Danny Hultzen: Live in Person

By Anthony

I have seen Danny Hultzen more than most people, or I would like to think that I have. I watched him pitch in the Arizona Fall League as well as in Spring Training. So the other night was my third time watching him and I noticed a few adjustments that Hultzen has made since college. 

The first thing that you should know about Hultzen is that he throws across his body, or what is also called “cross fire”. Normally, a line can be drawn from a pitchers back foot, through their front foot to home plate. Hultzen does not; his foot is off to the side as you can see in this picture.

This has a few positive things and a few negative things that come with it. First of all, it puts more strain on his hips and shoulder since they have to rotate further to face square to the plate. This can lead to him tiring earlier and starting to miss high and outside to right handed hitters. It also allows him to hide the ball for longer since it comes from a further angle than normal.

He also releases the ball in a lower arm slot than normal, at about 3/4ths. This means that he will not be able to throw as hard as someone who releases over the top but his ball tails much more than someone who releases over the top. As an ex-pitcher who both threw cross fire and a 3/4ths I know very much what I am talking about. And what I saw in person corroborated this. His fastball was very good and tailed quite a bit away from righties. It was fun to watch from behind home plate. But not much more was.

Hultzen has now made two starts in AAA. He has made is 9 innings in two starts. That is not good. From what I saw, Hultzen has not yet made the adjustment to AAA hitters. That is not surprising, it’s a level better than he was at and he has only made two starts. He seemed much different than what he was scouted to be, at least in this last start.

When we drafted Hultzen, he was supposed to be a control guy with a decent fastball and very good off speed stuff. What I saw was a pitcher with an excellent fastball and pretty poor command of his off-speed stuff. I don’t know if he just didn’t have a feel for his changeup that day or if it was in the scouting report of the Las Vegas 51’s but I didn’t see much of it. His slider/ curve also couldn’t find the zone but still generated some swing and misses. 

In the first innings, Hultzen was lights out. He struck out the first two hitters he faced, including Blue Jays prospect Anthony Gose on a nice slider that broke away from the plate and Gose had not chance to hit. However, that was the only good inning that Hultzen had. And he only threw one off-speed pitch out of 10. That was a sign of things to come. 

The second inning saw Hultzen lose control of everything. He struggled to find the plate after Travis Snider had a solid single through the right side. He sandwiched another strikeout between two walks before walking another Las Vegas hitter to score Snider. As my dad is very fond of saying, “Its all in your head.” Hultzen lost focus and was unable to locate anything but his fastball for awhile. Through three innings Hultzen had two strikes with pitches that weren’t his fastball. Both were sliders that were out of the zone. That is not very promising from someone who is supposed to have very good command. 

All in all, Hultzen seems to have made some mechanical adjustments from when I watched him pitch for Virginia. He stands slightly taller on the mound, which is good. He seems to have improved and once he is able to settle down and make his adjustments, he should be a nice addition to the rotation. However, for all those who want to see him in Seattle in August, I don’t think that will happen, barring injuries. He still needs time to mature and he will end the year in August sometime to protect his arm and then get his shot at the rotation in March. Patience Mariner fans, patience. 

The Mariners Junior: Anthony goes to Tacoma

By Anthony

Nick Franklin, future shortstop

There are some advantages to having an avid baseball fan for a father. One is missing a week of school every spring to go to Arizona and watch the Mariners. I believe the excuse was it was a family holiday; guess the teachers didn’t mind missing me for a week. The other is going to games and scoring them. For those who don’t know, scoring a game is usually recording each play on a chart so you have info from each game. My dad takes it to the extreme. Not only does he chart each play, but each pitch location and speed. So when we went to Tacoma to watch the phenom Danny Hultzen matchup against the ageless Jamie Moyer. So this is article one of two about my trip down I-5. I will write more about Danny Hultzen soon, but these are other things I noticed at Cheney Stadium in between 5 hot dogs. 

