Break up the Big Three? And to the Royals?

By Patrick

Winter is coming. By winter, I mean three really good pitchers

In 2014-ish, the Mariners should have one of the most formidable young rotations in baseball, with an extended Felix Hernandez joined by any number of four young pitchers who have proven themselves to be studs at the minor league level. The three superstars of the Mariners' system are Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton, affectionately referred to as the Big Three. They're basically LeBron, Wade, and Bosh, except they play baseball, haven't won a championship, and haven't played at the major league level yet. However, all that should change in 2013, when all three will likely make their debuts in Seattle. Hultzen may break camp with the team, whereas Walker and Paxton will likely start in AAA.

All of this means that the future is getting closer by the second. The Mariners window for future success is almost open. And at least at this point, the offense doesn't appear ready to seize that opportunity when it comes. However, the Mariners could drastically bolster their offense by trading young pitching for young hitting, much like they did when they acquired Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda last January. In theory, if a move like that were to occur, the M's would have to throw in one of the Big Three to get maximum value out of such a deal. The question, should they?

According to Geoff Baker and Buster Olney in a compiled report on MLBTradeRumors.com, the Royals have actively been scouting Paxton in the Arizona Fall League. For those who don't remember the eight games between the Mariners and Royals in 2012, the Royals cannot pitch for shit. In two four-games series in July, the M's scored 52 runs. Jesus Montero hit like .600. The Mariners beat Bruce Chen. THE MARINERS BEAT BRUCE CHEN! The Royals, by extension, need pitching, and not just rent-a-pitching, but young, talented pitching that can contribute for years to come.

The Mariners have a similar need, except that theirs is on the hitting side. The Mariners need some young, talented hitting that will actually contribute (Justin Smoak doesn't count) for years to come. Ironically, the Royals have a surplus in this area. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon and to a certain extent, Billy Butler fit the Mariners area of need quite well.

Of those four, Alex Gordon stands out as a perfect candidate for the Mariners to trade for. Gordon has hit .303 and .294 the last two seasons while missing a grand total of 12 games. He missed one game last season. He's also a gap power left fielder who can run fairly well.

In case you don't understand part of the reason this blog is named Way Out In Left Field, the Mariners have only had two players in franchise history log 150 games in left field in one season. The only good left fielder the Mariners have ever had was Raul Ibanez. That's it and that's all. A player like Gordon could change that.

But is the likely price of Paxton and another much younger prospect worth the move for the Mariners? Maybe. Paxton is certainly the "Chris Bosh" of the super threesome, having struggled with some injuries and ultimately projected as the "worst" of the Big Three. Would just two super awesome young pitchers be enough for the Mariners to work with?

As tempting as Gordon and his fellow teammates are on paper, the Mariners have to hold on to their entire core of young pitching. If the Royals would except Erasmo Ramirez in place of Paxton, then maybe Jack Z pulls the trigger. However, the motto in all four of Jack Z's years with the organization has been building from within and eventually winning with that talent. Young hitters like Mike Zunino, Stefan Romero and Nick Franklin offer hope that with additions of quality veteran free agents, the Mariners can win without having to deal the deep pitching that will take them to the next level.

As the San Francisco Giants are showing in the World Series right now, pitching depth is huge once the playoffs begin. The Giants have four quality starters, and a fifth with two Cy Youngs on his resume that bridges the gap from starters to shut down relievers. The Mariners will have all of those by 2014. For now, they need young hitters to continue to progress to get them to the playoffs. What they can't afford to do is deal one of the Big Three and risk losing out on an incredible talent for the seasons in their window of opportunity. As tempting as Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas are, Tai Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton are ours, and you can't have them. Go Mariners.

2012 was a success only if 2013 is better

By Patrick

2010 was a simpler time. Also, Carlos Silva and Ryan Langerhans.

Now that I've had about three weeks to separate myself from the Mariners 75-win 2012 campaign, it's about time I sit back and reflect on what took place and what it means for the franchise's future.

The Mariners embarked up their 35th season in franchise history with little hope of contending, and early on in the year, the team dashed what small hopes they had. By the end of June, the team was 12 games under .500, and not a threat to contend. Chone Figgins went from opening day starter to situation pinch runner. Felix Hernandez struggled, and Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan still looked like AAA pitchers. The offense hit well on the road, but went ice cold at home in the thick, marine air.

However, things changed in July, about a week or so after the all-star break. In a month where the Mariners had dropped a franchise record 17 straight games just a year before, the team surged. The Mariners embarked on a stretch of a little over a month where they had multiple seven-game winning streaks, won 15 out of 16 at home, and nearly clawed back to .500. Jason Vargas was AL pitcher of the month in July and following his perfect game, Felix Hernandez won the same award in August. The M's played five games over .500 in the two months. Jesus Montero, Kyle Seager, Michael Saunders and the boys started to swing the bats, and fans got a glimpse of what a successful, young baseball team  looks like. Ironically, this all happened after the Mariners traded away the face of the franchise, Ichiro, to the Yankees for two prospects who may never see the majors.

