What the Future Holds: Third Base

By: Anthony

If you haven’t read my first two pieces on first base and the middle infield, here they are.

Middle Infield

First Base

The hot corner is a feast or famine position. Meaning that teams either have a very good third baseman or a guy who can play there but is a hole in the lineup. For instance, Evan Longoria, David Wright and Adrian Beltre all play 3B for a contender. Know who else plays 3B in the MLB? Joaquin Arias, Brandon Inge and Jordan Pacheco. So the drop off is pretty steep from star to Chone Figgins. But seriously, I will not mention Chone again in this column. I will put 100:1 odds on Chone playing for Seattle next year. You may email me at terriblebets@gmail.com (all emails sent here will not be answered since it is a fake email address).

You're going to talk about me right?

 The Mariners are actually doing awesome here. Understand by awesome I mean that there is a young player who is performing at third base and minor leaguers who are not. Kyle Seager was supposed to be a middle infielder/ utility player. So basically Muenori Kawasaki without the dance moves. But then he shows up this year and takes over our offense, (At least away from Safeco). I could talk about how much I enjoy watching Seager hit, or I could make more Chone Figgins jokes. I’ll let you, the reader, decide. Go ahead, think about it. I’ll wait. (Pondering the life cycle of a western Red Wood tree). Sorry I have been in college this week, so I have been getting super intellectual. Anyway, my favorite Chone Figgins fun facts.

1.     His name is actually Desmond, not Chone for all those confused

2.     He was acquired by the Angels in a trade for Kimera Bartee

3.     He was born in Leary, Georgia

4.     He will not play for the Seattle Mariners next year

Clearly those weren’t in order since Leary, Georgia was mentioned third on that list. But Chone is terrible and according to my sources and instincts, Jack Z resents ever signing him (Seriously, both played a role in that opinion).

Super Stud            

This how much I’ll talk about Kyle Seager. He should and must stay at 3B. He has been solid defensively and has been one of our best hitters. He may be better defensively at 2B, but we already have numerous guys who could play there in the next five years, and we don’t need another one of those players. Our talent pool in the middle infield is much better than at third and Seager has been a bright spot in a relatively uninteresting year.

            So what exactly do we have in our minor league system at 3B? We have Alex Liddi, who I do not think will be able to hang in the MLB, especially with his current K rate. We have Vinnie Catricala, who was the most valuable hitter in the Mariners system last year. Francisco Martinez was hanging around in Jackson and Steven Proscia was basking in the glory of High Desert.

             
Alex Liddi is the first Italian-born player to play in the major leagues. Yay for fun facts! He also hit grand slams in back-to-back games a few years ago in Spring Training. Yay for fun facts! He has a K rate of 38% in 170 major league at-bats. That’s not very fun. And that is why I do not think Alex Liddi will stick with the Mariners. But something I do like from Liddi is that he is only 24 right now and still has a year or so to figure it out. He needs to cut down on his K’s drastically and has to work on getting on base more. His OBP is .278 right now, a pretty mediocre batting average. Liddi certainly has power, his .458 slugging in Tacoma shows that but like most young power hitters he has to drop his K rate to stay on the roster. I think Liddi starts off the year in AAA unless he makes big strides this off-season.

            Vinnie Catricala had never hit below .300 in the Mariners system since he started in rookie ball in 2009. This led to him being lauded as a big prospect for the M’s, that and his OPS being over 1.000 in a 2011 year split between High Desert and Jackson. He was put on the Rainiers to start the year in 2012 and struggled. He hit .229 and had an OPS of .640 in 507 at-bats. It was weird to see him struggle for a few reasons, one of them being that he had not struggled before. Another being that his K rate and BB rate were right about where they had been before in his career. Something I see is that his batting-average-on-balls-in-play dropped about .100 points. Unfortunately there is not very much data available to look at his fly ball and ground ball ratios that would help immensely in analyzing his BABIP. So for now I will just say that the Arizona Fall League will show whether this year was a random aberration of luck or whether Catricala needs another year in Tacoma. I think he will shine in the AFL but won’t make the M’s because of his limited defensive capabilities; he will probably have to shift to left field if he wants to see regular playing time.