• Nick Franklin 
• At first site I was really confused, Franklin is tiny and looks like a stick figure. He isn’t quite built like a typical shortstop. 
• So I may be an idiot, but I did not realize Franklin was a switch hitter. I saw 5 at bats total and was quite impressed. I know significantly more about pitching than hitting but Franklin’s swing looked smooth and he seemed able to drive the ball the other way.
• He went 2-5 including a triple the other way off Jamie Moyer and a single the other way off a right handed reliever. He showed some nice speed and surprising power. He also flew out to the warning track in the seventh.
• Defensively I was not very impressed. Of course he was playing second base, not short, but he did not look smooth and his arm was not excellent. Not sure if he can stick at short or whether he has to move to second at Safeco. He also was slow getting the ball out of his glove on the few grounders hit his way and missed a scoop play at second. 
• Vinnie Catricala
• The third baseman of the future, or something like that, did not look excellent either. He also is awfully skinny. Could probably use a little meat on his bones with Franklin. Maybe they could eat Chone Figgins or something. I’m sure there’s a by-law that says you don’t have to pay a guy if he is eaten by teammates.
• Offensively, Catricala did not look anything special. Hitting seventh in the Rainiers order, he flew out to center 3 times and reached on a fielders choice. I would love for Catricala to turn it around but he has struggled in Tacoma this year. 
• Luis Jimenez
• I started laughing when I saw the Rainiers clean up hitter swinging in the on-deck circle. He is listed at 280 on the Tacoma website and that would be pretty accurate. 
• He is hitting the cover off the ball though. .325 with 13 home runs and 51 RBI’s. He took Jamie deep to left-center on the first pitch he saw and showed some discipline at the plate. 
• I would suggest we call him up, its not like our offense can get much worse, but he is only a DH so would take away at-bats from Carp, Montero and Jaso. Ugh…..
• Josh Kinney
• If you haven’t heard of him before I forgive you. He is a veteran reliever and actually has a ring from the 06 Cardinals team.
• His stuff is actually quite good. He has a fastball in the low 90’s that has some late movement. A good changeup that sits in the low 80’s as well as a breaking ball that isn’t as good as his other two pitches but is a nice show me pitch. If he didn’t start arguing with the field umps he would have had a nice inning but had to pitch out of a jam and showed some nice composure
• I wouldn’t mind seeing him in Seattle down the road, but some room would have to be made on the 40-man which causes some problems. 
• Jamie Moyer
• I have had the pleasure of being coached by the wily veteran so it was nice to hear him get a standing ovation on his way in from the bullpen. 
• If you haven’t heard, Jamie has been bouncing around a few teams this year trying to break back into the majors, this is his third team all year after making the Rockies and then being cut and signing with the Orioles.
• He did a pretty good job and brought back some fond memories of classic Jamie Moyer. He made Carlos Triunfel look ridiculous twice with some low 70 heat and actually hit 84 once. 
• I am hoping Jamie finds a team this year and was happy to see him get the win.

The game itself wasn’t interesting, the Rainiers lost 11-4 and Triunfel had two back-to-back errors on the exact same play. Be thankful for Brendan Ryan’s defense. The pitching wasn’t great and featured way too many walks. But that’s AAA baseball for you.  

The Three Amigos: Once Again Ham-less

By Anthony

Well this turn through the Amigos was slightly better. Not really in wins and losses but at least in peripherals and lack of Kevin Millwood. Noesi did a nice job in the wilds of Petco and I learned I should watch an Erasmo Ramirez start at some point. In my defense, I was still on vacation and apparently MLB TV is blacked out in Hawaii so I was once again Mariner-less. Also, Hisashi Iwakuma showed up and was pretty decent. Then Yoenis Cespedes decided he didn’t care Iwakuma came all the way from the afterlife to pitch against him. Once again, I will point out that the Mariner offense is atrocious, like rotten eggs marinated in garbage atrocious. WAHHHH!!! I want a team that can hit. To the Amigos….

Hector Noesi

Well it seems like Hector was finally able to tell the difference between an 0-2 and 2-0 count. I’m happy to see that kind of progress. He was going against the Padres offense, who are supposedly worse than us but I don’t see how that’s possible. Anyway, Hector went 6 innings, gave up 2 runs, struck out 6 and walked 3. I don’t mean to point out the obvious here, but Hector seems to be able to dominate bad teams and sucks against good teams. This is really logical, but at least we can see that he has the stuff to beat some teams, just not most teams. Oh well, I guess it could be worse. Noesi threw a bunch of breaking balls. Like 24 sliders and 15 curves and got a bunch of whiffs. That is good news goldfish for Hector. He also was pretty inconsistent with his changeup, but with his improvement on his breaking pitches, it didn’t matter much. You get an A- since you got two hits. 

Erasmo Ramirez

Ummm… ok, raise your hand if you saw this coming. Patrick I know you didn’t so I’ll ignore your hand (Editor's note: my hand is still up). Alright, I don’t feel too bad about messing this one up. I was flying all day and didn’t even see the gamecast or anything about the game. Somehow Erasmo went 8 innings, got 10 K’s, gave up a solo home run and walked one. Ok, so I guess I have to try and figure out how he did that without having watched the game. Thank god for Pitch F/X. Based on what I see, Erasmo did one hell of a job with mixing up his pitches. I was unaware he could consistently hit 94 with his fastball which is awesome. His fastball was on point and that set up his change up excellently. He threw his changeup 28 times. The A’s whiffed on it 13 times. That is a percent of 46.4. That is ridiculous, especially for a guy who wasn’t known to have an excellent changeup. Go Erasmo! I will wait for Saturday to think of a nickname since you lose any tie to Blake Beavan when you get double digit K’s. Erasmo gets an A. Summer school worked for those two.

