may see some time in Seattle once rosters expand. I hope he develops into a back of the rotation guy after the big three make it to Seattle.

I read a scouting report on Danny Farquhar. Know what is weirder than his name? The way he pitches. When facing right-handed batters, Farquhar is a side armer with a sweeping slider and a fastball that sits around 90. Against righties that is good. Against lefties though, the right-handed side arm thing isn’t very good. So Farquhar throws over the top. Am I the only one who thinks this is ridiculous? Good pitchers are supposed to have consistent mechanics. I have never heard of a guy who intentionally is inconsistent. His results of course have shown this. He has bounced around from Oakland to Toronto to New York. He too will show up in Tacoma and may be in Seattle for September. I really do want to watch the Farquhar show when he pitches in Seattle, just like I love watching Carlos Peguero.  The entertainment factor would be like watching Munenori Kawasaki sing karaoke with Jackie Chan. 

That’s whom we got in exchange for Ichiro and money. So for all of you are off celebrating the end of the Ichiro era with Patrick, take a glance here and see our returns. If your excitement is not tempered, I guess you really hate Ichiro.