            Francisco Martinez was acquired in the Doug Fister trade, one that is looking pretty bad for the M’s right now. Casper Wells is pretty meh and Chance Ruffin struggled in Tacoma. Martinez was supposed to be the best player acquired in that trade for us so hopefully he outperforms Ruffin and Wells. Martinez is a bit different of a 3B than normal. He is more of a speedy, average hitter versus a stocky power hitter that most third basemen are. He had 27 stolen bases this year for Jackson but only hit a pedestrian .227 with an OPS of .610. He also struck out 21% of the time. He clearly needs more seasoning before getting called up. I think he starts in Jackson and moves up when Catricala is called up to Seattle.

            I don’t know what it is about the ACC that the Mariners love, but Proscia is another product of University of Virginia (Joining Danny Hultzen and John Hicks) who saw some time in Jackson last year. He is more of a traditional third basemen in the big power mold. He spent most of his time this year in High Desert where he did what most people do in High Desert. He hit .330 with an OPS of .930 with a slugging percentage of .564. His K rate is still about 20% which is normal. Most power hitters sit around that but I would like to see him get that number around 15% before he gets to the higher levels. He should start the year in Jackson, splitting time with Martinez.

            Other names that you may want to know are Patrick Kivlehan and Jordy Lara. I have already talked about Kivlehan and his raw talent and power. Lara is not very important; he just won the best name for a third baseman in the Mariners system. There wasn’t much selection.

            Third base is a position of strength for the Mariners, mostly because of Kyle Seager. His break out season will have to be continued with Catricala and Martinez in the system but I do not see either of them replacing him next year. This is one position that is locked down, even when the M’s become contenders. It is one of the few for the team so we should enjoy it while we can.

           

           

Projecting the 2013 Rotation

By Patrick

"You think they'll resign me, ball?"

"I sure hope they resign you Hisashi."
"Me too, Moony. Go back to shortstop now."

Yes, I'm back. My absence from Way Out resulted from me going back to college and being not only very busy, but also pretty removed from the Mariners. I haven't written since Felix's Supreme Court night, which was a really long time ago. Felix was a Cy Young Candidate back then. I'm as angry about his decline as you are.

Today I want to talk about the Mariners rotation in 2013. Starting pitching is definitely the Mariners' strength from an organizational standpoint, and they have a number of developing young pitchers who could become superstars. While that is certainly a major plus, the downside of all that talent is deciding who gets a rotation spot and who doesn't, and when to cast off veterans who ultimately aren't a part of the organizations future. Jack Z has some seriously difficult decisions to make in this regard. Let's look at the possible candidates for those all-important five spots.

Current M's Rotation:

Felix Hernandez, RHP, 27 in 2013
Jason Vargas, LHP, 30 in 2013
Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP, 32 in 2013
Kevin Millwood, RHP, 38 in 2013
Blake Beavan, RHP, 24 in 2013

The two guys who are sort of in the rotation too:

Erasmo Ramirez, RHP, 23 for most of 2013
Hector Noesi, RHP, 26 in 2013

The big three:

Danny Hultzen, LHP, 23 in 2013
James Paxton, LHP, 24 in 2013
Taijuan Walker, RHP, 20 for most of 2013

Other options:
Unnamed veteran free agent
Andrew Carraway RHP, 26 for most of 2013
Charlie Furbush, LHP, 27 in 2013
Tom Wilhelmsen, RHP, 29 in 2013

OK, so that's 14 potential options. That's a lot to sift through. Let me cross off a few options right away though. The Mariners are not going to bring back Millwood. He has zero upside, and should probably retire. We can probably also rule out Wilhelmsen, who's conversion to the rotation has been discussed mostly by bloggers and radio hosts, but really isn't taken seriously by the organization. He's probably too old to make a change like that anyway, regardless of the fact that he has three solid pitches. Furbush is in a similar boat to Tommy, and probably could make a few spot starts, but is better suited to a middle relief role.

Now we have 11. I don't think the Mariners will spend money on a veteran free agent starter this year. With all of the rising youth and the potential presence of Jason Vargas and Hisashi Iwakuma, a Kevin Millwood-type pitcher won't be necessary, and that money can be used to upgrade the offense.

So that leaves ten starters within the organization with a chance to crack the rotation. Here's how I see it shaking out.

1. Felix
2. Vargas
3. Iwakuma
4. Ramirez
5. Hultzen

Let's look at this top to bottom. Felix will be the ace of the staff if he's on the Mariners. Since Jack Z will probably go all out to resign him this offseason, and Felix says he loves Seattle, he' psalmist guaranteed the top spot next spring. After Felix, it gets more complicated.