Kevin Millwood

Old Man Jenkins did not last very long. Looks like his groin is acting up again. Maybe there’s a storm coming or something. Anyway, for the 2 2/3 innings he gave up a homer and struck out 3. Pretty meh numbers from the old timer. What I really want to talk about is Hisashi iwakuma. After Wedge contacted the shaman to summon the spirit of HIsashi to the mound, I pretty much lost hope. The A’s aren’t very good but I felt like Iwakuma would not be very effective. Once again I was wrong. Besides a bad pitch to Cespedes, Iwakuma was very good. I know he doesn’t pitch much but I think we have reached the point where he should get a start. It’s not like he would be taking away a start from an all-star. Let Millwood take a start or two off and let Hisashi show us something. We are paying him enough and its not like one or two games will cost us the season at this point. #FreeIwakuma? Millwood gets an Incomplete, and this time it is kind of justified. Huzzah!

The Word

Cursed

I was tempted to tip my cap to the person controlling Guti’s voodoo doll, but then Felix did his thing to recapture his crown and so he will be getting a tip of the cap. But seriously, what is wrong with Franklin. He probably has the worst luck of any person in the league right now. He has a weird stomach bug one year, screws up his pectoral to start the year and now he is concussed. Stupid Adrian Gonzalez, learn to catch a ball! It’s not that hard. I can do it pretty regularly. Patrick can too. So Franklin, I apologize but I feel like you’re cursed. Good news is that the team shaman can probably do an exorcism or the team could put a priest on retainer. 

Tip of My Cap

Felix Hernandez

So remember how after I analyzed Hector Noesi, he started getting better? Well after I analyzed Felix, he goes off. In his past two starts, Felix has gone 16 innings, allowed one run and struck out 23 guys. Yeah one was against the Padres. But the best one was against the Red Sox. A team that is very good, despite their record. I was in Tacoma for the game so I was unable to watch it. However, I did watch the gamecast on my dads phone (I was using my own phone for tweeting) and it was much more interesting than some parts of the Tacoma game. Felix is back. He seemed dominant, he put up some crazy numbers and even David Ortiz said he was unhittable. Crown the King! He’s back….

Wag of My Elbow

The offense. This one is obvious. Our offense sucks. You know what is depressing? Losing twice to the Oakland A’s. Know what is worse? Scoring 3 runs the entire series. I know this is supposed to be a young team that has its ups and downs. But this down is really low. Like nearly Mariana’s Trench low. So the next high better be pretty sweet. Seriously though, Smoak, Ackley and Ichiro all need to step it up. This is not looking like a team that scored 21 runs in a game only a few months ago. This offense looks pathetic. Come on guys; play like we all know you can. 

Attendance Bump Part 1

By Patrick

Winning time

That's what Red Sox games are for the Mariners, one giant boost in asses in the seats. And in this weekend's case, a brutal home test that they need to pass to right the ship. The stadium may have more Sox fans than M's fans, so it will be important for the M's to play well, since losses will add on extra embarrassment. Felix, Noesi, Ramirez, and Vargas will go against Morales, Cook, Beckett, and Doubront. Why can't the Mariners win all four of these games? Because they'll find a way to lose of course!

June 28: Felix Hernandez (5-5, 3.36) vs. Franklin Morales (1-1, 3.12)

Odd pitching matchup here. On paper, huge advantage to Felix here. Morales isn't even a starter by trade, and so the M's will likely get to look at a number of different arms today. I would say they can punch on him, but four runs in four games doesn't really suggest that sort of ability. Felix could be in for another long night as far as run support goes, so he'll have to build on his success against the Padres last weekend and shut down the Sox tonight. The M's probably won't give him more than four runs, so Felix needs something in that 7-8 inning, 1-2 run, 7-9 strikeout range for the team to pull this one out. 

Players to watch:

Jesus Montero: Six months ago, Montero was the name that promised to put fear in the hearts of Red Sox fans for years to come. Nowadays, not so much. But Montero will still be a fearsome player in a few years, just not right now, and Boston don't have to worry about Seattle nearly as much as the Yankees. Jesus needs to get it rolling again with his power soon, so I think he will go deep tonight. Why not?

Daniel Nava: I had never heard of this guy before he started hitting really well about a month ago. As a rookie, Nava boasts a .315 average with 25 RBIs. Not bad at all. He doesn't bring much power to the equation, but his .433 OBP is filthy. And now he's leading off. Take notes, Ichiro.

