Five Lessons From The Trade Deadline

By Patrick

Eric Thames, the Mariners' most notable acquisition

Alas, the July 31st MLB non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone. While the Mariners didn't make any moves right before 1:00 PM PST, they made three significant trades in the week before the deadline. The first was the highly publicized Ichiro deal, which sent the former Mariner superstar to the New York Yankees for AAA RHP DJ Mitchell and AAA RHP Danny Farquhar. The other two trades went down last night after the Blue Jays game. The M's sent Steve Delabar to Toronto in exchange for OF Eric Thames in yet another clubhouse-switching deal (The Jays are in town now, so Thames just had to switch jerseys). The final trade of the week sent Brandon League to the Dodgers in exchange for AA RHR Logan Bawcom and High-A center fielder Leon Landry.

So in summary, not a whole lot of guarantees, but the M's did clear out a lot of players that weren't helping this season and weren't going to be a part of the future of the organization. My initial thoughts on all three were positive, since combined Ichiro, League, and especially Delabar helped us very little, and yet we got trade value for them. None of the prospects the M's got in return scream huge value, but they're all potentially pieces, and Eric Thames is a major league baseball player, albeit a so far below-average one. Here are the five things I learned from the moves the Mariners made over the last week.

1. There's a plan in place

If you had told me ten days ago, that the Mariners would trade Ichiro to the Yankees, I would have either completely disregarded you or punched you in the face, depending on how negative I was feeling about Ichiro at the time and depending on how mad at you I was. I was under the impression that the organization was too chicken to move Ichiro, or even dare to not re-sign him in the offseason. But whether they were going to re-sign him or not, he asked to be traded, and the organization honored his request. For me, that said that Jack Z has a plan, and the organization allowed him to execute it. Unless he's not the GM we think he is, there's no way Ichiro was in his plans past 2012. Jack has a plan, and he's sticking to it.

The same goes for the Brandon League and Steve Delabar moves. The Mariners had invested in League to be their closer, and he showed that he couldn't do it effectively enough. So they shipped him out for potentially helpful prospects. Steve Delabar wouldn't stop giving up big home runs and sucking in general, so Jack Z cut him lose and grabbed a major league outfielder. There's a plan, and Jack is executing it without ownership interfering.

2. That being said, Jack Z won't just make trades for the sake of acquiring more pieces

Imagine that you also told me that the Mariners would trade three players in the week leading up to this year's deadline and then asked me to guess which ones got moved. I would have said Jason Vargas, Brandon League, and Kevin Millwood. I would have been one for three. Jason Vargas probably had the most trade value of any truly available Mariner, but in the end it didn't make sense to let him go. He had too much value to the current and future (contract extension?) team, and the rotation would have been screwed without him. I'm not sure why Millwood didn't go somewhere, but clearly the package wasn't good enough for him. That's fine. Jack Z needs to make trades to help the team, not just trades for the sake of trades. I think he made the right moves, and making more than three moves might have shown a little too much desperation.

3. The Mariners are still trying to get younger


Ichiro shipped out for a pair of 25-year olds, Steve Delabar becomes a 25-year old outfielder, and Brandon League becomes two players who were in A-ball this season. Essentially, even more youth. Throw in that the corresponding moves brought Trayvon Robinson, Steven Pryor, and Carter Capps up to the MLB squad, and the focus is clear: youth is being served. For the remainder of 2012, that's OK. The Mariners are out of the playoff hunt and should use the remaining two months of the season to help bring along the kids. But by next season, they need some solid veterans in place that can pick up the slack when the young guys falter.

4. Some Mariners "veterans" may be up for contract extensions soon


Jack didn't trade Jason Vargas, even though he was linked to like seven different teams this week and could have brought back some value. He didn't trade Brendan Ryan, whose bat has been coming around lately and should certainly win an AL Gold Glove for his defense. Do the M's finally have some veteran players who can help the team win? It seems like the organization feels Ryan and Vargas can do just that. Sure, the M's have James Paxton, Danny Hultzen, and Taijuan Walker all waiting to join the rotation next season, and they have Nick Franklin and Brad Miller showing huge promise at shortstop. But maybe Jack had to look beyond the "potential" of these guys in the minors and focus on what he has in Vargas and Ryan. He has a solid and consistent number three starter in Vargas who keeps his ERA in the mid-threes and has the team lead in wins, and not because of insane run support. He also has the best defensive player in all of baseball at shortstop, who is totally acceptable if he hits .240 out of the nine hole. Instead of stressing through more rookie development, Jack may decide to commit to players who don't need to develop, since they are already known entities.

