Sorting Out the Offense

I talked about the pitching here yesterday, and today we switch over to the offense and defense. And just a heads up, I am not a huge fan of the moves the M’s made. I don’t like Jason Bay, Mike Morse or Raul Ibanez. Kendrys Morales was ok until the other three showed up. I will explain my feelings in a bit but for now, here is the roster break down right now.

To be clear, the Casper Wells vs. Jason Bay roster battle has not yet been settled. However, I watched Casper Wells play in a AAA game yesterday while Jason Bay is with the M’s in Salt Lake. Meaning that Bay is the front-runner there and Wells has not been cut in case of injury.

Sorry Casper, looks like you didn't make the squad

Here are the 13 players who are starting the year with the Mariners

C Jesus Montero

1B Justin Smoak

2B Dustin Ackley

SS Brendan Ryan

3B Kyle Seager

LF Michael Saunders

CF Franklin Gutierrez

RF Mike Morse

DH Kendrys Morales

C Kelly Shoppach

INF Robert Andino

OF Raul Ibanez

OF Jason Bay

To make this seem easier, I am going to break this into probable lineups against righties and lefties.

LHPS

Catcher	Montero/ Shoppach
First Base	Smoak/ Morales
Second Base	Ackley
Shortstop	Ryan
Third Base	Seager
Left Field	Saunders/ Bay
Center Field	Gutierrez
Right Field	Morse
DH	Morales

RHPS

Catcher	Montero/Shoppach
First Base	Smoak/ Morales
Second Base	Ackley
Shortstop	Ryan
Third Base	Seager
Left Field	Saunders
Center Field	Gutierrez
Right Field	Ibanez/ Morse/Bay
DH	Morales/ Morse/ Ibanez

            What really makes this situation super complex is the number of defensive options that actually exist and the variables that influence these options. Wedge has shown that he likes to play platoon splits, based off of how he handled the Jaso, Olivo, Montero threesome last year. But he also now has a lot of power at his disposal, which could lead him to ignoring splits and trying to get Morales and Morse as many AB’s as possible. Then there is Justin Smoak who is just the worst kind of baseball player. He is so teasing with his talent and then is awful. And all indications are he will get every chance possible to play regularly. Also, Morales is still not 100% in the field and Wedge has already said that he won’t get regular time there. And now we dive into the giant mess of GJMBSP (Giant Jumbled Mess of Big Strong Players).

"I have to play in the field? Thats totally not working out well"

            So if we are facing a lefty, we want as many right handed hitters in the line up as possible. Except Saunders, who actually is pretty even with his platoon splits. That means Smoak and Morales, as switch hitters, should start at DH and 1B. Morse will probably get the start in right field, which makes myself and every Mariners pitcher cringe in horror. Then there is Jason Bay who could step in for Saunders if the platoon splits are worrying or if they want to give Morse a day off. Or Smoak, or Morales.

            Now we get to right handed pitchers and the real dilemma of Raul Ibanez. If Ibanez gets a start now and then, as he should since he is on the roster and we don’t need another Chone Figgins-esque waste of a roster spot like last year, it gets weird. If Ibanez plays DH then Smoak or Morales must sit, a definite downgrade. If Ibanez starts in left, that means Saunders, Guti or Morse must sit. And if we start Ibanez and Morse in the outfield, I pray for mercy on that pitcher because those two could not stop a balloon filled with helium from falling for a single. 

Robert Andino= Total baller

            So in conclusion, we have about 5 guys who can play the outfield and 5 guys who can play 1B/DH. This leaves us with Robert Andino who is left backing up all three infield spots that aren’t first base. So pretty much Wedge has left himself a deep dark hole of roster confusion to deal with. Or, to look at it another way, he can play around with the lineups to his hearts content, just with positions that are often not messed around with. This team has a lot of flexibility at the 1B/DH/C/LF/RF spots, and very little flexibility elsewhere. Oh, and by the way, our first pinch runners off the bench are looking like Andino and Jason Bay. Who is excited for Mariners baseball?