Prediction:

M's 4, Red Sox 2: Felix, Felix, and more Felix. The King will provide his court with a lot to cheer about tonight. The Sox have a good young lineup, but Felix will be in top form. Nava might get on, but Felix will lock them up. Three run homer by Montero will be the difference. Go M's.

Thank God it's Oakland Part 2

By Patrick

Condor up!

Well, fuck. Erasmo Ramirez absolutely shined yesterday. I mean, the guy was stellar. Eight innings, one run, only THREE hits, and a whopping TEN strikeouts. Holy shit! What's going on here? Isn't he supposed to be the next Blake Beavan, Anthony? Told you so. 

So he got his first major league win right? Nope. Erasmo lost this game. He lost! The M's didn't score one measly run to back him up. That's called getting Fisted. Get you minds out of the gutter! It's called that since the Mariners did that to Doug Fister over and over again in 2012. Doug was 3-12 with an ERA in the threes. I guess Erasmo will just have to get used to this kind of fisting from here on out. OK, I'll stop.

June 26: Jason Vargas (7-7, 4.66) vs. Travis Blackley (1-2, 3.15)

Here's the deal. I've never heard of Travis Blackley before. But apparently I should know him. He was promoted after Freddy Garcia got shipped to the White Sox and made his major league debut for the Mariners in 2004. His coolest stat is having a AA record for wins in a season with 17 in 2003. He kind of sucked with the M's and then disappeared, only to hurt his shoulder and never play for the M's again.  Then he bounced around, left the MLB, and he's finally resurfaced in 2012 with the A's. He's also Australian, which means he likely has an awesome accent. His accent alone might be enough to baffle Mariners hitting tonight. Vargas on the other hand needs to get back on track after dropping his last three starts. This is a battle of lefties that should end up pretty even, since the Mariners' hitters hate lefties and Vargas loves Safeco.

Players to watch:

Michael Saunders: The Mariners really succeeded when Saunders had a .500 road trip. Maybe to kick start them again, they need Saunders to go off. Tonight could be a good time, since he's sneaky good against lefty pitchers as a lefty hitter. I look for Saunders to snap the M's scoreless streak by going deep in the second inning.  

Jonny Gomes: On one hand, Jonny Gomes sucks. He has a career .243 average, and is hovering around that in 2012. The one thing Gomes does really well is hit home runs. Ironically enough, Vargas has struggled with the long ball in 2012. See where I'm going here? Vargas needs to stay away from Gomes and make smart pitches to him, otherwise he'll put runs on the board in a hurry.

Prediction:

M's 5 A's 3: When will I ever learn? Never! Why would I ever pick the A's in an even pitching matchup? Because the M's haven't scored in 23 innings? Small formality. Vargas gets back on track tonight and Saunders leads the squad to victory. Go M's.

Thank God it's Oakland Part 1

By Patrick

The future

The Mariners evidently have no ability to beat the Padres without Felix being absolutely on his game. On the plus side, their pitchers can hit. Which is good, since the M's play in the National League. What? They don't? Well, fuck. Whatever. They still get to play Oakland, who they have smashed this season. 

The A's essentially consist of a below-average, patchwork rotation with a few decent young hitters and a good bullpen. The Mariners consist of a bunch of wildcards, and I'm beginning to think the opponent doesn't matter much. The A's in Safeco should be about as cushy as it gets for the Mariners though, and they desperately need to get back on track to salvage 2012.

June 25: Erasmo Ramirez (0-1, 5.40) vs. Tommy Milone (7-5, 4.13)

On one hand, Erasmo Ramirez has not impressed much in his first two starts or in his time in the bullpen. On the other hand, he presents a great option for the future rotation. I can do a similar comparison with Tommy Milone. On one hand, he's a promising young pitcher who has provided a bright spot in a tough season as far as Oakland starting pitching is concerned. On the other hand, he lost to the M's in his only start against them in 2012, and his 7.42 road ERA is baseball's third worst. Couple that with a .317 BAA on the road, and Erasmo may be well on his way to his first career win.

Players to Watch:

Franklin Gutierrez: It's so nice to finally be able to type this name again in a preview. Guti is an incredible fielder. So if he can hit .270, we'll be good. So far, he's hitting .290. Schwing! It's a small sample size, but Guti has succeeded so far, and the M's might have the number two hitter they've been actively looking for.

Brandon Inge: Inge with anyone else besides Detroit is weird. The Tigers cut him though, and so Billy Beane went in and swooped him up. How's he been doing? Not too great. .221/7/35 isn't great, but it's Inge numbers. He's a pretty ham sandwich kind of player. Perfect for Erasmo or Blake Beavan.