5. Felix is ours, and you can't have him


Another sub-.500 trade deadline gone, yet Felix Hernandez remains a Mariner. The Diamondbacks were apparently working on a huge blockbuster trade for  a starting pitcher this morning, but that didn't pan out. Could it have been Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer for Felix? Maybe. But who cares? Felix is a Mariner, and all of that speculation and "the Mariners need to trade him" shit is just that, shit. Because Felix Hernandez is now the only icon this team has. He's the best player, the most-liked player, the most-watched player, and the most exciting player. And he's ours. And you can't have him. Great job Jack Z. Go M's.

The New Blake Beavan: Black Forest Ham

By Anthony

I am assuming everyone has a different kind of taste buds and I will not claim to be an expert in different kinds of ham, but a quick Google search says that black forest ham is the best. I am not saying that Blake Beavan is the best, and is nowhere near close to being the best. But after being recalled from Tacoma on July 17^th, Beavan has put up these numbers- 20.2 innings, 2.03 ERA, 14 K’s and one walk. Yeah, the same Blake “The Ham Sandwich” Beavan is all of a sudden somewhat interesting. Or at least he is not as boring as he was. Honestly, even a ham sandwich would get more interesting over time, just because of the different kinds of mold that would grow but Blake is more interesting than weird colored molds. I’ll take you through what Blake is doing differently since going down I-5. 

These are Blake’s basic numbers before he went down: 56.1 innings, 6.55 ERA, 30 K’s, 11 walks, 12 HR’s. Those are bad, like Hector Noesi bad. However, something that I care about more, and will tell us more is what happened with each of his pitches individually. He pitches to contact and used the huge outfield in Safeco to his advantage with fly balls. Pitch-wise, this is what he did.

Pitch	Strike %	Whiff %	Velocity
Fastball	69	6	91
Curveball	55	8	75
Slider	65	10	80
Changeup	49	4	82

Want to know why Blake Beavan is not interesting? Look at those whiff percentages. All of those are under league average. He doesn’t strike out a bunch of guys and doesn’t miss a bunch of bats. That limits his ceiling immensely. So these numbers are what he has been doing lately.

Pitch	Strike %	Whiff %	Velocity
Fastball	72.5	8	91.5
Curveball	68	5	74.3
Slider	56	12	80.6
Changeup	28.6	0	80.9

Hmmmm…. So that isn’t really helpful. Those numbers are very similar and don’t really tell us too much. I then decided to look at where he is releasing the ball.

This is a look at Blake’s release point. The top was at the start of the year; the bottom is what he has been doing recently.

This spread is definitely amplified by the sheer number of pitches he threw before he was sent down but the difference is still noticeable. He is releasing his ball closer to the plate as well as lower than before. If you look closely you can see that his curveball is the only thing that is consistently released above six feet from the ground. Since he is releasing lower to the ground, it is giving his breaking pitches some new movement that is making them better.

At the start of the year, Blake’s slider was dropping about 0.8 inches and moving away from right handed hitters 4.45 inches more than if it was thrown without spin. This is more of a sweeping slider that is clearly different than his curveball, which broke down 5.6 inches and away from righties 6.6 inches. Now, Blake’s slider has more drop to it and doesn’t break away as much. It now drops 2.5 inches and 3.69 inches horizontally. His curve drops 5 inches and 6.3 inches horizontally. His new slider is missing more bats, albeit by a small margin. He is striking out more batters than before and this new movement on his slider is one of the reasons why. 

I will say that his three starts have come against the Royals twice and once against the Rays. Neither are very potent offenses, even though Beavan gave up five runs to the Royals one time around. Still, he has won three games in his three starts back and has been generating more groundballs and strikeouts than before. His new release point is a large part of that and while it may not be enough to let him hang around next year, Beavan should improve from his earlier numbers. 

