How Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez Fit in 2013

            With the addition of Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez, the Mariners offseason is looking more active, but not really productive. The Jason Vargas trade is nice, Kendrys Morales is a fun player, as long as he stays away from walk-off home run celebrations. But I really don’t like the addition of Bay or Ibanez. They are redundant and waste spots on the roster. I am struggling to see how they make sense without more trades coming and I’ll show you why by breaking down what the roster could look like in 2013.

            

In 5 seconds, bad things will happen

The infield is pretty set with Jaso, Montero, Morales, Smoak, Ryan, Ackley and Seager. However, we do still need a third catcher who can backup Montero or Jaso when both are in the lineup. And then a backup infielder that can play the other three spots is necessary to give Ackley, Ryan or Seager a day off, either someone like Nick Franklin, Carlos Triunfel or a cheap free agent. So that is nine guys needed to fill in the infield spots on the roster. The Mariners now have to decide to carry 11 or 12 pitchers. If Bay makes the roster, the M’s will be forced to carry 11 pitcher because we cannot have Bay/Ibanez playing everyday, they are too old and not good enough defensively. If Bay doesn’t that makes things a little more interesting.

These guys are fighting for the 4 or 5 roster spots         

Eric Thames (L)

Michael Saunders (L)

Raul Ibanez (L)

Jason Bay (R)

Franklin Gutierrez (R)

Casper Wells (R)

Mike Carp (L)

            Saunders, Wells and Guti can all fill in at CF. And I expect Guti and Saunders to be playing most of the time after successful seasons last year. Ibanez seems to be fitting in the role as bench player who could be platooned with Bay or Wells in left field. It seems like Wells is battling Bay for the platoon spot with Raul. However, if Bay does make it, Wells seems like the most likely to get the 5^th outfield spot because he can play center and backup Saunders and Guti when/ if they get injured.

            

Please do awful in Spring Training

If Bay does do awful in Spring Training and does not make the roster and Wells does platoon with Raul, its Thames against Carp for the 5^th outfield spot. Or another reliever. Wilhelmsen, Capps, Pryor, Luetge, Furbush, Perez all seem to be locks so it is a question of Kinney, Ruffin, Kelley or LaFromboise. This is just as complicated as it looks on paper.

            The outfield of Saunders, Guti, Bay/Ibanez does not seem very good. Offensively, Ibanez is not very good anymore. His stats were inflated by playing in Yankee Stadium and being strictly platooned to favor himself. Even if we do that, playing in Safeco will hurt him, as will being a year older and having to play defense. Bay is a wild card who has some reward for a very small investment. But their addition, at best, makes one slightly above average outfielder and wastes two roster spots. Fantastic. Casper Wells and Eric Thames are a much better option than Ibanez and Bay. But they will be stuck fighting it out with Bay for a roster spot.

            So for now, with the addition of Ibanez, Morales and Bay, the Mariners may not have gotten better but they have made their roster decisions much more difficult and they are in no way done with their moves this offseason. And it looks like Mike Carp and maybe even Eric Thames could be the ones moving away from the Pacific Northwest.

            And now it has been announced that DJ Mitchell has been designated for assignment to make room for Raul, meaning the M’s have 10 days to trade, cut or resign him off of the 40 man roster. So, for the record this is what happened on the 40 man roster.

Added- Raul Ibanez from 2009-2012

.280/ .349/.517 at home, in New York and Philadelphia (Lefty friendly ball parks)

.239/.301/.417 on the road

Dropped (Potentially)- DJ Mitchell in 2012 in AAA

9-6, 4.29 ERA, 7.03 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9

FANTASTIC!

Mariners Trade Value Rankings

By Patrick

With the Winter Meetings fast approaching (they take place Dec. 3-6, which is next week) and Jonah Keri writing a similar list recently for Grantland, we here at Way Out in Left Field decided to make a trade value rankings list of our own.

Anthony will be commenting on my selections and making sure that there is someone there to make fun of me/call me out if I put Carlos Peguero on this list. He is far too excited to do this. 

A few guidelines before I start. This list factors in every player in the Mariners organization. Whereas Keri's list only featured major leaguers, my rankings includes players on the active roster, on the 40-man, and those who aren't on either yet.

Moreover, I ranked the players based on their ability to acquire the most possible talent in return if traded. The rankings are not impacted by the likelihood a player will get traded whatsoever. James Paxton doesn't get any sort of boost because the Royals would send the Mariners Billy Butler if he was included in the deal, for example. (If you are playing a drinking game for this article, drink every time Patrick mentions Billy Butler)

Finally, I chose to rank 15 players to show I have a bit of organizational confidence. Twenty-five would have been too many, and 10 wouldn't have told the whole story. So 15 it is.

Without further ado, your Way Out in Left Field trade value rankings (don't sue us Grantland):

15. Hisashi Iwakuma

He's sort of unknown still, since he only has one major league season under his belt, and started for only half that time. But what he showed as a starter makes him valuable. He finished last season with a 9-5 record and a 3.16 ERA. However, his contract isn't the most economical, as he's set to make $6.5 million this season with a $7 million option for 2014.
Iwakuma gets K's and if he can control the homerun problem he had last year, could be one of those weird trades that nobody really pays attention to because, well, he is Hisashi Iwakuma.