In September, the team came back to earth, going 11-18 after September 1. The young team became discouraged with losing once again, and the contenders in the division that had a real chance at a playoff spot fought for it and took it from the M's. Incredibly, Justin Smoak hit the crap out of the ball in the season's final month, rescuing a doomed .185 average and raising it 30 points. The M's finished with eight double-digit home run hitters for the first time in a decade, and Seager posted a respectable .259/20/86 season in the triple crown categories. Felix limped to the finish, knocking himself out of Cy Young contention with four horrible starts in the season's final month. The Mariners finished 75-87, winning eight more games than in 2011, the first year of the Eric Wedge era.

Overall, the 2012 season was a step in the right direction for the Mariners. The young players like Seager, Saunders, Montero, Smoak and Ackley got another season under their belts, and regardless of how shitty it might have been for some of them, they at least got to see a full season of major league pitching. John Jaso was an absolute delight, leading the team in batting after coming from the Rays in exchange for everybody's friendly neighborhood sodomist, Josh Lueke. Vargas had the best season of his career, Felix threw perfect game and nearly won his second Cy Young, Hisashi Iwakuma shined as a starter in the second half, and even Blake Beavan went 11-11 (that's real. check it.). The team found out that Brandon League couldn't close and Tom Wilhelmsen and his nasty hammer curve could. They also debuted young bullpen arms like Carter Capps, Stephen Pryor, and Lucas Luetge, who all appear to have bright futures with the franchise.

The Mariners also found out a few things the hard way. Chone Figgins helped the Mariners realize he's not a major league baseball player any more. The entire offense helped the Mariners to see that the fences need to come in if home runs are to be a part of April and May baseball at Safeco. Miguel Olivo reminded the franchise that he's, well, Miguel Olivo, and .222/12/29 is what he's been doing his entire career. Carlos Peguero, Luis Jimenez, and Alex Liddi reminded the franchise why they've been in AAA for so long. Mike Carp made the organization forget about last August by being hurt all year and sucking when he seemed healthy. Hector Noesi absolutely tanked all year, and doesn't look like a major league starter. Kevin Millwood somehow made it through the season at 6-12, even though he came out of about five games with injuries and had almost zero upside at 37 years old.

The question then becomes, where do the Mariners go from here? 75 wins is only acceptable if it becomes a number in the 80's the next season. The team needs to keep improving. Sure, the youngsters will get better as they approach their primes, but for 2013, just relying on Seager, Ackley, and Montero to kick it up a notch won't be good enough. The team needs to pursue quality, veteran free agents that will bring a culture of winning back to Seattle, and eventually put some more butts in the Safeco Field seats, which were filled about half as much in 2012 as they were in 2002.

The Mariners can win 80 games in 2013, but only if they show a strong commitment to continue this upward trend of wins from within and outside of the organization. That requires everyone involved, from the players to the manager to the GM all the way up to Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln, to give their best effort to make this team into a winner. Frankly, I don't know if that's going to happen. But if it does, some great things could happen in Seattle in 2013. Go M's.

Here are my 2012 season awards:

MVP: Felix

Pitcher of the year: Felix

Hitter of the year: Seager

Reliever of the year: Wilhelmsen

Rookie of the year: Iwakuma

Captain Clutch: Jaso

Most Inspirational: Munenori Kawasaki

LVP (L is for least): Figgins

Worst Pitcher: Noesi

Worst Hitter: Figgins

Worst Reliever: Steve Delabar

Least Inspirational: Figgins

Projecting the 2013 Lineup:

By: Anthony

Once again Patrick and I have dropped the ball on providing consistent content. I have been on a beard quest in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and Patrick has, well, been busy. He has already projected the 2013 rotation and I will now take on the more daunting task of projecting the 2013 starting lineup. Note: I will be incorrectly assuming that the Mariners take the same position players they had this year into next year because of the infinite possibilities of signings and trade Jack Z could make. If you want to read my offseason plan for the Mariners, here it is.

Jaso

Smoak

Ackley

Ryan

Seager

Wells

Gutierrez

Saunders

Montero

Carp

Franklin

Robinson

Catricala

The definition of a successful beard quest

Catcher

John Jaso should start, plain and simple. He was one of our best hitters last year with an OPS of .850. He also made a successful beard quest mid-season and was only marginally below average on throwing out base runners with a caught stealing of 20% versus the league average of 26%. Mike Zunino will not be ready to break camp with the team. We do not need to sign a veteran scrap heap guy to break camp with the team. We will for depth purposes so he can sit in AAA and be ready to play if Jaso gets hurt. Our backup will be- drum roll please- Jesus Montero. I understand why people don’t want him to catch, it is not where he will play in the future. But how much damage can another half-season of backing up Jaso until Zunino is ready do? He wasn’t a disaster defensively and we need to get his bat in the lineup as much as possible.

First Base

I really hate Justin Smoak but of course there is nobody in the system right now who can push him for a regular starting spot. It will be a battle between him and Carp for first and Smoak will get more plate appearances because of his September. The team will stick with Smoak until he once again reveals his ineptitude in months that don’t rhyme with Feptember. To fill in his place, Carp and Montero can split reps. Yes, the timing of this will be weird. But once Zunino is called up and displaces Montero from backing up Jaso, Montero will switch to backing up Carp at first base and getting most of his reps at DH.

