By: Anthony
There are
two things I would like to say before I get into the article. First of all for
those who are wondering where Patrick is and why he has not written anything
recently, he is alive and well. He is at school now, like a loser (The quarter
system is much better), and is writing for the school paper there. He is busy
and the Mariners have not earned much of his time recently. He said he would
write something soon, so look out for that maybe. Also, the Jackson Generals
are in the Southern League Championship Series. It is not very consequential
for the Mariners but good for them and its nice that guys like Miller, Paxton
and Walker all get to experience that kind of atmosphere.
If any
reader is tracking the articles we publish, they will probably see that most of
them aren’t dedicated to the big league squad right now. And there is a reason
for that; they just aren’t very interesting. As much as I want to write about
Carlos Triunfel striking out on three pitches or Hector Noesi getting a start,
I really don’t. So we write about more interesting things, like what the team needs
to do in the offseason. Something this article covers, and more specifically
Justin Upton.
If only we could trade Carlos Triunfel for you straight up...
Upton is
only 24 and has already been in the MVP race once, a year ago when he placed
fourth. That guy sounds awesome right? We would have to give up quite the
package to get him right? Umm, well probably? The Diamondbacks aren’t happy
with him and have repeatedly tried to shop him around, despite him being one of
their best players. I wish I could decode this into concrete terms, but I am
not a psychic, sorry to ruin that for all of you. So I have to do my best
decoding into less than concrete terms.
Upton is available, unlike most 24-year-old
players who have played in over 700 MLB games and played on two All-Star teams.
Usually those guys are highly valued and are signed to extensions. But since
the D-Backs don’t like his attitude very much, they are shopping him. What they
will want in return will definitely not be cheap. We would have to part with
one of the “Big Three”, or Nick Franklin along with some other prospects to get
him. Like I said, it will be a steep price. If we do deal Franklin, one of our
other starting prospects will have to be included. Guys like Brandon Maurer,
Andrew Carraway and James Gilheeney are names that would probably be included.
That is the price of Upton, but
this is what he brings to the table. He has a career slash line (average/
slugging/ on-base) of .276/.376/.473 and he fills in a corner outfield slot. He
has a rare package of power and speed, not unlike his brother B.J of the Rays,
(Who is going to be a free agent. Family reunion in Seattle anyone?). He has
stolen over 20 bases twice and seems to be in 15-20 range pretty consistently.
He is also in the 20% K rate and 10% walk rate range consistently as well. What
I like about Upton is his age and his upside, once again, 24 with two all-star
seasons. Unfortunately there are some red flags that aren’t just attitude
related.
When I talked about Swisher,
Hamilton and company and evaluated them I stressed health, consistency and
cost. I have already discussed Upton’s cost, which does not help his case.
Frankly, his health is not good. He has played one full season once and seems
to hover about the 130 games range. Yay he is consistent! Boo that he is
consistently not healthy! That is one thing I do not like about him, the second
is his streakiness. In 2011, he was an animal. He hit 31 home runs, had an
average of .289 and stole 21 bases. That is awesome. However, this year he has
taken a step back. His K rate has gone up and his average, homers and stolen
bases have all dropped. This drop is not unprecedented in his short pro career.
In 2009 he hit .300/.366/.532 with 26 home runs. Then in 2010 those numbers
dropped to .273/.356/.442 with only 17 home runs. So is he in line for another
big year in 2013? I don’t really want to find out. He is not consistent.
Another thing I want to address is
that he has been playing half of his games in Arizona, a place Jason Vargas
hates with a passion. He would be moving from a great park for hitters to the
death valley of Safeco Field. I do not see that playing well with his power
numbers, a major reason we would be trading for him. However, Upton is still
coming into his prime as a player and is only owed $38.5 million over the next
3 years.
This is a tough decision and Jack Z
has shown a knack for making big trades that nobody really sees coming (Cliff
Lee, Michael Pineda, etc.). But I would not support this trade if it happened
as I have projected the price it. We would have to give up one of the “Big
Three” and another solid prospect like Stefan Romero or Brad Miller. Upton is
not healthy, is not cheap and is not consistent. If I am the Diamondbacks, I am
creating a bidding war between teams like the Red Sox who need a young power
hitter to rebuild around and driving his price up. Bidding wars are not good
for the teams bidding and unless we can get him from the D-Backs for less than
one of the “Big Three” he is not worth it. Sorry Justin, but you join Josh
Hamilton on my “Please Don’t Come Here List. ” (Also there are Kevin Millwood
and Cliff Pennington {I hate Cliff Pennington more than I hate an overcooked
beef wellington. And I cannot stand a good beef wellington being overdone.}). Go
Mariners for those who are still paying attention.
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