Prediction:

M's 5, A's 4: Yes, the Mariners haven't pitched well at all lately, but for the love of God, it's the A's! They suck, and they suck against the M's. The Mariners have no excuse for losing this one in front of the home fans. I have them winning a tight one. Go M's.

The Three Amigos: Summer School Edition

By Anthony

I don’t like to beat around the bush often. I find it wasteful and inefficient. I am also lazy so I find anything that is not necessary to the matter is bad because it requires unnecessary effort. Our starting pitching is pretty terrible right now. Everyone except for Felix is doing badly. And bad is a nice way to put it. This is the summer school edition because instead of grades, I will be assigning the amigos to a certain time they must spend in summer school to make up for their horrific grades this time around. Its like they got senioritis (A fully recognized disease where second-semester seniors in high school slack off heavily before they graduate to college), but it wasn’t their freshman year in college and not senior year in high school. To remedial classes!

Hector “I get confused between 0-2 and 2-0 counts” Noesi

When Patrick asked me how bad of a pitchers park Chase Field was, I had to look it up on ESPN. It didn’t stand out to me as a Coors Field (Rockies) or U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox). Man, I was wrong. Every game against the D-Backs was high scoring, which is nice, seeing as we have an anemic offense, but it was bad since we lost 2 of 3. Noesi did not do a very good job as a pitcher. He went 6 innings, gave up 5 earned (6 total), walked 2 and had 5 K’s. One of the more surprising stats was that he gave up 0 home runs. I guess that’s something positive? I don’t really know. He once again struggled in 0-2 counts. I honestly would like to see him just throw an 0-2 pitch behind the batter, just for fun. It is not like they will hit it. He threw a bunch of four seam fastballs this time, which is different than normal. He usually uses his two-seamer more. He also threw more curves than usual. His command wasn’t great, like usual. There’s not much else to say for Noesi. He got hit around, didn’t look incredible and got sent to summer school. In the words of Walter White from Breaking Bad, “Apply Your self!” Hector is in summer school for only a month, don’t worry, that’s relatively good for the other members of the rotation.

Erasmo “I am just as boring as a Ham Sandwich” Ramirez

I swear, the entire group of Amigos got together and decided the best way to make me unhappy looking at their stats. Noesi decided to suck in general and now Erasmo showed some awesome peripheral stats but the game is not decided on FIP and K/9. Stupid Bud Selig. Erasmo went 4 innings (ARRGRGGHGHGH), gave up 4 (5 earned), had 5 K’s and 1 walk. Let me tell you this, Erasmo Ramirez striking out dudes is awesome. With his quality of stuff, he should be like Blake Beavan. His career high K/9 in the minors was 7.44 when he also walked 2.76 per 9. 5 K’s in 4 innings is a K/9 of 11.25, if you don’t know that off the top of your head like me. But yeah, Erasmo was not super impressive. Gave up 2 bombs. Meh. I am losing motivation to talk about the Amigos since they were so terrible. And I haven’t even gotten to Kevin Millwood yet. AARRRRRGGGHGHGHGHGHGHGHGHG!!!!! Erasmo gets a month and a half in Summer School. He needs to work on his “Don’t give up dingers essay.” I hear his thesis is really interesting.

Kevin “I regret sending in the Amigos early last time since I have to talk about you twice now” Millwood

For those of you how have their critical thinking caps on, you will notice I made up a nickname for Kevin. Its not his real nickname, sanctioned by the blog, but sometimes I go maverick. Patrick is used to it by now. This time, in what Kevin Millwood has done recently to piss off Anthony, we have giving up two hits and three RBI’s to Clayton Richard. Here is why that makes me mad. Clayton Richard is a pitcher. Clayton Richard is a pitcher for the Padres. And I HATE losing to the Padres. Not because we have some stupid rivalry with them like the MLB wishes, but because they suck more than us. So cool Kevin, you have furthered my dislike of you by letting the other teams pitcher beat you. In the game against the Giants, Millwood went 5 innings, gave up 3 earned (4 runs total), had one walk and 3 K’s. He also gave up 9 hits and did not do a good job. In his game against the hated Padres, he went 5 innings (again), gave up 5 earned (8 total), had 3 walks and 3 K’s. Also bad. Yeah, Kyle Seager had a rough day in the hot corner and Millwood probably shouldn’t have given up 8 runs. But the pitcher went 2-2 off of him. GARRRRRGHGHGHGHGH. Something to note about Millwood though, is his doesn’t give up many home runs. He has only given up 3 all year. See, I am making progress in my dislike of him. He is in summer school for 2.5 months, trying to understand how a pitcher got 3 RBI’s off of him. 