Second Base

Dustin Ackley will once again get his playing time. We must hope that the most advanced bat in the draft will figure out how to hit and not become a defense first second basemen. Backing him up will be tough to figure out with Nick Franklin knocking on the door in the AFL. With a good spring, Franklin will  fill in at both shortstop and second.

I guess he is kind of good at defense

Short Stop

Brendan Ryan. Is anyone here surprised? He can hit .230 and be an above average player because of his defense. Enough on him and Franklin backs him up.

Third Base-

Kyle Seager should not be a surprise and Chone Figgins should leave. So in the backup role we have Vinnie Catricala. This is what I would call a “power move.” Not in the way that Catricala has tons of power, but after struggling in AAA Tacoma last year he lost much of his prospect shine. He will turn it around and backup Seager and also get some time at first to introduce him to the big leagues.

Pray to any and all deities that he stays healthy

Outfield

Saunders, Wells, Robinson and Gutierrez. I include four people here because of the almost guarantee the Guti gets hurt. Right now Wells, Saunders and Guti will start and Robinson can back them up/ be ready to play once Guti suffers a freak injury that nobody saw coming. Carp can also play left to split time with Robinson post-Guti injury.

This roster will win roughly 75 wins. Almost the exact same as last year, which is the reason why some moves will have to be made and some guys cut loose. But it is good to know that we have enough organizational depth to fill in with talent and let some young guys get their feet wet.

Justin Smoak and Socrates: What they have in common.

By: Anthony

Now that the season is over and the Mariners ended up with a respectable 75 wins, we can now start to project the roster for 2013, an awesome exercise in speculation. One of the biggest questions is of course the hole at first base. I talked about this briefly in both my “What the Future Holds” and “Offseason Free Agent Targets” articles but that was before Justin Smoak looked at a calendar. Going back a step or two, I will explain the title of this article.

             

"How dare you compare me to Justin Smoak!"

Socrates is one of the most famous philosophers in history and was executed by the Greeks for corrupting the youth and impiety. Smoak may have corrupted many young people with his horrible hitting and general suckiness but this isn’t ancient Greece, otherwise Chone Figgins would have already had a hemlock smoothie. Socrates was known as a gadfly, a bug that is really annoying and doesn’t like to go away. A gadfly keeps buzzing around and annoying people. That’s why Justin Smoak is like Socrates, he is a gadfly!

Not only is Justin Smoak bad, but he has a great habit of being really good in September and just god awful for the other 7/8ths of a season. Don’t believe me? Think Justin Smoak is more of a dung beetle (Get it, it’s because he is bad)? I give you the data.

September/ October Stats

Year	Average	OPS	Home Runs	Strikeouts/ BB
2010	.340	1.001	3	11/7
2011	.301	.793	3	20/5
2012	.341	1.005	5	13/13

April- August Stats

Year	Average	OPS	Home Runs	Strikeouts/ BB
2010	.198	.624	10	80/39
2011	.220	.704	12	85/50
2012	.190	.575	14	98/36

The numbers do not lie. Justin Smoak either thinks that Spring Training continues through August or he secretly hibernates April through August. Personally I don’t know which is more feasible, I guess I would take hibernation due to his bear-like appearance.

Half-man, Half-Bear, Half-Gadfly

The affect that his September stats have on reporters, bloggers and fans is that he may have figured it out. Either he finally got healthy or he made a swing alteration or something changed and Smoak is finally living up to the talent level that saw him exchanged for Cliff Lee. I am still very dubious about this year. Smoak has shown a pattern in his hitting and until he proves he can hit April through August, I think he is a bust and should not spend too much more time in Seattle.

            There is good news however for Mariner fans and Smoak. He still has another option year! Huzzah! This means that he can be sent down to Tacoma and not have to clear waivers. So, say in some bizarre world Smoak sucks again at the start of next year (I am willing to accept bets that this happens). The M’s can option him down to Tacoma and let him try to figure it out for a while, free from worry that some team would claim him on waivers (I’m sure Jack Z has nightmares about that).

            Something that Smoak has struggled with is his confidence and many people close to the team have said that Smoak is finally feeling comfortable hitting and the results are starting to show. They are also saying the adjustments he made to his swing in the short time in Tacoma are starting to bear fruit. They are also saying his pregame routine of praying to the shrine of Foghorn Leghorn in his locker has been altered to include both Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck seems to finally be working. Guess what? Some of those things may be true, but it really doesn’t matter. He has shown this before and I will only be convinced he has become a competent Major League player when he hits the ball well from April to August.

            He will benefit from the fences being moved in, like most hitters. And Smoak will get a shot next year at first base, competing with Mike Carp and hopefully Jesus Montero. Carp failed to impress this year, battling injuries most of the year and Montero needs to learn the correct way for a human to run. This year was supposed to be a make or break year for Smoak, but somehow he gets another shot. If this team wants to medal in the AL West next year (a respectable feat these days), Smoak needs to figure out how to hit the ball consistently like he always does in September, or he can just be a gadfly again and annoy people.