Vargas and Iwakuma both have complex contract situations that could lead to their return or exit just as easily. Iwakuma's is simple on paper. He has a one-year deal set to expire at the end of the season. But he's not a conventional free agent, since he will be a 32-year old second-year player in 2013. His asking price will probably exceed the $1.5 million he made this year, and I think the Mariners will be willing to give him a small raise because of how good he can be when healthy. His performances in the second half of this season have earned him a return to the staff.

Vargas' contract is more complicated. He made a shade under $5 million this year, and is arbitration eligible to try and increase that or possibly test free agency. I think the Mariners will be able to talk Vargas' price down, since he still relies heavily on the dimensions of Safeco Field for success. If they can sign him for under $7 million, it will be worth it for one more year. I fully expect Jason to leave in 2014 as a free agent, but until then, he'll probably hold the two-spot until one of the big three step up and take it from him.

Following the veterans, I like Ramirez to slot comfortably into the back of the rotation, where he hopefully will be for years to come. He's pitched admirably as a rookie, and probably could have stayed in the rotation most of this year if it wasn't for his elbow injury and subsequent AAA demotion. He'll impress in the spring and lockdown a spot in the top five.

Hultzen is a bit of gamble as far as projections are concerned. In June, Hultzen's arrival in the big leagues in 2012 wasn't a question of if, but one of when. But then he struggled with command in AAA, and never quite made it up I5 for any of this season. That's a bit nerve-wracking. However, using former Mariners top prospect Michael Pineda as precedence, I think Hultzen will break camp as the fifth starter and slowly climb up the rotation and be the consensus number two going into 2014.

As for the five other guys, their fates are uncertain. Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan are starting pitchers, but may only find work available in the bullpen. Noesi has done that before, but Beavan hasn't. At the same time, if Beavan breaks camp in AAA, that would kind of make him seem like a 4A player (which he is). I would say trade one or both of them, but they both came over in recent blockbuster trades, so I'm not sure if that's what Jack Z will do. That being said, I bet Noesi and Beavan both start 2013 in AAA.

And why not have the other three (Paxton, Walker, and Carraway) round out the rotation in Tacoma when the M's break camp? How great would that be for a AAA rotation. Hector Noesi might still be the worst pitcher! A rotation of Walker, Beavan, Paxton, Carraway, and Noesi would probably get the Rainiers back on track and boost confidence in the immediacy of the Mariners' playoff ascent.

At this point, next season is all that matters. The Mariners' goal in 2013 has to be to contend for a playoff spot. With that in mind, they need to do what's best for the organization, and that's resigning Vargas and Iwakuma and working Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker into the rotation as the year progresses. Go M's, and it's great to be back.

On Mike Zunino

By: Anthony

People who know me will probably tell you that I don’t like to admit to being wrong. And when Patrick told me that Mike Zunino could play in a Mariner uniform in 2013 after we drafted him I told him he was crazy. Now the hard part, Patrick could possibly, maybe, be right. Zunino has been the best hitter in the Mariners system since he was signed and he conveniently he plays catcher, a position the M’s have room for.

The Mariners catcher in 2013?

If you didn’t infer from that last sentence I don’t think Miguel Olivo will not be a Mariner next year. Something about his 26.3% K rate and his 1.5% BB rate make me think the man affectionately called Mike Olive is done. And in his place we have John Jaso, who is awesome but struggles against left handed pitchers, and Jesus Montero, who does not have a future behind the dish, unless it’s a dish of pasta (Get it? It’s funny because he is slow.) Those two could platoon next year but I don’t think that is the answer for the future. Hence the need for Zunino.

            Zunino was drafted as a sure thing behind the plate. He wasn’t projected to be a star but was going to have above average defense and power for his position. That is always a good thing, especially at catcher where offense is scarce. Zunino, like Danny Hultzen, has performed differently than scouts projected him to. We all know how good he was at Everett, earning him a call up to Jackson (A jump from A- to AA). In 15 games, a super small sample size, he has a triple slash line of .333/.386/.588. Incredible numbers, especially from a catcher in his first season of pro ball and generating some talk that he could break camp with the M’s.

            This is pretty much unheard of and as Dave Cameron of USS Mariner pointed out, Thurman Munson was the last catcher to make the MLB in his second last year. Munson played in the 1970’s so this is very rare. Something we are overlooking is that Zunino has only played half of one season in pro ball. And as we have seen from Danny Hultzen, AAA is not something that can be overlooked. And while Zunino has showed no signs of slowing down, we need to take his results with a grain of salt. I don’t like to consistently repeat what other writers have said but in the words of Jeff Sullivan, Zunino hasn’t flopped yet.