Sorting Out the Mariners Pitching

This is all sort of late and whatever, but this is a second blog post in two days. I’m taking baby steps here. Soon, you might even get some new, original, up-to-date and interesting content. I really shouldn’t get your hopes up though, that was dumb of me. Anyway, since I am lazy and would rather spend tomorrow looking at the GJMBSP (Giant Jumbled Mess of Big Strong Players) that is our offense right now I will be looking at our pitching situation.

Yeah Hisashi, I'm already predicting your stats, don't suck please

Starters

Felix Hernandez

Hisashi Iwakuma

Joe Saunders

Brandon Maurer

Blake Beavan

I already discussed the last three yesterday and can sum up that discussion in a few words. I love Brandon Maurer’s beard. Joe Saunders is in the running to be this year’s Kevin Millwood. Blake Beavan is still Blake Beavan. Now we move onto Felix and Hisashi Iwakuma.

I had the pleasure of watching Iwakuma face the Chicago Cubs yesterday and despite their regulars only getting one at-bat before the scrubs showed up, Iwakuma did fine. He is weirdly consistent in that he will strike out a few guys, walk a few guys and give up a home run. I am really tempted to project his stats this year in the 15-10 with a 3.58 ERA and a HR/9 of about .80. That’s right, its been published on the internet, I am totally accountable for those projections. And I guess I’ll stand by it, whatever, he is Hisashi Iwakuma. Despite suffering from dry skin issues yesterday, I am totally serious too, he looked like the boring, consistent and not sexy pitcher I remember. That is absolutely a good thing. We need all the consistency we can get with Saunders, Beavan and Maurer behind him.

Instead of discussing how awesome Felix Hernandez is, I will leave you with a slideshow of awesome pictures of Felix pitching and doing other things. You’re welcome.

Pensive Felix

Excited Felix

Peek-a-boo Felix

Flexible Felix

Bullpen

Carter Capps

Stephen Pryor

Tom Wilhelmsen

Kameron Loe

Oliver Perez

Lucas Luetge

Charlie Furbush

This is the exact same bullpen as last year, except Josh Kinney grew like a foot and totally changed his appearance, pitching mechanics, and name. I automatically like Kameron Loe because he is tall, but he offers similar results to Kinney. Whereas Kinney used off-speed stuff ad nauseum, Loe uses his fastball and steep angle of release to get a bunch of groundballs. He can also pitch a few innings and will play the “long-relief” role along with Charlie Furbush. Lucas Luetge’s hair is looking super awesome, for everyone who cares. WHICH SHOULD BE EVERYONE! He has since gotten his hair trimmed. Because his wife wanted him too. I am not pleased with you Mrs. Luetge. Wilhelmsen has not looked good so far, but I don’t really care because Spring Training stats really mean nothing. I saw Carter Capps pitch against the Cubs scrubs yesterday and he looks like the real deal. He could very easily threaten for the closer role this year and definitely next year. His fastball looked as awesome as ever and he has a lot more confidence in his slider than last year. I’m excited to watch him this year. Stephen Pryor is still throwing gas, as was expected and Charlie Furbush is still classic Charlie "Whirling Dervish" Furbush.

This pitching staff will not be as good as it was last year. Saunders, despite having almost identical stats to Vargas, is on the wrong side of 30 but should be around league average, depending on how much the fence changes affect fly balls. Felix is Felix. Hisashi is Hisashi. Beavan is still a ham sandwich. The real wild card is Brandon Maurer, who hasn’t pitched above AA before. Remember last time the M’s broke camp with a guy who hadn’t pitched above AA before? He didn’t give up an earned run until June 19^th. He was also Lucas Luetge, a lefty specialist, but whatever. If Maurer can’t hang with the major league hitters, Erasmo Ramirez is waiting in Tacoma. But I think Maurer will surprise people and potentially go Erasmo all over everyone (I think Erasmo-ing is totally catching on). This rotation is solid, but the GJMBSP will have to hit to carry this team to a winning record. 