14. Jason Vargas

The Mariners have seemingly been shopping Vargas for a while now, and the fly-balling lefty could be capable of bringing a B-level prospect back from a willing buyer. His value could certainly depreciate in 2013, as the spaciousness of Safeco (which is thought to be his saving grace most of the time) decreases with the fences coming in. However, he's coming off of a career year, where he set a career high in wins at 14-11 with a 3.85 ERA. His consistency increased, and that bodes well for him in a trade, even with his expect $7 million-plus new deal through arbitration this winter.
And so continues Patrick's love affair with Dr. Jekyl. As someone not in love with Jason, I see a package that is less than what we got for Jarrod Washburn. Meaning worse than Luke "I am pretty awful" French and Mauricio "Why was he put on the 40 man roster in 2010" Robles.

13. Michael Saunders

Roughly nine months ago, the Condor's inclusion on this list would have been ludicrous (Or Rickdiculous). However, after a solid 2012 season during which he hit .247 with 19 homers and 57 RBI, he could definitely draw some value players, especially if included in a bigger deal, like the one Dave Schoenfield suggested the other day. His contract situation is interesting, as he missed the "super two" deadline by one day, which would have allowed him salary arbitration for this upcoming season. Instead, he'll probably make well under $1 million again this season and therefore be a cheap option for teams looking for outfield depth.
What has to be remembered when thinking about Saunders' trade value at this point, is that he was a horrible player before last year. So you may understand why some teams aren't so high on the condor right now.

12. Mike Zunino

This was a tough one to gauge for two reasons. First, there's no way in hell the Mariners would ever trade him. He's the catcher and offense stalwart of the future for the organization. As a result, not much is known about how other organizations value him, so his trade return becomes harder to evaluate. The fact remains that Zunino looks like a complete stud from his time in Everett, Jackson, and the AFL with the Peoria Javelinas (awesome name). He could appear with the Mariners in 2013. He was drafted in June 2012. That doesn't often happen. The guy can rake. His trade value will increase even more if he proves he can stick behind the plate.
The Javelina is actually a collared peccary. And if you know what a peccary is, congratulations. In other news, I would not call him an offensive stalwart just yet, small sample sizes and all. But Zunino will not be traded, mostly because of the reasons Patrick listed but also because my brother bought his jersey already. His jersey collection now includes Zunino, Ichiro and Lofa Tatupu. Oh wait, nevermind...

11. Tom Wilhelmsen

The Bartender established himself as a legit closer in 2012, with 29 saves in 34 opportunities after taking over in May for Brandon League. He has two superb pitches, his heater and hammer-curve, which make him a perfect late game out-getter. Plus, he has an astounding four more years of club control, which makes him easy to move. The only reason he's this far down on this list is because he's a reliever, and the Mariners have two other relievers with more trade upside.
For those readers who don't know, its really easy to find decent relievers from the scrap heap. Look at Oliver Perez, Josh Kinney and Wilhelmsen. He is one of the people who could actually get moved mid-season and actually get us something interesting, like more than Luke "Secretly loves Rebecca Black" French and Mauricio "I prefer Burger King to McDonald's" Robles

10. Stephen Pryor
9. Carter Capps

These two will be linked by Mariners followers because of the proximity of their big league call-ups in 2012 and their abilities to throw 100 MPH gas (And baseballs). Both are under club control for another half-decade, and they both showed MLB talent in limited action last season. Pryor became the defacto set-up man for the M's later in the year, and Capps showed huge upside in middle relief. The Mariners won't trade these guys, since they view them both as potential future closers.
All we need now is for my brother to buy both their jerseys and they'll be here for good, right?

8. Nick Franklin

Is this a little low for the Mariners' top hitting prospect? Probably. But there is too much mystery surrounding Franklin for him to be higher. Will he make it to the majors this season? What position does he play best, short, second, or somewhere else? Can he improve upon his .243 in AAA last year and be a solid, top-of-the-order MLB hitter? Too many questions. He would be a nice piece in a Billy Butler trade however.
Yes, this is low for a switch-hitting middle infielder with power who is only 21 and played last year in AAA. And that's one drink.

7. Dustin Ackley

Ackley and Franklin are pretty similar, with Dustin being Nick's major league equivalent. Ackley shined in his rookie year, hitting .276 in half a season. It seemed natural that he would improve into a legit .300 hitter at the top of the lineup. Then he hit .226. So, at this point, nobody really knows what Ackley will become at the major league level. He was considered untouchable a year ago, but now, he might make an intriguing trade piece at the Winter Meetings.
Nobody really knows where he will play at the major league level either. And since he survived the sophomore slump, he will be fine. Also, what happens at the winter meetings? Do the GM's and team executives talk all day? Seems pretty dull to me.

6. James Paxton

I wanted to group the big three together, but that really doesn't make sense, especially since Paxton struggled with injuries (Injury) in 2012. He has always been considered the least of the group of elite pitching prospects which also includes Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker. Paxton went 9-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 21 starts last season in AA Jackson. He threw about five innings per start, which means he's not as MLB ready as some teams (the Royals apparently) think. Still, he could probably be the centerpiece of a big deal for a guy like Billy Butler. I want Billy Butler. Can you tell?
No, I had no idea. Your parents must love shopping for you for Christmas. Also, I don't see the Royals getting Paxton or any of our guys. They want MLB ready pitching, not prospects. So no Billy Butler, sorry Patrick. Here's a cute picture of him to remember him by as you drink a second time.