            He is going to be playing in the Arizona Fall League once Jackson’s season is over and that should get him some more at bats against quality pitchers. We should not plan on Zunino making the team out of Spring Training and the team should bring in a cheap alternative to backup Jaso and maybe Montero. But if he continues to perform in Tacoma, we will see him next year. And that is absolutely a good thing, besides the fact Patrick theoretically could be correct.

                                              

The Justin Upton Trade Potential:

By: Anthony

            There are two things I would like to say before I get into the article. First of all for those who are wondering where Patrick is and why he has not written anything recently, he is alive and well. He is at school now, like a loser (The quarter system is much better), and is writing for the school paper there. He is busy and the Mariners have not earned much of his time recently. He said he would write something soon, so look out for that maybe. Also, the Jackson Generals are in the Southern League Championship Series. It is not very consequential for the Mariners but good for them and its nice that guys like Miller, Paxton and Walker all get to experience that kind of atmosphere.

            If any reader is tracking the articles we publish, they will probably see that most of them aren’t dedicated to the big league squad right now. And there is a reason for that; they just aren’t very interesting. As much as I want to write about Carlos Triunfel striking out on three pitches or Hector Noesi getting a start, I really don’t. So we write about more interesting things, like what the team needs to do in the offseason. Something this article covers, and more specifically Justin Upton.

If only we could trade Carlos Triunfel for you straight up...

            Upton is only 24 and has already been in the MVP race once, a year ago when he placed fourth. That guy sounds awesome right? We would have to give up quite the package to get him right? Umm, well probably? The Diamondbacks aren’t happy with him and have repeatedly tried to shop him around, despite him being one of their best players. I wish I could decode this into concrete terms, but I am not a psychic, sorry to ruin that for all of you. So I have to do my best decoding into less than concrete terms.

Upton is available, unlike most 24-year-old players who have played in over 700 MLB games and played on two All-Star teams. Usually those guys are highly valued and are signed to extensions. But since the D-Backs don’t like his attitude very much, they are shopping him. What they will want in return will definitely not be cheap. We would have to part with one of the “Big Three”, or Nick Franklin along with some other prospects to get him. Like I said, it will be a steep price. If we do deal Franklin, one of our other starting prospects will have to be included. Guys like Brandon Maurer, Andrew Carraway and James Gilheeney are names that would probably be included.

That is the price of Upton, but this is what he brings to the table. He has a career slash line (average/ slugging/ on-base) of .276/.376/.473 and he fills in a corner outfield slot. He has a rare package of power and speed, not unlike his brother B.J of the Rays, (Who is going to be a free agent. Family reunion in Seattle anyone?). He has stolen over 20 bases twice and seems to be in 15-20 range pretty consistently. He is also in the 20% K rate and 10% walk rate range consistently as well. What I like about Upton is his age and his upside, once again, 24 with two all-star seasons. Unfortunately there are some red flags that aren’t just attitude related.

When I talked about Swisher, Hamilton and company and evaluated them I stressed health, consistency and cost. I have already discussed Upton’s cost, which does not help his case. Frankly, his health is not good. He has played one full season once and seems to hover about the 130 games range. Yay he is consistent! Boo that he is consistently not healthy! That is one thing I do not like about him, the second is his streakiness. In 2011, he was an animal. He hit 31 home runs, had an average of .289 and stole 21 bases. That is awesome. However, this year he has taken a step back. His K rate has gone up and his average, homers and stolen bases have all dropped. This drop is not unprecedented in his short pro career. In 2009 he hit .300/.366/.532 with 26 home runs. Then in 2010 those numbers dropped to .273/.356/.442 with only 17 home runs. So is he in line for another big year in 2013? I don’t really want to find out. He is not consistent.

Another thing I want to address is that he has been playing half of his games in Arizona, a place Jason Vargas hates with a passion. He would be moving from a great park for hitters to the death valley of Safeco Field. I do not see that playing well with his power numbers, a major reason we would be trading for him. However, Upton is still coming into his prime as a player and is only owed $38.5 million over the next 3 years.

