Monday, September 24, 2012

What the Future Holds: Third Base

By: Anthony
If you haven’t read my first two pieces on first base and the middle infield, here they are.
The hot corner is a feast or famine position. Meaning that teams either have a very good third baseman or a guy who can play there but is a hole in the lineup. For instance, Evan Longoria, David Wright and Adrian Beltre all play 3B for a contender. Know who else plays 3B in the MLB? Joaquin Arias, Brandon Inge and Jordan Pacheco. So the drop off is pretty steep from star to Chone Figgins. But seriously, I will not mention Chone again in this column. I will put 100:1 odds on Chone playing for Seattle next year. You may email me at terriblebets@gmail.com (all emails sent here will not be answered since it is a fake email address).
You're going to talk about me right?
 The Mariners are actually doing awesome here. Understand by awesome I mean that there is a young player who is performing at third base and minor leaguers who are not. Kyle Seager was supposed to be a middle infielder/ utility player. So basically Muenori Kawasaki without the dance moves. But then he shows up this year and takes over our offense, (At least away from Safeco). I could talk about how much I enjoy watching Seager hit, or I could make more Chone Figgins jokes. I’ll let you, the reader, decide. Go ahead, think about it. I’ll wait. (Pondering the life cycle of a western Red Wood tree). Sorry I have been in college this week, so I have been getting super intellectual. Anyway, my favorite Chone Figgins fun facts.
1.     His name is actually Desmond, not Chone for all those confused
2.     He was acquired by the Angels in a trade for Kimera Bartee
3.     He was born in Leary, Georgia
4.     He will not play for the Seattle Mariners next year
Clearly those weren’t in order since Leary, Georgia was mentioned third on that list. But Chone is terrible and according to my sources and instincts, Jack Z resents ever signing him (Seriously, both played a role in that opinion).
Super Stud            
This how much I’ll talk about Kyle Seager. He should and must stay at 3B. He has been solid defensively and has been one of our best hitters. He may be better defensively at 2B, but we already have numerous guys who could play there in the next five years, and we don’t need another one of those players. Our talent pool in the middle infield is much better than at third and Seager has been a bright spot in a relatively uninteresting year.
            So what exactly do we have in our minor league system at 3B? We have Alex Liddi, who I do not think will be able to hang in the MLB, especially with his current K rate. We have Vinnie Catricala, who was the most valuable hitter in the Mariners system last year. Francisco Martinez was hanging around in Jackson and Steven Proscia was basking in the glory of High Desert.
             
Alex Liddi is the first Italian-born player to play in the major leagues. Yay for fun facts! He also hit grand slams in back-to-back games a few years ago in Spring Training. Yay for fun facts! He has a K rate of 38% in 170 major league at-bats. That’s not very fun. And that is why I do not think Alex Liddi will stick with the Mariners. But something I do like from Liddi is that he is only 24 right now and still has a year or so to figure it out. He needs to cut down on his K’s drastically and has to work on getting on base more. His OBP is .278 right now, a pretty mediocre batting average. Liddi certainly has power, his .458 slugging in Tacoma shows that but like most young power hitters he has to drop his K rate to stay on the roster. I think Liddi starts off the year in AAA unless he makes big strides this off-season.
            Vinnie Catricala had never hit below .300 in the Mariners system since he started in rookie ball in 2009. This led to him being lauded as a big prospect for the M’s, that and his OPS being over 1.000 in a 2011 year split between High Desert and Jackson. He was put on the Rainiers to start the year in 2012 and struggled. He hit .229 and had an OPS of .640 in 507 at-bats. It was weird to see him struggle for a few reasons, one of them being that he had not struggled before. Another being that his K rate and BB rate were right about where they had been before in his career. Something I see is that his batting-average-on-balls-in-play dropped about .100 points. Unfortunately there is not very much data available to look at his fly ball and ground ball ratios that would help immensely in analyzing his BABIP. So for now I will just say that the Arizona Fall League will show whether this year was a random aberration of luck or whether Catricala needs another year in Tacoma. I think he will shine in the AFL but won’t make the M’s because of his limited defensive capabilities; he will probably have to shift to left field if he wants to see regular playing time.
            Francisco Martinez was acquired in the Doug Fister trade, one that is looking pretty bad for the M’s right now. Casper Wells is pretty meh and Chance Ruffin struggled in Tacoma. Martinez was supposed to be the best player acquired in that trade for us so hopefully he outperforms Ruffin and Wells. Martinez is a bit different of a 3B than normal. He is more of a speedy, average hitter versus a stocky power hitter that most third basemen are. He had 27 stolen bases this year for Jackson but only hit a pedestrian .227 with an OPS of .610. He also struck out 21% of the time. He clearly needs more seasoning before getting called up. I think he starts in Jackson and moves up when Catricala is called up to Seattle.
            I don’t know what it is about the ACC that the Mariners love, but Proscia is another product of University of Virginia (Joining Danny Hultzen and John Hicks) who saw some time in Jackson last year. He is more of a traditional third basemen in the big power mold. He spent most of his time this year in High Desert where he did what most people do in High Desert. He hit .330 with an OPS of .930 with a slugging percentage of .564. His K rate is still about 20% which is normal. Most power hitters sit around that but I would like to see him get that number around 15% before he gets to the higher levels. He should start the year in Jackson, splitting time with Martinez.
            Other names that you may want to know are Patrick Kivlehan and Jordy Lara. I have already talked about Kivlehan and his raw talent and power. Lara is not very important; he just won the best name for a third baseman in the Mariners system. There wasn’t much selection.
            Third base is a position of strength for the Mariners, mostly because of Kyle Seager. His break out season will have to be continued with Catricala and Martinez in the system but I do not see either of them replacing him next year. This is one position that is locked down, even when the M’s become contenders. It is one of the few for the team so we should enjoy it while we can.
           
           

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