 

5. Kyle Seager

One year ago, Seager being on this list would have been crazy. It's hard to remember, but in April, the Mariners thought Seager would back up Chone Figgins at third in 2012. He then went on to lead the team offensively, hitting .259 with 20 homers and 86 RBI. His 86 RBI ranked third among MLB third basemen, behind Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre. So Seager is possibly the Mariners' most valuable organizational hitter. I don't think he is, but you could certainly make that case, and Seager could draw some top players in a trade.
Hmmmm.... I never thought I would see the day that Seager is mentioned in the same list as Beltre and Cabrera, except at a chicken wings eating contest. I would put money on Beltre to win that, he is more aerodynamic than Cabrera.

4. Danny Hultzen

Hultzen could probably pitch in Seattle in April. He could headline a trade for a top major league bat. But what is his upside? He went 8-3 with a 1.19 ERA in the season's first half in Jackson. Maybe that's his upside? Then he went 1-4 with a 5.92 ERA in Tacoma. That's not his upside. Hopefully, the Tacoma stint was just a sign of fatigue for Hultzen. He was only drafted about a year and a half ago. A lot of people forget that. Other organizations still salivate over him, and so I could almost see him getting swapped one-for-one for a great prospect hitter like Will Myers if that's what Jack Z wanted to do.
Nope, nope, nope. Wil Meyers will not be swapped one for one for Hultzen. Maybe Walker and a toss in, like Mauricio "I prefer Crystal Geyser bottled water" Robles. I don't know if many teams salivate over players, unless they have cannibalistic tendencies like the San Diego Padres, but that was in the 80's and everyone was a little weird then.

3. Taijuan Walker

The Mariners view Walker as the next Felix. We heard so much about Hultzen last year, people overlook the fact that Tai had a terrible year in Jackson. He went 7-10 with a 4.69 ERA. Not exactly ace material. But the hype still exists within and outside the organization, and he's only 20. That's his biggest asset. He's still really young. He's a year away from the majors most likely, and that's why he doesn't rank as the ace on this list.
I will throw this out there, he threw more innings than he has in his entire life this year so fatigue probably is an issue. However, he could be moved if the M's do their usual surprise everyone thing, and what we would get would be glorious. Let's just hope that if he goes to the Padres, they stay strong and don't get tempted like they did with Jake Peavy.

2. Jesus Montero

The former top prospect in the Yankees organization has diminished in value for two reasons. One, he can't play catcher according to everyone who matters (So everyone but Miguel Olivo and Mauricio "I think fire alarms are fun" Robles). So he'll be a career DH unless he learns to play first base. Learn to play first, Jesus. Secondly, he was underwhelming last year. He hit .260 with 15 homers and 62 RBI. Not great, but pretty typical Mariners numbers. This year will be big in determining his future success as far as opposing GMs are concerned. For now, he could easily be swapped one-for-one for Billy Butler (Drink) and both teams would be satisfied. I do not endorse this trade however.
Stop thinking about Billy Butler! He is way too hot for us right now, we are the nerdy kid in high school right now who will get rich after college. Billy Butler is the super hot girl in high school. Way out of our league. And for Montero's first season in the MLB in the wilds of Safeco, he wasn't too bad. Just learn to play first Jesus, I'll teach you. First lesson, put foot on base and then catch the ball. 

1. Felix Hernandez

The King is the only Mariners player that could draw one or more top prospect back on his own. He was top five in the Cy Young this year, and threw a perfect game, which, fun fact, only 22 other pitchers have done (But Phil Humber is on that list). But Jack Z has said he's not going anywhere. Fine by me. All hail the King.
Would it be funny if someone tried a coup this year. Like if Erasmo Ramirez starting wearing a "Impeach the King" shirt around? Or if Carter Capps hung a sign in the bullpen that said "Viva la Revolucion!" I don't know about his pitching but Felix's fiscal policies have failed and don't get me started on his foreign policy decisions. If you can't tell, I am not worried about Felix getting traded.
We'll continue to update these rankings if one or more of these players gets moved.

A Brief Rundown on the Offseason

By: Anthony

Offseason Rundown: Mariners Rumors and Speculation Galore

            If you haven’t been paying attention to the off-season, not much has happened. Psyche! The Marlins traded almost their entire team to the Blue Jays, who then followed that up by signing Melky Cabrera. The Jays also have a manager now in Jay Gibbons and they are the new sexy pick to win the AL East, like the Marlins were last year. The Melky signing hurts the Mariners more but for 2 years and 16 million, I am not upset about it. Melky only made sense to me at a one-year deal because of the PED issues and general inconsistency in his career.

            Now the obligatory note about Josh Hamilton. (We will delve into this issue in much more depth soon.) Of course the Mariners have been linked to him, as well as the Orioles, Phillies, Red Sox and Braves. His asking price has been rumored at 175 million. I don’t like many players at 175 million, let alone aging sluggers with injury and drug problems. So there’s that.

            There has been no news on the Nick Swisher front, but in other former AL East corner outfielder news Cody Ross is available. Since the Mariners need offense and corner outfielders, Ross’ name was bound to come up. He is similar to Swisher but is not a switch hitter and has been less consistent throughout his career. If we cannot sign Swisher, Ross is a solid consolation prize.

              "What is this place they call 'Seattle'"

             A rumor I heard the other day that intrigues me but is only a rumor revolves around Billy Butler. The Royals first baseman is a stud and would bring a good approach, power and would hold down first base for awhile. His price would be quite high, probably one of the big three and another B level prospect like Stefan Romero, Brad Miller or Francisco Martinez, or Brandon Maurer, Nick Franklin and a low level prospect. I am quite high on Butler but it will take a lot to pry him away from the Royals.