This is a tough decision and Jack Z has shown a knack for making big trades that nobody really sees coming (Cliff Lee, Michael Pineda, etc.). But I would not support this trade if it happened as I have projected the price it. We would have to give up one of the “Big Three” and another solid prospect like Stefan Romero or Brad Miller. Upton is not healthy, is not cheap and is not consistent. If I am the Diamondbacks, I am creating a bidding war between teams like the Red Sox who need a young power hitter to rebuild around and driving his price up. Bidding wars are not good for the teams bidding and unless we can get him from the D-Backs for less than one of the “Big Three” he is not worth it. Sorry Justin, but you join Josh Hamilton on my “Please Don’t Come Here List. ” (Also there are Kevin Millwood and Cliff Pennington {I hate Cliff Pennington more than I hate an overcooked beef wellington. And I cannot stand a good beef wellington being overdone.}). Go Mariners for those who are still paying attention.

Mariners Potential Off-Season Targets

By: Anthony

Unfortunately our twitter followers were unable to suggest an idea for an article for today, I did only give them like 12 hours to do so but still. I wag my finger at you twitter followers. In other news, if you don’t follow us on twitter @Way_out_in_left for insight, article news and general comments on the Mariners. As you may be able to tell by the article title however, this post is not about our twitter account. (We wouldn’t try to pass that off as our last article of the week, {ok we might have thought about it, but then Brendan Ryan appeared to me in a dream and said “That’s a clown article bro”}). So now we move on to the actual article, you’re welcome for wasting a paragraph of your life.

                The Mariners have shown that they are going to rely on their farm system to supply the majority of their players of the future, cornerstones or building blocks if you will. Guys like “The Big Three,” Montero, Ackley, Seager, Franklin, Miller and Zunino. But that approach can only supply so much talent. Prospects can implode like a Smoak-bomb (see what I did there?). To win a world series, big free agents need to be landed and need to produce (Unlike Sexson, Richie or Figgins, Chone). The rest of this article will address potential free agents that the Mariners should and should not target this offseason.

                I will start this be eliminating a few positions that are locked down by young guys of the future, the building blocks. We don’t need a catcher, Montero and Jaso can hold down the fort till Zunino. Or maybe we sign a cheap minor league free agent to give Jaso a break. Anyway, catcher is not a place the M’s will be shopping aggressively. Shortstop, Second and Third base are all filled up to the brim, as I have detailed before. I will tentatively say that center field is filled by Franklin Gutierrez or Michael Saunders. Saunders is a solid fourth outfielder for a contender and Franklin is an all-star when he is healthy (So almost never). That combination is pretty good for center but the corner outfield has holes. Casper Wells, Eric Thames and Trayvon Robinson do not start for a contending team. They each have their own problems and at best will see some platoon action. First base is also a major problem with Smoak being horrible and Carp not being as good as last year (and injured).

                First base and corner outfield seem to be the places to add guys. Huzzah! Here are some names of people who will be free agents and play either of those positions. All of this comes from MLB Trade Rumors.

First Base (Age)-

Lance Berkman (36)
Jason Giambi (42)
Eric Hinske (35)
Casey Kotchman (30)
Carlos Lee (37)
James Loney (29)
Xavier Nady (34)
Mike Napoli (31)
Lyle Overbay (36)
Carlos Pena (35)
Ty Wigginton (35)

I removed all the players with club options for the sake of simplicity

 Centralia's Finest?

The names that interest me here are Napoli and Overbay. Napoli is a big right handed power hitter who can also catch but also strikes out a lot. He will probably be impacted by the wilds of Safeco field and suffer a bit of a power drain but he can still hit the ball a long way. Overbay is a little bit more interesting. He’s a lefty who has been all over the National League in varying roles and now is a pinch hitter for the Braves. I know that’s not a super exciting idea for a big splash free agent, but he has a history of getting on base and is more a gap power guy that could play well in Safeco. He would also be really cheap and would fill a hole and does not strike out much.  He is also from Centralia, fun fact of the day.

The first base free agent market kind of sucks, lots of old, almost washed up power hitters that I don’t see playing well in Safeco. Damn. How long till Rich Poythress is ready?

Now we move to the outfield where there are some bigger names

Left Field

Melky Cabrera (28)
Jonny Gomes (32)
Scott Hairston (33)
Josh Hamilton (32)
Eric Hinske (35)
Reed Johnson (36)
Andruw Jones (36)
Austin Kearns (33)
Carlos Lee (37)
Juan Pierre (35)
Delmon Young (27)

Right Field

Matt Diaz (35)
Kosuke Fukudome (36)
Torii Hunter (37)
Andruw Jones (36)
Xavier Nady (34)
Cody Ross (32)
Ichiro Suzuki (39)
Nick Swisher (32)

Let’s just think about this for a second, what if the M’s resigned Ichiro? What would the majority reaction be from fans? Would they be angry with management since we have been playing above average since he left or would they be happy he came back for a year? Either way, he is not going to be the answer in the outfield. Sorry.