The Word

Imperfect

For those of you who missed the big news, I am very sorry. I’ll do my best to make this short so the pain doesn’t get to deep. But Lucas Luetge has now given up an earned run(s) and no longer has an ERA of 0.00. Lets just remember how awesome it was to see his streak blossom like a rare orchid and show its beauty to the world. I am tearing up right now so I’ll make it quick. Lucas, you are still my favorite and have an ERA of 0.00 in my heart. (In retrospect this is really weird. Sorry for scaring any readers, I am not as obsessed with Lucas Luetge as this paragraph would make me seem. Patrick may mock me for this, I accept that punishment).

Tip of My Cap

Franklin Gutierrez and Casper Wells

Usually, this accolade only goes to one person. But these two are both doing about the same thing so I will split this award, as controversial as it may seem. I will first award Franklin because he has been more noticeable in the past 48 hours for me. He has now come back form injury and has had a chance to get settled. He was hitting .308 after a nice 4-5 performance the other day. What I like better is his slugging percentage, which is .577. Keep in mind that he has only played a few games so all those numbers will fluctuate quite a bit. But yay for Franklin. Casper is doing much of the same and has earned himself a spot in the outfield. He is hitting .296 with an OPS above .800. That is awesome, but we have Saunders, Guti and Ichiro blocking him in the outfield. If you’re like an ex-teacher of mine, Brian Elsner, you trade Ichiro. If you’re like me, you let Ichiro play until the end of the year or try and then end the relationship. 

Wag of my Finger

The pitching staff except for Felix

This time through the rotation, we did terrible. I detailed the struggles of ¾ of the failures above, but now Jason Vargas gets in on the action. And wow did he suck. Vargas is probably our only attractive trade piece. And when you give up 10 runs in 4 innings and 5 home runs. That is not good. He is reverting back to his old Jekyll and Hyde self. That is not good. Jason! Patrick got your autograph on a napkin once. Just like I got a forged Dan Wilson autograph once. Shape up!  

Happy Felix Day

By Patrick

Happy Felix Day

I really don't think a preview will do justice to the absolutely terrible pitching the M's have put forth lately, so all I'm doing tonight is posting about Felix briefly. He needs this win tonight. He has no business getting hit around by the Padres like he did last time he faced them. I expect him to go eight innings, allowing just two runs on five hits. The Mariners will win 8-2. Go M's.

Sucks to Suck Part 1

By Patrick

The Mariners suck. The Padres suck. So tonight, it sucks to suck in San Diego. Except the weather in Seattle is just complete shit and San Diego likely has tons of sun. I hate my life. Anyhow, the M's can't afford to lose games in this series. They inevitably will probably lose one, but they shouldn't if they want to gain respect. 

Petco Park is possibly the only park that stymies offense more effectively than Safeco. So this series will test the Mariner offense yet again. Also, I hate the Mariners-Padres series for that reason. Nobody ever scores, and since Adrian Gonzalez left San Diego, there are no elite hitters on either team. Maybe the Mariner pitching will improve as a result of the crappy Padres offense.

June 22: Kevin Millwood (3-5, 3.69) vs. Clayton Richard (4-7, 3.97)

Richard healed up against the Mariners last time he opposed them, and will look to continue his resurgence tonight. Millwood would like to find some consistency by defeating a crappy offense tonight. Hmmm. Not much to say here. Richard is left-handed, which doesn't traditionally favor the Mariners' lefty heavy lineup. Millwood has pitched against every team in every park, so maybe he can use his experience to succeed tonight. The Mariners need a good start, that's for sure. Maybe Millwood is the man to give them that tonight.

Players to watch

Miguel Olivo: I'm pissed the Mariners aren't playing Jesus Montero tonight. So all of us will inevitably have to watch Olivo. He's right handed though, so he'll probably hold a small advantage over Richard. I have a good feeling about him tonight. He has to earn his PT on the road in interleague play, and I bet he does that. If not, Montero will probably pinch hit anyway.

Carlos Quentin: No explanation needed here. If you happened not to catch my preview from the last series, I told you not to watch anybody else besides Quentin. I do not change my stance. Change the channel when the M's pitch.

Prediction:

M's 5, Padres 2: Vengeance is sweet. When you're avenging a sweep to the Padres, it's kind of expected. The M's need a sweep this weekend. This is the place to start. A homer by Olivo and another by Justin Smoak should do the trick. Go M's.

The Curious Case of Felix Hernandez

By Anthony

Wooooo!