            Speaking of Nick Franklin, the M’s got an insurance policy against him in Robert Andino. They traded away Trayvon Robinson for the utility infielder who should compete with Franklin as the backup middle infielder or will take that role should Franklin be traded away. Andino is a light hitting backup, essentially Muenori Kawasaki minus the awesomeness. Robinson didn’t really have a spot on the team this year with a free agent filling in one spot in the outfield and Wells/Carp/Peguero/Someone else filling in the other. He is not a big loss unless you are my father who loved him for some reason.

             

I for one will miss this beautiful man 

             In 40-man roster moves, Chone Figgins and Scott Cousins were designated for assignment, meaning we have 10 days to cut, trade or send them to the minors. A moment of silence please for the illustrious career of Scott Cousins. Added to the 40-man were Brandon Maurer, Vinnie “The Old Prospector” Catricala, Bobby “The Levitating Zucchini” LaFromboise, Julio Morban and Anthony Fernandez.  

            Whoever the Mariners pursue and eventually sign, there will be a target on their backs. If we get another Figgins-esque performance it does not bode well for Jack Z or Howard Lincoln. That being said, I don’t think that they will make that mistake again. For one, it is really hard for someone to be as bad as Figgins was, but the front office will take their time and won’t make a risky decision in case it does blow up on them.

The Arizona Fall League Update: The Golden Saguaro

By: Anthony

               The AFL Championship Game occurred this past weekend and the Peoria Javelinas triumphed, winning the coveted Golden Saguaro. Ok, I don’t actually know what the trophy is called but it should be called the Golden Saguaro. As a far reaching and comprehensive blog, we of course had a few sources watching the game in Arizona. Much more importantly than the Golden Saguaro is how the Mariners’ prospects did in the AFL and what that means for them going forward. And since I can’t write an article without doing something that makes Patrick throw his arms up in frustration, I made up my own nicknames for each player.

The Javelinas gathered around the Golden Saguaro (Photo Credit Aubrey Davis)

Nick “Flapjack” Franklin

Frankin needed to show he could hit in Arizona if he wanted to make a serious case for playing time in the MLB next year. He did just that, posting a .338 batting average and an OPS of .942. He did struggle from the right side of the plate, which could prompt an abandonment of his switch hitting. When I talked about Flapjack in an earlier post, I mentioned his strike out problems as a major problem, along with his defense. In Arizona he played second base, with no reported problems. Meaning the log jam at second base is still a looming threat. His K rate in Arizona was 19.4% but his walk rate was 15.5%, a trade off that I will accept. He should get a shot at backing up Ryan and Ackley in the middle infield.

 "Help me Aslan"

Mike “The Chronicles of Narnia” Zunino

The future backstop of the franchise went down to Arizona to get more reps after his brief season in Everett and Jackson. While he couldn’t keep up his ridiculous numbers from Everett, he still hit at a decent clip posting a .288 average and an OPS of .800. His strike out rate went up to 20% while his walk rate was 6%. That is not good and signals that he still needs some seasoning. His defense was also fairly shaky, something that is worrying after hearing good things about his defense in college. He is also dealing with a new staff that he didn't have much time to get used to so there is an excuse, but his defense is something to monitor going forward. He should start the year in Tacoma and could see time in Seattle about mid-season.

Stefan “The Wooly Mammoth” Romero

Romero only saw limited action, playing in 11 games versus 19 and 20 for Franklin and Zunino respectively. However, he did put up solid numbers and is listed at 3B for the Javelinas. Romero hit .333 with an OPS of .886 but his K rate was 22%, a number that spiked up from his 17% K rate in Jackson and 13.5% in High Desert. I will attribute the K’s in Arizona to a small sample size. All Romero has to do now is find a position he can play at the MLB level and he should be fine. I see him starting in Tacoma and hopefully getting somevtime in Seattle in September. He could get some reps in the corner outfield since that is the only position on the Mariners where playing time would be available.

"There's gold in those hills! Gold!"

Vinnie “Old Prospector” Catricala

Quite simply, 2012 was a throw away year for Catricala. Coming off a 2011 where he won Hitter of the Year in the M’s system, the expectations were high and he did not meet them. He was just awful in Tacoma. He came to Arizona to try to turn things around and started off on the wrong foot. However, he turned things around to end with a respectable .279 average and .741 OPS. He absolutely needs a good spring to be considered for the team but he will probably end up doing another year in Tacoma and is in the same boat as Romero with trying to learn the corner outfield.

James “Sushi Chef” Paxton

Paxton was in Arizona to get more reps after a knee injury cost him a month in Jackson. He had some starts where he looked ready to make the next step to the MLB (3 innings, 5 K's, twice) and others where he struggled greatly. His command still appears to be shaky and needs to improve for him to succeed. He may have fatigued toward the end after putting up some very good numbers to start the year and was shut down early after he reached his innings limit. Paxton will start the year in Tacoma and, like Danny Hultzen, will need to dominate there to make it to the MLB.

Carson “Big Bird” Smith

 I did not know who Carson Smith was before the AFL started. I now know that he went to Texas State University.  He is also a pretty talented reliever. Not quite in the mold of Capps or Pryor but he throws a low 90’s sinker that gets a lot of ground balls and a lot of K’s. Both really good things. He struck out over a guy an inning in Arizona and had an ERA of 2.40. He should start the year in Jackson but should move up to Tacoma mid season.

Logan “Nacho Cheese” Bawcom

Bawcom was acquired for Brandon League and was lights out for Jackson as a reliever, despite some command issues. While he was not as good for the Javelinas as he was for the Generals, he was not awful and showed better command. His ERA of 5.27 is inflated by a few poor outings and his 11 K’s in 13 innings bodes well for his future. Bawcom should start the year again in Jackson.

