By: Anthony
The next Randy Johnson?
For those of you who follow the
M’s, you should know the name Danny Hultzen by now. You probably know he was
our top draft pick last year and you may know he was assigned to AA Jackson
this year with the rest of the “Big Three.” What you may not know is that he
absolutely tore up Jackson, posting an 8-3 record with an ERA of 1.19. You also
may to know he was promoted to Tacoma mid-season because he was tearing up the
Southern League. You may know that he has since struggled mightily in Tacoma,
posting a 1-4 record with an ERA of 5.92.
His dip in
production can be attributed to fatigue after a full season or the level of
competition increase in AAA. But I am not worried about those things, every
pitcher faces those things at some point and most adapt and get over it. I
expect Hultzen to do that. What I am worried about is his peripheral stats, or
the ones that aren’t wins or ERA and that is what the majority of this article
will be about.
When
Hultzen was drafted out of Virgina, he was labeled as a lower ceiling, polished
starting pitcher who was supposed to be the closest to arriving in the Major
Leagues. He didn’t have lights out stuff, but he had above average command,
above average secondary stuff and a solid fastball. In short, he wasn’t the
next Verlander but was supposed to be a good number 2 starter.
I watched
Hultzen in the Arizona Fall League after he signed last minute (literally) and
was impressed. He seemed to be as advertised. In 6 games he went 19 innings and
walked only 5 while striking out 18. Pretty good numbers, but it was the
Arizona Fall League so the it made sense he would strike out more people. I
wasn’t surprised to see him assigned to the AA squad after Spring Training, he
was the most advanced of the “Big Three” but the team thought it was important
to keep them together.
In Jackson
he was good, as I have already mentioned. But it was a different kind of good;
he did not pitch like the command lefty with above average secondary stuff he
was labeled as. He made 13 starts and went 75 innings, walking 32 and striking
out 79. His K/9 and BB/9 each jumped by about 1. He was becoming more of a
James Paxton than what he was billed to be. (Paxton is another member of the
“Big Three” who is more of a Randy Johnson type lefty than Hultzen. That is, he
strikes out guys and walks guys a lot.) These results weren’t bad, in the big
picture Hultzen was still lights out, but it was a little disconcerting. Did
all the draft scouts get Hultzen wrong? Was his fastball better than they
thought? Was his command worse? It seemed a little odd but he still made the
trip to Tacoma.
The jump
from AA to AAA is a little bigger than the jump from A to AA. In AAA there are
established MLB hitters who are trying to make a roster, guys who have faced
Verlander’s and Sabathia’s and have a more advanced eye. And Hultzen’s command
problems got worse, along with his overall numbers. He made 12 starts for the
Rainiers, going 48 innings and walking 43 and striking out 57. His BB/9 jumped
up to nearly 8 and his K/99 was about 10.5. He clearly struggled with the jump
in competition and all thoughts of him making an appearance in Seattle were
done.
So what exactly
made Hultzen’s walk rate and K rate steadily increase with the higher he went?
Something I noticed when I watched him pitch in Tacoma was his ability to focus
with guys on base. I know I have ridiculed Kevin Millwood endlessly for his
ability to strand runners (See side note). I remember one inning where Hultzen
walked a guy on four pitches to load the bases. There was a brief meeting at
the mound and the first pitch Hultzen threw after the meeting was clocked at 95,
not the 92 he had been sitting at. The batter looked almost helpless at the
plate. In Jackson he had a left-on-base percentage of 84%. That is, of all the
runners to get on base against him, 84% of them were left on base. In the Fall
League he had a LOB% of 91.8. In Tacoma he had a LOB% of 65. That is a huge
drop off.
Hultzen
simply was unable to focus and step up his game with runners on. It absolutely
has something to do with his lack of command, since the more guys that are on
base, the more likely they will score. It could be attributed to the better
competition or the mental and physical fatigue he is battling. The minor league
season is long and he is in his first year still so an adjustment period is
needed.
Baseball is
not an easy game but it has been so far for Danny Hultzen. I seriously doubt he
has really struggled before and it is a good thing for him to go through. Now
he has to learn how to get through these things. He has the talent and I’m sure
the team will be working with him this winter to get him ready for a run at the
2013 rotation in Seattle.
The
question still remains about what kind of pitcher Hultzen will be. Will he
revert to the polished lefty mold or will he continue down the James Paxton/
Randy Johnson mold?
Side note: Kevin
Millwood’s career LOB% is 71%, the league average. Boom!
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