Felix Hernandez is awesome. I will come out and say that right now. He is the rock of the franchise and main reason why the Mariners are in any sense relevant. He has had to put up with sub par offenses for a while and never complained. Kudos to you Felix. He has had a Wins-Above-Replacement of above 5.5 for the past three years. That means he has won over 5.5 more games for the team than whoever would have replaced him. For some context, C.C. Sabathia has had 2 seasons above 5.5 WAR in the past three. But, for some reason, Felix has only had a WAR of 1.7 this year and has struggled. He has had some starts where he looked like an average pitcher, not a guy nicknamed the King. I will look into the numbers and see what exactly is wrong with the King. Just a heads up, there will be a bunch of numbers, since numbers never lie, unlike the eye test.

I will be drawing all my data from the Pitch f/x system and data stored on texasleaguers.com. It is a very interesting site for a numbers nerd like myself. The two sample sizes I will be using are Felix in the last three years and Felix this year. This is what I found.

Pre-2012 Felix

Pitch	%Thrown	% Strikes	Velocity	Swing %	Whiff %
4 Seam Fastball	35.4	63.7	93.9	45.8	7
2 Seam Fastball	1.3	58.6	93.6	46.4	10
Sinker	24.8	66.7	93.3	48	6.5
Changeup	14.2	67.4	89.2	58.8	17.9
Curveball	15.1	59.4	82.4	33.5	11.4
Slider	8.9	65.1	86.4	46.4	16.2

2012 Felix

Pitch	%Thrown	% Strikes	Velocity	Swing %	Whiff %
4 Seam Fastball	16.5	60.9	91.7	39.6	4.5
2 Seam Fastball	8.8	63	91.8	48.1	5.6
Sinker	12.7	68.6	91.8	43.6	3.2
Changeup	32.7	63.3	89.1	50.0	14.5
Curveball	14.9	59.9	81.4	40.7	9.3
Slider	14.1	60.7	86	43.9	11.6

For those who aren’t very used to comparing sets of data, I will now break down what I see from these two tables. There are two key issues that I see as the root of Felix’s problems and struggles.

First of all is his velocity. Everyone knows that Felix is not throwing as hard as he usually does. What I find curious about this certain issue is that it is not a problem with his off-speed pitches. Only his fastball(s) and sinker (I am fairly sure that there is some cross-over between his sinker and 2-seam fastball but Pitch f/x has its issues that we can’t really correct) are losing velocity. This does not signal an arm issue or aging to me. A drop in velocity would show across the board if that was the problem. Recently, Felix has mentioned the issue and the M’s have come out and said its not a big deal. Really? I would claim it is a big deal, or at least something that could attribute to his struggles. Know who else has had velocity issues this year? Tim Lincecum. And we just beat the former Cy Young winner. Felix has finally watched tape of himself and saw that he was not pushing off with his back leg and wasn’t being as aggressive with his upper body. This is absolutely an awesome revelation from Felix. All of those things hurt velocity and when he returned from a back injury, that was an annoying setback, he had made changes. 

Most Recent Felix (In two starts)

2012 Felix

Pitch	%Thrown	% Strikes	Velocity	Swing %	Whiff %
4 Seam Fastball	25	64.7	92.2	39.6	4.5
2 Seam Fastball	13.7	67.9	92.9	48.1	5.6
Sinker	15.2	80.6	92.3	43.6	3.2
Changeup	22.1	53.3	89.4	50.0	14.5
Curveball	11.7	82.6	82.5	40.7	9.3
Slider	12.7	53.8	86.5	43.9	11.6

Notice how his velocity has jumped up a few ticks. That is very good. I don’t care how much a pitch moves, it has to make a batter scared. Meaning that they have to worry about it being thrown past them. Not because that happens often, but a good fastball can turn an average off-speed pitch into a very good weapon. If a batter is worried about getting beat by a fastball, they will be more willing to swing at an off-speed pitch. And guess what Felix’s best pitch is? His changeup. That thing is NASTY! But if he throws it at the same speed as his fastball, a batter won’t be too worried. Notice how the whiff percentage has dropped with his changeup this year. That is not because it has lost movement or anything, but because hitters aren’t too worried about Felix throwing 96 past them. They know they can sit on his now mediocre fastball and hit it. He has made steps here, but he needs to get his velocity up on his fastball. 

The second thing, a universal fact in pitching, is that Felix must throw strikes. I don’t care if a pitcher has the stuff of Justin Verlander or is a teenager in a summer league game who hasn’t pitched in two years. The way to get batters out is to throw strikes. Not every batter is Vlad Guerrero or Miguel Olivo. Felix needs to get ahead of hitters and he absolutely can. One of his best characteristics is that he has command of all his pitches. I have watched him throw 3-1 curves for strikes and 1-2 fastballs right at the catcher’s glove. He has the ability to consistently hit his spots. If you ignore the two-seamer/ sinker similarity that Pitch f/x can’t figure out, almost all of his strike percentages have dropped. His curve percentage has increased half a percentage. Not significant. But his command is clearly lacking. Something that backs this point up is that in the past three years, his BB/9 has been about 2.5. Now it is at 2.85. Not a super large jump, but he has also hit 7 people so far this year. He averaged 7.66 batters hit in the past three years. That is bad. 