 The Zucchini prepares to levitate mid-pitch

Bobby “The Levitating Zucchini” LaFramboise

LaFromboise profiled as a lefty matchup guy in the George Sherrill/ Arthur Rhodes role but has stepped up his stuff and looks to be a big piece in the future bullpen. He was auditioning for a big league spot next year. Like Bawcom, he didn’t dazzle like he did in Tacoma. But his 5.44 ERA isn’t as bad when you look at his 17 K’s in 13.0 innings and only 4 walks. I would like to see him in a bullpen that is looking very young right now.

Seon Gi Kim also played for the Javelinas but only made a few appearances and they were pretty awful so I don’t really want to talk about him. That is it from the AFL and there were absolutely some positives to take from the Golden Saguaro winning team. Go Javelinas.

Break up the Big Three? And to the Royals?

By Patrick

Winter is coming. By winter, I mean three really good pitchers

In 2014-ish, the Mariners should have one of the most formidable young rotations in baseball, with an extended Felix Hernandez joined by any number of four young pitchers who have proven themselves to be studs at the minor league level. The three superstars of the Mariners' system are Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton, affectionately referred to as the Big Three. They're basically LeBron, Wade, and Bosh, except they play baseball, haven't won a championship, and haven't played at the major league level yet. However, all that should change in 2013, when all three will likely make their debuts in Seattle. Hultzen may break camp with the team, whereas Walker and Paxton will likely start in AAA.

All of this means that the future is getting closer by the second. The Mariners window for future success is almost open. And at least at this point, the offense doesn't appear ready to seize that opportunity when it comes. However, the Mariners could drastically bolster their offense by trading young pitching for young hitting, much like they did when they acquired Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda last January. In theory, if a move like that were to occur, the M's would have to throw in one of the Big Three to get maximum value out of such a deal. The question, should they?

According to Geoff Baker and Buster Olney in a compiled report on MLBTradeRumors.com, the Royals have actively been scouting Paxton in the Arizona Fall League. For those who don't remember the eight games between the Mariners and Royals in 2012, the Royals cannot pitch for shit. In two four-games series in July, the M's scored 52 runs. Jesus Montero hit like .600. The Mariners beat Bruce Chen. THE MARINERS BEAT BRUCE CHEN! The Royals, by extension, need pitching, and not just rent-a-pitching, but young, talented pitching that can contribute for years to come.

The Mariners have a similar need, except that theirs is on the hitting side. The Mariners need some young, talented hitting that will actually contribute (Justin Smoak doesn't count) for years to come. Ironically, the Royals have a surplus in this area. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon and to a certain extent, Billy Butler fit the Mariners area of need quite well.

Of those four, Alex Gordon stands out as a perfect candidate for the Mariners to trade for. Gordon has hit .303 and .294 the last two seasons while missing a grand total of 12 games. He missed one game last season. He's also a gap power left fielder who can run fairly well.

In case you don't understand part of the reason this blog is named Way Out In Left Field, the Mariners have only had two players in franchise history log 150 games in left field in one season. The only good left fielder the Mariners have ever had was Raul Ibanez. That's it and that's all. A player like Gordon could change that.

But is the likely price of Paxton and another much younger prospect worth the move for the Mariners? Maybe. Paxton is certainly the "Chris Bosh" of the super threesome, having struggled with some injuries and ultimately projected as the "worst" of the Big Three. Would just two super awesome young pitchers be enough for the Mariners to work with?

As tempting as Gordon and his fellow teammates are on paper, the Mariners have to hold on to their entire core of young pitching. If the Royals would except Erasmo Ramirez in place of Paxton, then maybe Jack Z pulls the trigger. However, the motto in all four of Jack Z's years with the organization has been building from within and eventually winning with that talent. Young hitters like Mike Zunino, Stefan Romero and Nick Franklin offer hope that with additions of quality veteran free agents, the Mariners can win without having to deal the deep pitching that will take them to the next level.

As the San Francisco Giants are showing in the World Series right now, pitching depth is huge once the playoffs begin. The Giants have four quality starters, and a fifth with two Cy Youngs on his resume that bridges the gap from starters to shut down relievers. The Mariners will have all of those by 2014. For now, they need young hitters to continue to progress to get them to the playoffs. What they can't afford to do is deal one of the Big Three and risk losing out on an incredible talent for the seasons in their window of opportunity. As tempting as Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas are, Tai Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton are ours, and you can't have them. Go Mariners.

2012 was a success only if 2013 is better

By Patrick

2010 was a simpler time. Also, Carlos Silva and Ryan Langerhans.

Now that I've had about three weeks to separate myself from the Mariners 75-win 2012 campaign, it's about time I sit back and reflect on what took place and what it means for the franchise's future.

The Mariners embarked up their 35th season in franchise history with little hope of contending, and early on in the year, the team dashed what small hopes they had. By the end of June, the team was 12 games under .500, and not a threat to contend. Chone Figgins went from opening day starter to situation pinch runner. Felix Hernandez struggled, and Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan still looked like AAA pitchers. The offense hit well on the road, but went ice cold at home in the thick, marine air.