Three names stand out to me on this list, Josh Hamilton, Melky Cabrera and Nick Swisher (How is Nick Swisher only 32? It seems like he has been in the league forever). Melky has had his trouble with testosterone, something I am not worried about for reasons I will go over in a bit. Josh Hamilton is the prize pig of this free agent class and many, including Brian Elsner of “Wait For It Seattle” are convinced he is the answer. Me, not so much.

"I might not have to face Felix anymore?" 

I like Nick Swisher, maybe it’s because he had a cameo appearance on “How I Met Your Mother” or that he has been abusing the short porch in Yankee Stadium, not unlike Safeco’s right field. I know that he is a big power/ big K guy that I typically do not like. But his consistent 20 home run seasons and OPS over .800 make him a pretty attractive target. He also will be cheaper than Hamilton and has played about 150 games a season throughout his entire career. Durability+ consistency+ left-handed power hitter is a nice recipe for success, especially in Safeco. His defense may be sub-par but with the Canadian Condor or Death to Flying Things next to him, he shouldn’t be too bad.

This is why I am not too concerned about Melky Cabrera drug testing scandal. Did anyone else know that a player can legally have up to 4 times as much testosterone in their system than a normal person? 4 times! That is ridiculous, we don’t know the specifics of Melky’s testing but he could have had 4.1 times as much testosterone and been in trouble. A guy could go a whole career at 3.99 times the normal amount and be legal. It’s crazy. So the drug thing isn’t that big a deal. He also will be dirt cheap after his suspension and was in the middle of the best season of his life. Of course there is some doubt about his stats because of the testosterone but he also hit about .300 the year before with the Royals and he is coming to the age where most MLB players hit their prime. I think he is an awesome addition. Cheap+ productive+ Prime age= Good signing.

Hey there Slugger, please don't sign with us

Josh Hamilton is one incredible story and one incredible player. He also is on the wrong side of 30 and has only played over 150 games in a season once. I know his career stats are awesome and he is still hitting the ball a long way often. But I would prefer to not spend a huge amount of money on an injury prone guy who has struck out more this year than he has in his entire career (And there are still over 20 games to play). I know people think that his production will be worth it but he will want a huge contract, lots of money and lots of years. Just like Albert Pujols got and I can guarantee you the Angels will be regretting that 10 year deal in four years. If we can get him for a four year deal, awesome. But I don’t see him not signing anything less than six years. This is his one chance to make a chunk of change and he will take advantage and I do not want to be the team paying him when he is 38 and awful. You may now argue about why I am wrong about him in the comments or on twitter.

So that is where I see the Mariners going in the off season. I know Overbay and Cabrera/Swisher isn’t going to make a huge splash and get everyone talking about us, but they will improve this offense and not drain the bank account so we can pay Felix when we have to. Go Mariners.

Danny Hultzen’s Enigmatic Season at AAA Tacoma

By: Anthony

The next Randy Johnson?

For those of you who follow the M’s, you should know the name Danny Hultzen by now. You probably know he was our top draft pick last year and you may know he was assigned to AA Jackson this year with the rest of the “Big Three.” What you may not know is that he absolutely tore up Jackson, posting an 8-3 record with an ERA of 1.19. You also may to know he was promoted to Tacoma mid-season because he was tearing up the Southern League. You may know that he has since struggled mightily in Tacoma, posting a 1-4 record with an ERA of 5.92.

            His dip in production can be attributed to fatigue after a full season or the level of competition increase in AAA. But I am not worried about those things, every pitcher faces those things at some point and most adapt and get over it. I expect Hultzen to do that. What I am worried about is his peripheral stats, or the ones that aren’t wins or ERA and that is what the majority of this article will be about.

            When Hultzen was drafted out of Virgina, he was labeled as a lower ceiling, polished starting pitcher who was supposed to be the closest to arriving in the Major Leagues. He didn’t have lights out stuff, but he had above average command, above average secondary stuff and a solid fastball. In short, he wasn’t the next Verlander but was supposed to be a good number 2 starter.

            I watched Hultzen in the Arizona Fall League after he signed last minute (literally) and was impressed. He seemed to be as advertised. In 6 games he went 19 innings and walked only 5 while striking out 18. Pretty good numbers, but it was the Arizona Fall League so the it made sense he would strike out more people. I wasn’t surprised to see him assigned to the AA squad after Spring Training, he was the most advanced of the “Big Three” but the team thought it was important to keep them together.