The Spring Training Post: Only Two Months Late

            Ok, so at this point I am not even going to try and justify why Patrick and I haven’t been writing much. Sorry I have a life and spend many weekends of my chasing a piece of plastic. That part of my life is mostly over and my calendar has opened up. So I am giving some of you readers who are still with us for some reason, a slice of my newly discovered time. This also correlates with my trip to Arizona to watch the Mariners. Due to some unfortunate scheduling, I will only get to see one game and will not get to watch any practice. Such is life. To be totally honest, this isn’t the first article I’ve tried to write on Spring Training. I wrote one about a week and a half ago and sent it to Patrick. Who didn’t post it. Probably because it was not very good. So this is my second attempt to get people fired up for the Mariners in 2013. You fired up yet?

           

These guys are fired up

            This Spring has been full of surprises and some things that were essentially already set. Brandon Maurer has made the rotation, that’s a surprise. Mike Zunino did not, shocker! As much as I would love to break down the roster and tell you whether it will be Casper Wells or Jason Bay making the roster, I really don’t know. A rejuvenated Jason Bay could get much more value at the trade deadline, but he also has not been a productive player since 2009. Wells has his own issues and did suffer an injury earlier in Spring Training, which cost him some games and chances to prove himself. He’s the safe bet between the two, but Wedge rarely thinks like I do and he could gamble on Bay figuring out his swing.

            I’ll cover the details of the rotation, offense and how Wedge plans on playing Montero, Morales, Smoak, Morse and Ibanez all at once tomorrow or Friday. I really haven’t looked at too much and it’s kind of a giant jumble of really big, strong, slow baseball players. For now, you will have to settle with me discussing Brandon Maurer, Joe Saunders and Blake Beavan. The new Three Amigos. (Thank all things holy I don’t have to talk about Hector Noesi anymore.)

Blake Beavan

As much as I hate Blake Beavan and how boring he is, he somehow managed to make the roster again. Although, if things break right (And by right I mean badly for Beavan), he will be sent down to AAA and Erasmo Ramirez will retake the spot he should have had locked up after last year and this Spring. (I’m a little bitter). Beavan has made himself more interesting in the off-season though. He went and worked with the pitching coach at University of Texas who changed up his mechanics a little. The difference being that Beavan now releases the ball higher in the air, giving it more of a downward angle as it moves toward the batter. This makes it harder to hit the ball in the air, and will absolutely make Beavan better. It also makes it harder to pick out off-speed pitches, so Beavan might actually strike out some guys this year. But I don’t see his changes benefitting him too much. A 1.36 HR/9 can fall only so far and Beavan still does not have the stuff to be effective at the MLB level. Ramirez, who I expect to handle AAA with ease, should replace him within two months.

Brandon Maurer

The first thing you need to know with Brandon Maurer is that he is awesome. Look at this beard. Look at it again. I really don’t care if he pitches like Jeff Weaver, that beard is the greatest thing about this 2013 M’s team. He also put up some awesome numbers in Spring Training, but those things are just as important as the shower cap in hotel rooms. Everyone knows that Maurer is the guy who beat out the Big 3 for Minor League Pitcher of the Year. These are the three things you need to know about Maurer before he debuts with the team.

I think I am lost in his eyes

1.     He has an awesome beard.

2.     He played on the same high school baseball team as Gerrit Cole, number one draft pick for the Pirates

3.     He is really good. Polished, smart and not afraid to use his secondary stuff. Don’t be surprised if he goes Erasmo on us. (I may be trying to get that word into everyday conversation)

Show me your mean face Joe

Joe Saunders

I first knew who Joe Saunders was when he was a young lefty for the Angels who somehow outperformed and was a solid starter for my fantasy baseball team. He is about 90% Jason Vargas and 10% Jarrod Washburn. If you are jumping out of your chair in excitement, just wait, there’s more. There isn’t more, sorry, Saunders is not very good. And I really don’t see him doing much more than filling a spot until Hultzen is ready or losing his spot to Erasmo Ramirez if Beavan suddenly Erasmo’s (That wasn’t forced right?). I think Joe Saunders is this year’s Kevin Millwood. Damn.

           

There will be more content coming soon. I swear on the lack of flexibility on our roster right now and the combined K percentage of Morse, Morales and Smoak. And that right there is a promise.