However, things changed in July, about a week or so after the all-star break. In a month where the Mariners had dropped a franchise record 17 straight games just a year before, the team surged. The Mariners embarked on a stretch of a little over a month where they had multiple seven-game winning streaks, won 15 out of 16 at home, and nearly clawed back to .500. Jason Vargas was AL pitcher of the month in July and following his perfect game, Felix Hernandez won the same award in August. The M's played five games over .500 in the two months. Jesus Montero, Kyle Seager, Michael Saunders and the boys started to swing the bats, and fans got a glimpse of what a successful, young baseball team  looks like. Ironically, this all happened after the Mariners traded away the face of the franchise, Ichiro, to the Yankees for two prospects who may never see the majors.

In September, the team came back to earth, going 11-18 after September 1. The young team became discouraged with losing once again, and the contenders in the division that had a real chance at a playoff spot fought for it and took it from the M's. Incredibly, Justin Smoak hit the crap out of the ball in the season's final month, rescuing a doomed .185 average and raising it 30 points. The M's finished with eight double-digit home run hitters for the first time in a decade, and Seager posted a respectable .259/20/86 season in the triple crown categories. Felix limped to the finish, knocking himself out of Cy Young contention with four horrible starts in the season's final month. The Mariners finished 75-87, winning eight more games than in 2011, the first year of the Eric Wedge era.

Overall, the 2012 season was a step in the right direction for the Mariners. The young players like Seager, Saunders, Montero, Smoak and Ackley got another season under their belts, and regardless of how shitty it might have been for some of them, they at least got to see a full season of major league pitching. John Jaso was an absolute delight, leading the team in batting after coming from the Rays in exchange for everybody's friendly neighborhood sodomist, Josh Lueke. Vargas had the best season of his career, Felix threw perfect game and nearly won his second Cy Young, Hisashi Iwakuma shined as a starter in the second half, and even Blake Beavan went 11-11 (that's real. check it.). The team found out that Brandon League couldn't close and Tom Wilhelmsen and his nasty hammer curve could. They also debuted young bullpen arms like Carter Capps, Stephen Pryor, and Lucas Luetge, who all appear to have bright futures with the franchise.

The Mariners also found out a few things the hard way. Chone Figgins helped the Mariners realize he's not a major league baseball player any more. The entire offense helped the Mariners to see that the fences need to come in if home runs are to be a part of April and May baseball at Safeco. Miguel Olivo reminded the franchise that he's, well, Miguel Olivo, and .222/12/29 is what he's been doing his entire career. Carlos Peguero, Luis Jimenez, and Alex Liddi reminded the franchise why they've been in AAA for so long. Mike Carp made the organization forget about last August by being hurt all year and sucking when he seemed healthy. Hector Noesi absolutely tanked all year, and doesn't look like a major league starter. Kevin Millwood somehow made it through the season at 6-12, even though he came out of about five games with injuries and had almost zero upside at 37 years old.

The question then becomes, where do the Mariners go from here? 75 wins is only acceptable if it becomes a number in the 80's the next season. The team needs to keep improving. Sure, the youngsters will get better as they approach their primes, but for 2013, just relying on Seager, Ackley, and Montero to kick it up a notch won't be good enough. The team needs to pursue quality, veteran free agents that will bring a culture of winning back to Seattle, and eventually put some more butts in the Safeco Field seats, which were filled about half as much in 2012 as they were in 2002.

The Mariners can win 80 games in 2013, but only if they show a strong commitment to continue this upward trend of wins from within and outside of the organization. That requires everyone involved, from the players to the manager to the GM all the way up to Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln, to give their best effort to make this team into a winner. Frankly, I don't know if that's going to happen. But if it does, some great things could happen in Seattle in 2013. Go M's.

Here are my 2012 season awards:

MVP: Felix

Pitcher of the year: Felix

Hitter of the year: Seager

Reliever of the year: Wilhelmsen

Rookie of the year: Iwakuma

Captain Clutch: Jaso

Most Inspirational: Munenori Kawasaki

LVP (L is for least): Figgins

Worst Pitcher: Noesi

Worst Hitter: Figgins

Worst Reliever: Steve Delabar

Least Inspirational: Figgins

Projecting the 2013 Lineup:

By: Anthony

Once again Patrick and I have dropped the ball on providing consistent content. I have been on a beard quest in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and Patrick has, well, been busy. He has already projected the 2013 rotation and I will now take on the more daunting task of projecting the 2013 starting lineup. Note: I will be incorrectly assuming that the Mariners take the same position players they had this year into next year because of the infinite possibilities of signings and trade Jack Z could make. If you want to read my offseason plan for the Mariners, here it is.

Jaso

Smoak

Ackley

Ryan

Seager

Wells

Gutierrez

Saunders

Montero

Carp

Franklin

Robinson

Catricala

The definition of a successful beard quest

Catcher

John Jaso should start, plain and simple. He was one of our best hitters last year with an OPS of .850. He also made a successful beard quest mid-season and was only marginally below average on throwing out base runners with a caught stealing of 20% versus the league average of 26%. Mike Zunino will not be ready to break camp with the team. We do not need to sign a veteran scrap heap guy to break camp with the team. We will for depth purposes so he can sit in AAA and be ready to play if Jaso gets hurt. Our backup will be- drum roll please- Jesus Montero. I understand why people don’t want him to catch, it is not where he will play in the future. But how much damage can another half-season of backing up Jaso until Zunino is ready do? He wasn’t a disaster defensively and we need to get his bat in the lineup as much as possible.

First Base

I really hate Justin Smoak but of course there is nobody in the system right now who can push him for a regular starting spot. It will be a battle between him and Carp for first and Smoak will get more plate appearances because of his September. The team will stick with Smoak until he once again reveals his ineptitude in months that don’t rhyme with Feptember. To fill in his place, Carp and Montero can split reps. Yes, the timing of this will be weird. But once Zunino is called up and displaces Montero from backing up Jaso, Montero will switch to backing up Carp at first base and getting most of his reps at DH.