            In Jackson he was good, as I have already mentioned. But it was a different kind of good; he did not pitch like the command lefty with above average secondary stuff he was labeled as. He made 13 starts and went 75 innings, walking 32 and striking out 79. His K/9 and BB/9 each jumped by about 1. He was becoming more of a James Paxton than what he was billed to be. (Paxton is another member of the “Big Three” who is more of a Randy Johnson type lefty than Hultzen. That is, he strikes out guys and walks guys a lot.) These results weren’t bad, in the big picture Hultzen was still lights out, but it was a little disconcerting. Did all the draft scouts get Hultzen wrong? Was his fastball better than they thought? Was his command worse? It seemed a little odd but he still made the trip to Tacoma.

            The jump from AA to AAA is a little bigger than the jump from A to AA. In AAA there are established MLB hitters who are trying to make a roster, guys who have faced Verlander’s and Sabathia’s and have a more advanced eye. And Hultzen’s command problems got worse, along with his overall numbers. He made 12 starts for the Rainiers, going 48 innings and walking 43 and striking out 57. His BB/9 jumped up to nearly 8 and his K/99 was about 10.5. He clearly struggled with the jump in competition and all thoughts of him making an appearance in Seattle were done.

            So what exactly made Hultzen’s walk rate and K rate steadily increase with the higher he went? Something I noticed when I watched him pitch in Tacoma was his ability to focus with guys on base. I know I have ridiculed Kevin Millwood endlessly for his ability to strand runners (See side note). I remember one inning where Hultzen walked a guy on four pitches to load the bases. There was a brief meeting at the mound and the first pitch Hultzen threw after the meeting was clocked at 95, not the 92 he had been sitting at. The batter looked almost helpless at the plate. In Jackson he had a left-on-base percentage of 84%. That is, of all the runners to get on base against him, 84% of them were left on base. In the Fall League he had a LOB% of 91.8. In Tacoma he had a LOB% of 65. That is a huge drop off.

            Hultzen simply was unable to focus and step up his game with runners on. It absolutely has something to do with his lack of command, since the more guys that are on base, the more likely they will score. It could be attributed to the better competition or the mental and physical fatigue he is battling. The minor league season is long and he is in his first year still so an adjustment period is needed.

            Baseball is not an easy game but it has been so far for Danny Hultzen. I seriously doubt he has really struggled before and it is a good thing for him to go through. Now he has to learn how to get through these things. He has the talent and I’m sure the team will be working with him this winter to get him ready for a run at the 2013 rotation in Seattle.

            The question still remains about what kind of pitcher Hultzen will be. Will he revert to the polished lefty mold or will he continue down the James Paxton/ Randy Johnson mold?

Side note: Kevin Millwood’s career LOB% is 71%, the league average. Boom!

           

What the Future Holds: The Middle Infield

By: Anthony

This is part of a series of articles I will be writing on each position and the potential players who could play there next year and beyond. This will be an attempt to look at the present and future for the Mariners at each position. 

 He thinks he could punch a stegosaurus in the face

            Second base and shortstop are a little bit different than first base, strangely enough. Most middle infielders are smaller, lead-off or back of the lineup guys who are valued more for their defense than their bats. The really good second basemen and shortstops have powerful bats and play good defense but that is more a luxury than a necessity. Robinson Cano is ridiculous, Aaron Hill is surprisingly powerful, Troy Tulowitzki is super good, and Derek Jeter has managed to be super good at like 60, which is frustrating.

            Guess what is more frustrating, the Mariners giant clusterf@#$ at second base and shortstop. Many of you will say, hold on, Dustin Ackley is one of the building blocks of the franchise and he plays second base and Brendan Ryan plays incredible defense and is only a partial liability in the lineup. Well, your powers of observation are tremendous but your knowledge of the Mariners system is not. I will elaborate on that later.

            For now, the Mariners have Dustin Ackley, Muenori Kawasaki and Kyle Seager on the depth chart at second base. I am going to work backwards on the list because it makes life much simpler. Kyle Seager is supposed to be a more natural second baseman than third. But too bad, I like Seager at third and so that is where he will stay. I will elaborate on that when I write about the hot corner. Muenori Kawasaki is a great dancer, has an awesome mustache but cannot hit. He is a utility infielder and really doesn’t factor into the future. Sorry Mune.