After he came back from injury, his strike percentages have jumped up dramatically. Mind, it is only two starts vs. 3 years of starts. But, it is a start. Especially with his fastball, he must be able to command his fastball and get ahead of batters when he needs to. His fastball is not his best pitch and is probably top 3, maybe. But it is still the pitch that is easiest to command and I guarantee you he has been throwing it for the longest. Everything with a pitcher starts with a fastball, it may not be good, but it has to be something that can be relied on to get strikes, and to set up other off-speed pitches. If Felix can get his fastball to go where he wants, he should be able to find some success.

So there you are. Felix has had troubles this year. He has a home run problem. He has had some bad innings that he can’t get out of. He hasn’t been the dominant, lights-out starter that we expect him to be. All that comes down to is two simple issues, velocity and command. Every pitcher needs them. Felix included. So watch for those two factors in his next start. And Go M’s.

Rattling the Snakes Part 2 (in pictures)

By Patrick

Erasmo Ramirez makes his second start of the season for the Mariners.

Daniel Hudson (3-1, 5.67)  goes for Arizona

Ichiro returns from his day off with a chance to right the ship

Aaron Hill hit for the cycle yesterday

Mariners will win 7-2. Go M's.

Rattling the Snakes, Part 1

By Patrick

Oh, you said Wade Miley...Awkward

It's amazing with a team as streaky as the Mariners that after a potentially season damning six game losing streak, they can snap back just like that and take a series from a solid Giants team. They did that though, and now head off to play a struggling Arizona side for a chance to continue ripping it up with the bats on the road. 

Justin Smoak may have kicked it in gear just at the right time. He had a pretty rough home stand, and his average fell around ten points. But he delivered a big confidence walk-off single in the ninth on Sunday, and will look to ride that momentum into a hitters' park in Arizona. If he can deliver some big offense, the Mariners can grab some important wins.

Under the radar from this weekend went the promotion of Oliver Perez from AAA for Steve Delabar. Perez used to be a stud starter, but flopped after Mets took a gamble on him with a big contract. he struggled in the spring, and consequently didn't receive an initial roster spot. He might see time in this series. More likely, he'll become the new Hisashi Iwakuma. On to the matchup.

June 18: Hector Noesi (2-7, 5.54) vs. Wade Miley "Cyrus" (7-3, 2.39)

The Mariners have some solid momentum, and Noesi fared really well last time out against the Padres (even though he got Safeco'd by getting shit for run support). However, Miley will provide a stiff challenge for the M's. He's the prototypical Mariner killer, and the M's should be counting their lucky stars that he's in the National League. He's a young lefty with serious strikeout potential who relies on his fastball in the low nineties to set up his off-speed stuff. He hasn't allowed more than four runs in any start in 2012, so he's a solid number two starter type in his first full season in the bigs. He's a former first round draft pick out of Southeastern Louisiana, so you know he was highly touted. Noesi on the other hand has an ERA around 8.00 on the road this year. Yikes. Momentum seems to be the only factor favoring the M's tonight.

Players to Watch:

Miguel Montero: The other Montero. OK, maybe Jesus Montero is the other one for now. That's because Montero is not a catcher to look past. He's regarded as one of the top five hitting catchers in the league, and Arizona proved they share that opinion by locking him up with a big extension earlier this year. So far in 2012, his .253/6/32 doesn't necessarily put fear in the hearts of pitchers, but it does challenge the mentality that the catcher should be an easy out.

Michael Saunders: Saunders has fallen into a deadlock for the M's batting lead among qualifiers, after Montero's recent success has vaulted him up to .270, where the Condor currently lurks. Saunders will lead off for the second time in his big league career today, and that role will come with a lot of responsibility. Can he continue his recent road success and keep hitting lefties better than righties (weird, since he's a lefty himself)? The M's will have to hope so.

Prediction:

Diamondbacks 6, M's 3: I really liked the Mariners chances going back on the road with momentum and confidence. Then I read about Miley. It just looks like another long day ahead for Mariner hitters. Plus throwing Noesi into a big time hitters' park with that lethal 8.00 ERA won't help the Seattle cause. I'm just not seeing it for the M's tonight. They'll fall behind early, and a late rally will come up short. Go M's.