With the Winter Meetings fast approaching (they take place Dec. 3-6, which is next week) and Jonah Keri writing a similar list recently for Grantland, we here at Way Out in Left Field decided to make a trade value rankings list of our own.
Anthony will be commenting on my selections and making sure that there is someone there to make fun of me/call me out if I put Carlos Peguero on this list. He is far too excited to do this.
A few guidelines before I start. This list factors in every player in the Mariners organization. Whereas Keri's list only featured major leaguers, my rankings includes players on the active roster, on the 40-man, and those who aren't on either yet.
Moreover, I ranked the players based on their ability to acquire the most possible talent in return if traded. The rankings are not impacted by the likelihood a player will get traded whatsoever. James Paxton doesn't get any sort of boost because the Royals would send the Mariners Billy Butler if he was included in the deal, for example. (If you are playing a drinking game for this article, drink every time Patrick mentions Billy Butler)
Finally, I chose to rank 15 players to show I have a bit of organizational confidence. Twenty-five would have been too many, and 10 wouldn't have told the whole story. So 15 it is.
Without further ado, your Way Out in Left Field trade value rankings (don't sue us Grantland):
15. Hisashi Iwakuma
He's sort of unknown still, since he only has one major league season under his belt, and started for only half that time. But what he showed as a starter makes him valuable. He finished last season with a 9-5 record and a 3.16 ERA. However, his contract isn't the most economical, as he's set to make $6.5 million this season with a $7 million option for 2014.
Iwakuma gets K's and if he can control the homerun problem he had last year, could be one of those weird trades that nobody really pays attention to because, well, he is Hisashi Iwakuma.
14. Jason Vargas
The Mariners have seemingly been shopping Vargas for a while now, and the fly-balling lefty could be capable of bringing a B-level prospect back from a willing buyer. His value could certainly depreciate in 2013, as the spaciousness of Safeco (which is thought to be his saving grace most of the time) decreases with the fences coming in. However, he's coming off of a career year, where he set a career high in wins at 14-11 with a 3.85 ERA. His consistency increased, and that bodes well for him in a trade, even with his expect $7 million-plus new deal through arbitration this winter.
And so continues Patrick's love affair with Dr. Jekyl. As someone not in love with Jason, I see a package that is less than what we got for Jarrod Washburn. Meaning worse than Luke "I am pretty awful" French and Mauricio "Why was he put on the 40 man roster in 2010" Robles.
13. Michael Saunders
Roughly nine months ago, the Condor's inclusion on this list would have been ludicrous (Or Rickdiculous). However, after a solid 2012 season during which he hit .247 with 19 homers and 57 RBI, he could definitely draw some value players, especially if included in a bigger deal, like the one Dave Schoenfield suggested the other day. His contract situation is interesting, as he missed the "super two" deadline by one day, which would have allowed him salary arbitration for this upcoming season. Instead, he'll probably make well under $1 million again this season and therefore be a cheap option for teams looking for outfield depth.
What has to be remembered when thinking about Saunders' trade value at this point, is that he was a horrible player before last year. So you may understand why some teams aren't so high on the condor right now.
12. Mike Zunino
This was a tough one to gauge for two reasons. First, there's no way in hell the Mariners would ever trade him. He's the catcher and offense stalwart of the future for the organization. As a result, not much is known about how other organizations value him, so his trade return becomes harder to evaluate. The fact remains that Zunino looks like a complete stud from his time in Everett, Jackson, and the AFL with the Peoria Javelinas (awesome name). He could appear with the Mariners in 2013. He was drafted in June 2012. That doesn't often happen. The guy can rake. His trade value will increase even more if he proves he can stick behind the plate.
The Javelina is actually a collared peccary. And if you know what a peccary is, congratulations. In other news, I would not call him an offensive stalwart just yet, small sample sizes and all. But Zunino will not be traded, mostly because of the reasons Patrick listed but also because my brother bought his jersey already. His jersey collection now includes Zunino, Ichiro and Lofa Tatupu. Oh wait, nevermind...
11. Tom Wilhelmsen
The Bartender established himself as a legit closer in 2012, with 29 saves in 34 opportunities after taking over in May for Brandon League. He has two superb pitches, his heater and hammer-curve, which make him a perfect late game out-getter. Plus, he has an astounding four more years of club control, which makes him easy to move. The only reason he's this far down on this list is because he's a reliever, and the Mariners have two other relievers with more trade upside.
For those readers who don't know, its really easy to find decent relievers from the scrap heap. Look at Oliver Perez, Josh Kinney and Wilhelmsen. He is one of the people who could actually get moved mid-season and actually get us something interesting, like more than Luke "Secretly loves Rebecca Black" French and Mauricio "I prefer Burger King to McDonald's" Robles
10. Stephen Pryor
9. Carter Capps
These two will be linked by Mariners followers because of the proximity of their big league call-ups in 2012 and their abilities to throw 100 MPH gas (And baseballs). Both are under club control for another half-decade, and they both showed MLB talent in limited action last season. Pryor became the defacto set-up man for the M's later in the year, and Capps showed huge upside in middle relief. The Mariners won't trade these guys, since they view them both as potential future closers.
All we need now is for my brother to buy both their jerseys and they'll be here for good, right?
8. Nick Franklin
Is this a little low for the Mariners' top hitting prospect? Probably. But there is too much mystery surrounding Franklin for him to be higher. Will he make it to the majors this season? What position does he play best, short, second, or somewhere else? Can he improve upon his .243 in AAA last year and be a solid, top-of-the-order MLB hitter? Too many questions. He would be a nice piece in a Billy Butler trade however.