Second Base

Dustin Ackley will once again get his playing time. We must hope that the most advanced bat in the draft will figure out how to hit and not become a defense first second basemen. Backing him up will be tough to figure out with Nick Franklin knocking on the door in the AFL. With a good spring, Franklin will  fill in at both shortstop and second.

I guess he is kind of good at defense

Short Stop

Brendan Ryan. Is anyone here surprised? He can hit .230 and be an above average player because of his defense. Enough on him and Franklin backs him up.

Third Base-

Kyle Seager should not be a surprise and Chone Figgins should leave. So in the backup role we have Vinnie Catricala. This is what I would call a “power move.” Not in the way that Catricala has tons of power, but after struggling in AAA Tacoma last year he lost much of his prospect shine. He will turn it around and backup Seager and also get some time at first to introduce him to the big leagues.

Pray to any and all deities that he stays healthy

Outfield

Saunders, Wells, Robinson and Gutierrez. I include four people here because of the almost guarantee the Guti gets hurt. Right now Wells, Saunders and Guti will start and Robinson can back them up/ be ready to play once Guti suffers a freak injury that nobody saw coming. Carp can also play left to split time with Robinson post-Guti injury.

This roster will win roughly 75 wins. Almost the exact same as last year, which is the reason why some moves will have to be made and some guys cut loose. But it is good to know that we have enough organizational depth to fill in with talent and let some young guys get their feet wet.

Justin Smoak and Socrates: What they have in common.

By: Anthony

Now that the season is over and the Mariners ended up with a respectable 75 wins, we can now start to project the roster for 2013, an awesome exercise in speculation. One of the biggest questions is of course the hole at first base. I talked about this briefly in both my “What the Future Holds” and “Offseason Free Agent Targets” articles but that was before Justin Smoak looked at a calendar. Going back a step or two, I will explain the title of this article.

             

"How dare you compare me to Justin Smoak!"

Socrates is one of the most famous philosophers in history and was executed by the Greeks for corrupting the youth and impiety. Smoak may have corrupted many young people with his horrible hitting and general suckiness but this isn’t ancient Greece, otherwise Chone Figgins would have already had a hemlock smoothie. Socrates was known as a gadfly, a bug that is really annoying and doesn’t like to go away. A gadfly keeps buzzing around and annoying people. That’s why Justin Smoak is like Socrates, he is a gadfly!

Not only is Justin Smoak bad, but he has a great habit of being really good in September and just god awful for the other 7/8ths of a season. Don’t believe me? Think Justin Smoak is more of a dung beetle (Get it, it’s because he is bad)? I give you the data.

September/ October Stats

Year	Average	OPS	Home Runs	Strikeouts/ BB
2010	.340	1.001	3	11/7
2011	.301	.793	3	20/5
2012	.341	1.005	5	13/13

April- August Stats

Year	Average	OPS	Home Runs	Strikeouts/ BB
2010	.198	.624	10	80/39
2011	.220	.704	12	85/50
2012	.190	.575	14	98/36

The numbers do not lie. Justin Smoak either thinks that Spring Training continues through August or he secretly hibernates April through August. Personally I don’t know which is more feasible, I guess I would take hibernation due to his bear-like appearance.

Half-man, Half-Bear, Half-Gadfly

The affect that his September stats have on reporters, bloggers and fans is that he may have figured it out. Either he finally got healthy or he made a swing alteration or something changed and Smoak is finally living up to the talent level that saw him exchanged for Cliff Lee. I am still very dubious about this year. Smoak has shown a pattern in his hitting and until he proves he can hit April through August, I think he is a bust and should not spend too much more time in Seattle.

            There is good news however for Mariner fans and Smoak. He still has another option year! Huzzah! This means that he can be sent down to Tacoma and not have to clear waivers. So, say in some bizarre world Smoak sucks again at the start of next year (I am willing to accept bets that this happens). The M’s can option him down to Tacoma and let him try to figure it out for a while, free from worry that some team would claim him on waivers (I’m sure Jack Z has nightmares about that).

            Something that Smoak has struggled with is his confidence and many people close to the team have said that Smoak is finally feeling comfortable hitting and the results are starting to show. They are also saying the adjustments he made to his swing in the short time in Tacoma are starting to bear fruit. They are also saying his pregame routine of praying to the shrine of Foghorn Leghorn in his locker has been altered to include both Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck seems to finally be working. Guess what? Some of those things may be true, but it really doesn’t matter. He has shown this before and I will only be convinced he has become a competent Major League player when he hits the ball well from April to August.

            He will benefit from the fences being moved in, like most hitters. And Smoak will get a shot next year at first base, competing with Mike Carp and hopefully Jesus Montero. Carp failed to impress this year, battling injuries most of the year and Montero needs to learn the correct way for a human to run. This year was supposed to be a make or break year for Smoak, but somehow he gets another shot. If this team wants to medal in the AL West next year (a respectable feat these days), Smoak needs to figure out how to hit the ball consistently like he always does in September, or he can just be a gadfly again and annoy people.

What the Future Holds: Third Base

By: Anthony

If you haven’t read my first two pieces on first base and the middle infield, here they are.