            Brendan Ryan is pretty firmly entrenched at shortstop and I would like to see him resigned for a few more years. He is one of a few veterans and a leader in the clubhouse who is also hilarious. He is actually one of the more valuable players on the team right now because of his ridiculous defense. He can stay.

            Dustin Ackley has been getting a lot of attention this year because his offense has dropped off significantly. It is never good to have a future building block of your franchise hit .231 in his second year after hitting .273 in his rookie year. Recently it seems like Ackley has been hitting the ball hard and the major drop in his average can be seen in his large drop in his bating average with balls in play. I think Dustin turns it around and he plays really good defense. He will hang around there for now.

            Some of you may be wondering, hold on, why is there a clusterf@#$ at second base and short? That seems like a pretty simple situation. Well the clusterf@#$ forms when the minor leagues are examined. There are at least three guys who could realistically play second base or shortstop for the Mariners in the system and a few younger guys who could challenge these prospects. Nick Franklin, Brad Miller and Stefan Romero are all highly regarded prospects. And they all can play the middle infield. Miller and Franklin play shortstop now but many, including myself, have speculated that they cannot stay at short. Their defense isn’t very good and they would be more suited at second. Stefan Romero also plays second base.

Why must you be so good?

             

Brad Miller was drafted out of Clemson and is in his second year in the system. Last year he destroyed A ball, hitting .415 with an OPS of .986. He earned a promotion to High Desert where he dropped off a little bit. He still hit .337 with an OPS of over .900. So it wasn’t really that big of a drop off. I mean, I guess .327 isn’t too bad. He earned a promotion up to AA Jackson and dropped off again. Except this drop off was only .010 points on his batting average. For those who missed the day in kindergarten, he is hitting .327 and his OPS is still .849. These statistics mean a lot more in AA Jackson than in A ball. He is still striking out about 15% of the time and has a BB percentage of 13.7%. Did I mention he is also 23 and will probably start 2013 in Tacoma? So that’s one candidate for SS/2B.

You should eat a Big Mac Nick, or 5

             

Nick Franklin is closer to the major leagues than Miller and is in AAA Tacoma. For the few of you who follow me on twitter, you will know that he weighs probably 160 dripping wet holding a 50-pound dinosaur fossil. So besides the fact he is a stick, he somehow still can destroy the ball. He is only 22, is hitting .250 and has an OPS of .742. Something I am concerned about is that his K rate is 25% and his walk rate is 7%. We all know how high K rates in Tacoma translate to Seattle, (See Peguero, Carlos) so he absolutely must lower that number to be successful in Seattle. Franklin’s defense is not exceptional in the few times I have seen him in person so second base is definitely an option. That’s option number two and he could make an appearance in Seattle in 2013.

            The final middle infielder in the upper echelons of the farm system is Stefan Romero. Romero arrived on the scene this year and is putting up some crazy numbers. Scouts don’t seem to like him a lot, but he is still the best hitter on Jackson numerically. He started the year in High Desert, the hitter’s paradise, and took full advantage. He hit .357 in the California league with an OPS of .972. He earned himself a call up to Jackson and in 48 games there has hit .339 with an OPS of .997. Yes you are reading that right, he went from an extreme hitter friendly league to AA and his OPS went up, boosted by his slugging percentage of .607. Romero is a true second baseman and if he keeps hitting like this, room will have to be made for him in Tacoma or Seattle. He may be able to switch to the outfield, but then again so could Dustin Ackley.

            In the lower tiers of the system there is still some quality talent that could make some noise. Christopher Taylor is a very interesting name, and he is a very interesting player. He plays shortstop but as you can tell, that does not mean he will stick there. Daniel Paolini has a cool name and is pretty meh otherwise.

            So I will now lay this clusterf@#$ out in front of you. Dustin Ackley and Brendan Ryan play second base and shortstop respectively now in Seattle. Brad Miller and Nick Franklin each play shortstop now and should develop into much better hitters than Ryan. However, if they cannot stick at short, they will shift over to second base. Hoping that only one of them has to shift over, that would mean Ackley would have to change positions. Probably going to the outfield. Oh right, and then Stefan Romero also plays second base. So we have 2 positions that two players are playing at now. And three guys in the minor leagues who can fill in those two positions. Ryan can be put in a reserve role without too much fuss. Ackley may have to move to the outfield to accommodate Miller, Franklin or Romero. That’s some super complicated stuff that hopefully will be resolved in time and with the offense improved. Clusterf@#$ indeed.