Yes, this is low for a switch-hitting middle infielder with power who is only 21 and played last year in AAA. And that's one drink.
7. Dustin Ackley
Ackley and Franklin are pretty similar, with Dustin being Nick's major league equivalent. Ackley shined in his rookie year, hitting .276 in half a season. It seemed natural that he would improve into a legit .300 hitter at the top of the lineup. Then he hit .226. So, at this point, nobody really knows what Ackley will become at the major league level. He was considered untouchable a year ago, but now, he might make an intriguing trade piece at the Winter Meetings.
Nobody really knows where he will play at the major league level either. And since he survived the sophomore slump, he will be fine. Also, what happens at the winter meetings? Do the GM's and team executives talk all day? Seems pretty dull to me.
6. James Paxton
I wanted to group the big three together, but that really doesn't make sense, especially since Paxton struggled with injuries (Injury) in 2012. He has always been considered the least of the group of elite pitching prospects which also includes Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker. Paxton went 9-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 21 starts last season in AA Jackson. He threw about five innings per start, which means he's not as MLB ready as some teams (the Royals apparently) think. Still, he could probably be the centerpiece of a big deal for a guy like Billy Butler. I want Billy Butler. Can you tell?
No, I had no idea. Your parents must love shopping for you for Christmas. Also, I don't see the Royals getting Paxton or any of our guys. They want MLB ready pitching, not prospects. So no Billy Butler, sorry Patrick. Here's a cute picture of him to remember him by as you drink a second time.
5. Kyle Seager
One year ago, Seager being on this list would have been crazy. It's hard to remember, but in April, the Mariners thought Seager would back up Chone Figgins at third in 2012. He then went on to lead the team offensively, hitting .259 with 20 homers and 86 RBI. His 86 RBI ranked third among MLB third basemen, behind Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre. So Seager is possibly the Mariners' most valuable organizational hitter. I don't think he is, but you could certainly make that case, and Seager could draw some top players in a trade.
Hmmmm.... I never thought I would see the day that Seager is mentioned in the same list as Beltre and Cabrera, except at a chicken wings eating contest. I would put money on Beltre to win that, he is more aerodynamic than Cabrera.
4. Danny Hultzen
Hultzen could probably pitch in Seattle in April. He could headline a trade for a top major league bat. But what is his upside? He went 8-3 with a 1.19 ERA in the season's first half in Jackson. Maybe that's his upside? Then he went 1-4 with a 5.92 ERA in Tacoma. That's not his upside. Hopefully, the Tacoma stint was just a sign of fatigue for Hultzen. He was only drafted about a year and a half ago. A lot of people forget that. Other organizations still salivate over him, and so I could almost see him getting swapped one-for-one for a great prospect hitter like Will Myers if that's what Jack Z wanted to do.
Nope, nope, nope. Wil Meyers will not be swapped one for one for Hultzen. Maybe Walker and a toss in, like Mauricio "I prefer Crystal Geyser bottled water" Robles. I don't know if many teams salivate over players, unless they have cannibalistic tendencies like the San Diego Padres, but that was in the 80's and everyone was a little weird then.
3. Taijuan Walker
The Mariners view Walker as the next Felix. We heard so much about Hultzen last year, people overlook the fact that Tai had a terrible year in Jackson. He went 7-10 with a 4.69 ERA. Not exactly ace material. But the hype still exists within and outside the organization, and he's only 20. That's his biggest asset. He's still really young. He's a year away from the majors most likely, and that's why he doesn't rank as the ace on this list.
I will throw this out there, he threw more innings than he has in his entire life this year so fatigue probably is an issue. However, he could be moved if the M's do their usual surprise everyone thing, and what we would get would be glorious. Let's just hope that if he goes to the Padres, they stay strong and don't get tempted like they did with Jake Peavy.
2. Jesus Montero
The former top prospect in the Yankees organization has diminished in value for two reasons. One, he can't play catcher according to everyone who matters (So everyone but Miguel Olivo and Mauricio "I think fire alarms are fun" Robles). So he'll be a career DH unless he learns to play first base. Learn to play first, Jesus. Secondly, he was underwhelming last year. He hit .260 with 15 homers and 62 RBI. Not great, but pretty typical Mariners numbers. This year will be big in determining his future success as far as opposing GMs are concerned. For now, he could easily be swapped one-for-one for Billy Butler (Drink) and both teams would be satisfied. I do not endorse this trade however.
Stop thinking about Billy Butler! He is way too hot for us right now, we are the nerdy kid in high school right now who will get rich after college. Billy Butler is the super hot girl in high school. Way out of our league. And for Montero's first season in the MLB in the wilds of Safeco, he wasn't too bad. Just learn to play first Jesus, I'll teach you. First lesson, put foot on base and then catch the ball.
1. Felix Hernandez
The King is the only Mariners player that could draw one or more top prospect back on his own. He was top five in the Cy Young this year, and threw a perfect game, which, fun fact, only 22 other pitchers have done (But Phil Humber is on that list). But Jack Z has said he's not going anywhere. Fine by me. All hail the King.
Would it be funny if someone tried a coup this year. Like if Erasmo Ramirez starting wearing a "Impeach the King" shirt around? Or if Carter Capps hung a sign in the bullpen that said "Viva la Revolucion!" I don't know about his pitching but Felix's fiscal policies have failed and don't get me started on his foreign policy decisions. If you can't tell, I am not worried about Felix getting traded.
We'll continue to update these rankings if one or more of these players gets moved.
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