Projecting the 2013 Rotation

By Patrick

"You think they'll resign me, ball?"

"I sure hope they resign you Hisashi."
"Me too, Moony. Go back to shortstop now."

Yes, I'm back. My absence from Way Out resulted from me going back to college and being not only very busy, but also pretty removed from the Mariners. I haven't written since Felix's Supreme Court night, which was a really long time ago. Felix was a Cy Young Candidate back then. I'm as angry about his decline as you are.

Today I want to talk about the Mariners rotation in 2013. Starting pitching is definitely the Mariners' strength from an organizational standpoint, and they have a number of developing young pitchers who could become superstars. While that is certainly a major plus, the downside of all that talent is deciding who gets a rotation spot and who doesn't, and when to cast off veterans who ultimately aren't a part of the organizations future. Jack Z has some seriously difficult decisions to make in this regard. Let's look at the possible candidates for those all-important five spots.

Current M's Rotation:

Felix Hernandez, RHP, 27 in 2013
Jason Vargas, LHP, 30 in 2013
Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP, 32 in 2013
Kevin Millwood, RHP, 38 in 2013
Blake Beavan, RHP, 24 in 2013

The two guys who are sort of in the rotation too:

Erasmo Ramirez, RHP, 23 for most of 2013
Hector Noesi, RHP, 26 in 2013

The big three:

Danny Hultzen, LHP, 23 in 2013
James Paxton, LHP, 24 in 2013
Taijuan Walker, RHP, 20 for most of 2013

Other options:
Unnamed veteran free agent
Andrew Carraway RHP, 26 for most of 2013
Charlie Furbush, LHP, 27 in 2013
Tom Wilhelmsen, RHP, 29 in 2013

OK, so that's 14 potential options. That's a lot to sift through. Let me cross off a few options right away though. The Mariners are not going to bring back Millwood. He has zero upside, and should probably retire. We can probably also rule out Wilhelmsen, who's conversion to the rotation has been discussed mostly by bloggers and radio hosts, but really isn't taken seriously by the organization. He's probably too old to make a change like that anyway, regardless of the fact that he has three solid pitches. Furbush is in a similar boat to Tommy, and probably could make a few spot starts, but is better suited to a middle relief role.

Now we have 11. I don't think the Mariners will spend money on a veteran free agent starter this year. With all of the rising youth and the potential presence of Jason Vargas and Hisashi Iwakuma, a Kevin Millwood-type pitcher won't be necessary, and that money can be used to upgrade the offense.

So that leaves ten starters within the organization with a chance to crack the rotation. Here's how I see it shaking out.

1. Felix
2. Vargas
3. Iwakuma
4. Ramirez
5. Hultzen

Let's look at this top to bottom. Felix will be the ace of the staff if he's on the Mariners. Since Jack Z will probably go all out to resign him this offseason, and Felix says he loves Seattle, he' psalmist guaranteed the top spot next spring. After Felix, it gets more complicated.

Vargas and Iwakuma both have complex contract situations that could lead to their return or exit just as easily. Iwakuma's is simple on paper. He has a one-year deal set to expire at the end of the season. But he's not a conventional free agent, since he will be a 32-year old second-year player in 2013. His asking price will probably exceed the $1.5 million he made this year, and I think the Mariners will be willing to give him a small raise because of how good he can be when healthy. His performances in the second half of this season have earned him a return to the staff.

Vargas' contract is more complicated. He made a shade under $5 million this year, and is arbitration eligible to try and increase that or possibly test free agency. I think the Mariners will be able to talk Vargas' price down, since he still relies heavily on the dimensions of Safeco Field for success. If they can sign him for under $7 million, it will be worth it for one more year. I fully expect Jason to leave in 2014 as a free agent, but until then, he'll probably hold the two-spot until one of the big three step up and take it from him.

Following the veterans, I like Ramirez to slot comfortably into the back of the rotation, where he hopefully will be for years to come. He's pitched admirably as a rookie, and probably could have stayed in the rotation most of this year if it wasn't for his elbow injury and subsequent AAA demotion. He'll impress in the spring and lockdown a spot in the top five.

Hultzen is a bit of gamble as far as projections are concerned. In June, Hultzen's arrival in the big leagues in 2012 wasn't a question of if, but one of when. But then he struggled with command in AAA, and never quite made it up I5 for any of this season. That's a bit nerve-wracking. However, using former Mariners top prospect Michael Pineda as precedence, I think Hultzen will break camp as the fifth starter and slowly climb up the rotation and be the consensus number two going into 2014.

As for the five other guys, their fates are uncertain. Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan are starting pitchers, but may only find work available in the bullpen. Noesi has done that before, but Beavan hasn't. At the same time, if Beavan breaks camp in AAA, that would kind of make him seem like a 4A player (which he is). I would say trade one or both of them, but they both came over in recent blockbuster trades, so I'm not sure if that's what Jack Z will do. That being said, I bet Noesi and Beavan both start 2013 in AAA.

And why not have the other three (Paxton, Walker, and Carraway) round out the rotation in Tacoma when the M's break camp? How great would that be for a AAA rotation. Hector Noesi might still be the worst pitcher! A rotation of Walker, Beavan, Paxton, Carraway, and Noesi would probably get the Rainiers back on track and boost confidence in the immediacy of the Mariners' playoff ascent.

At this point, next season is all that matters. The Mariners' goal in 2013 has to be to contend for a playoff spot. With that in mind, they need to do what's best for the organization, and that's resigning Vargas and Iwakuma and working Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker into the rotation as the year progresses. Go M's, and it's great to be back.