Middle Infield

First Base

The hot corner is a feast or famine position. Meaning that teams either have a very good third baseman or a guy who can play there but is a hole in the lineup. For instance, Evan Longoria, David Wright and Adrian Beltre all play 3B for a contender. Know who else plays 3B in the MLB? Joaquin Arias, Brandon Inge and Jordan Pacheco. So the drop off is pretty steep from star to Chone Figgins. But seriously, I will not mention Chone again in this column. I will put 100:1 odds on Chone playing for Seattle next year. You may email me at terriblebets@gmail.com (all emails sent here will not be answered since it is a fake email address).

You're going to talk about me right?

 The Mariners are actually doing awesome here. Understand by awesome I mean that there is a young player who is performing at third base and minor leaguers who are not. Kyle Seager was supposed to be a middle infielder/ utility player. So basically Muenori Kawasaki without the dance moves. But then he shows up this year and takes over our offense, (At least away from Safeco). I could talk about how much I enjoy watching Seager hit, or I could make more Chone Figgins jokes. I’ll let you, the reader, decide. Go ahead, think about it. I’ll wait. (Pondering the life cycle of a western Red Wood tree). Sorry I have been in college this week, so I have been getting super intellectual. Anyway, my favorite Chone Figgins fun facts.

1.     His name is actually Desmond, not Chone for all those confused

2.     He was acquired by the Angels in a trade for Kimera Bartee

3.     He was born in Leary, Georgia

4.     He will not play for the Seattle Mariners next year

Clearly those weren’t in order since Leary, Georgia was mentioned third on that list. But Chone is terrible and according to my sources and instincts, Jack Z resents ever signing him (Seriously, both played a role in that opinion).

Super Stud            

This how much I’ll talk about Kyle Seager. He should and must stay at 3B. He has been solid defensively and has been one of our best hitters. He may be better defensively at 2B, but we already have numerous guys who could play there in the next five years, and we don’t need another one of those players. Our talent pool in the middle infield is much better than at third and Seager has been a bright spot in a relatively uninteresting year.

            So what exactly do we have in our minor league system at 3B? We have Alex Liddi, who I do not think will be able to hang in the MLB, especially with his current K rate. We have Vinnie Catricala, who was the most valuable hitter in the Mariners system last year. Francisco Martinez was hanging around in Jackson and Steven Proscia was basking in the glory of High Desert.

             
Alex Liddi is the first Italian-born player to play in the major leagues. Yay for fun facts! He also hit grand slams in back-to-back games a few years ago in Spring Training. Yay for fun facts! He has a K rate of 38% in 170 major league at-bats. That’s not very fun. And that is why I do not think Alex Liddi will stick with the Mariners. But something I do like from Liddi is that he is only 24 right now and still has a year or so to figure it out. He needs to cut down on his K’s drastically and has to work on getting on base more. His OBP is .278 right now, a pretty mediocre batting average. Liddi certainly has power, his .458 slugging in Tacoma shows that but like most young power hitters he has to drop his K rate to stay on the roster. I think Liddi starts off the year in AAA unless he makes big strides this off-season.

            Vinnie Catricala had never hit below .300 in the Mariners system since he started in rookie ball in 2009. This led to him being lauded as a big prospect for the M’s, that and his OPS being over 1.000 in a 2011 year split between High Desert and Jackson. He was put on the Rainiers to start the year in 2012 and struggled. He hit .229 and had an OPS of .640 in 507 at-bats. It was weird to see him struggle for a few reasons, one of them being that he had not struggled before. Another being that his K rate and BB rate were right about where they had been before in his career. Something I see is that his batting-average-on-balls-in-play dropped about .100 points. Unfortunately there is not very much data available to look at his fly ball and ground ball ratios that would help immensely in analyzing his BABIP. So for now I will just say that the Arizona Fall League will show whether this year was a random aberration of luck or whether Catricala needs another year in Tacoma. I think he will shine in the AFL but won’t make the M’s because of his limited defensive capabilities; he will probably have to shift to left field if he wants to see regular playing time.

            Francisco Martinez was acquired in the Doug Fister trade, one that is looking pretty bad for the M’s right now. Casper Wells is pretty meh and Chance Ruffin struggled in Tacoma. Martinez was supposed to be the best player acquired in that trade for us so hopefully he outperforms Ruffin and Wells. Martinez is a bit different of a 3B than normal. He is more of a speedy, average hitter versus a stocky power hitter that most third basemen are. He had 27 stolen bases this year for Jackson but only hit a pedestrian .227 with an OPS of .610. He also struck out 21% of the time. He clearly needs more seasoning before getting called up. I think he starts in Jackson and moves up when Catricala is called up to Seattle.

            I don’t know what it is about the ACC that the Mariners love, but Proscia is another product of University of Virginia (Joining Danny Hultzen and John Hicks) who saw some time in Jackson last year. He is more of a traditional third basemen in the big power mold. He spent most of his time this year in High Desert where he did what most people do in High Desert. He hit .330 with an OPS of .930 with a slugging percentage of .564. His K rate is still about 20% which is normal. Most power hitters sit around that but I would like to see him get that number around 15% before he gets to the higher levels. He should start the year in Jackson, splitting time with Martinez.

            Other names that you may want to know are Patrick Kivlehan and Jordy Lara. I have already talked about Kivlehan and his raw talent and power. Lara is not very important; he just won the best name for a third baseman in the Mariners system. There wasn’t much selection.

            Third base is a position of strength for the Mariners, mostly because of Kyle Seager. His break out season will have to be continued with Catricala and Martinez in the system but I do not see either of them replacing him next year. This is one position that is locked down, even when the M’s become contenders. It is one of the few for the team so we should enjoy it while we can.