Wow, I never really thought I would talk about Blake Beavan for that long. I don’t think anyone ever plans on talking about Blake Beavan for this long. To reward those of you who have dedicated this much time and effort to read about Blake Beavan, I will reveal something new about Jason Vargas. Guess what!! Apparently the Red Sox have mild interest in him. That’s so much more than you knew before! Aren’t you so glad you read this far? I totally am so glad I wrote this much. Go Mariners, and go Black Forest Ham.

Bruce Chen, Mariner Killer

By Patrick

This picture seemed appropriate

How awesome is it that we're still playing the Royals? It's easy money for a dominant team like the Mariners. Who's pitching today? Probably another dominating win, let me just look…OH MY GOD NOOOOOOO! NOT BRUCE CHEN! ANYONE BUT BRUCE CHEN! 

I'm sorry. I got a little carried away there. That is my natural reaction to Bruce Chen pitching against the Mariners though. He's really, really good against us. It just scares me. But most of my reactions to Mariner-related stuff is instinctive, and not necessarily based in fact. So I'm going to take this time to see whether my immense fear of Bruce Chen is factual, or just based on some isolated memories. Disclaimer: I'm writing this on the fly, and don't know whether I'll be right or not.

A few things that jump out to me right away on his Baseball Reference page. First, he's represented by Scott Boras. How rich is Scott Boras? He represents all of the best baseball players and draft picks every year, and still has time for Bruce Chen. Secondly, I didn't realize Chen has been in the majors for 15 years. That's absurd to me. I don't think I'd ever heard of him until about three years ago. I may have guessed seven years pro at most. I would have been way wrong. 

For reference to when we get to the Mariners part, Bruce Chen has career numbers of 67-66 with a 4.61 ERA. Not terrible. Not anything special though. That's about how I feel about Bruce Chen not against the Mariners. 

OK, here come the stats against the Mariners. Bruce Chen has appeared against the Seattle Mariners 12 times in his major league career. Eight of those 12 appearances were starts. In those games, he holds a 4-0 record with a 3.10 ERA in 58.0 innings pitched. He has 37 strikeouts in those 58 innings. 

Alright, so what did those basic stats say? The most important part of that last paragraph for me is the record. Bruce Chen has simply never lost to the Seattle Mariners. So my perception of him as a Mariner killer looks pretty good there. His ERA against the Mariners is also significantly better than his career ERA. A whole 150 points better. So just looking at the common numbers, Bruce Chen does pitch better against the Mariners than he theoretically should. 

Other interesting stats that help my point. Bruce Chen has 4 career complete games. In 15 years. He doesn't throw then all too often. He has one of those against the Mariners. He has a pretty low career K/BB ratio, since he's not a huge strikeout guy and walks about a league average amount of hitters. He has a 3.36 K/BB against the Mariners, which is his fourth highest number against any team. He also has a 1.15 WHIP against the M's in his career, which is pretty damn good. That WHIP is his sixth best against any team. 

Here's a stupid meaningless fact that I could somehow spin to help my point: Bruce Chen has two career saves. One is against the Mariners. Boom. He dominates us. 

Bottom line about Bruce Chen, he is a bonafide Mariner killer. Bruce Chen really isn't a very good pitcher. He's league average. But against the Mariners, he's a stud, significantly better than against an average opponent. So I'm going to continue to freak out, and will do so in the near future anytime I see KC-Chen on the probables list. Go M's, beat Chen. 

A Tribute to Jason Vargas

By Patrick

Jason Vargas said five words to me. "Sure thing," and "No prob buddy." Strangely, that was enough to make him my favorite Mariner. When I had a chance run in with him and his family at the Interbay Red Mill, I didn't know whether to ask for his autograph or not. It's not like Jason Vargas is the most recognizable guy. He looks pretty regular in person. He's like six feet tall maybe, and looks like a pretty regular Italian-American guy nearing thirty. It's hard to say whether a guy like Jason tries to blend in or enjoys being recognized, since back in early 2011 when this happened, he was still the number three or four starter.

But he signed my little napkin, and that still remains tacked to the corner of my Mark McLemore poster in my bedroom (side note: after the Ichiro trade, I official have zero posters of current Seattle athletes. McLemore, Mike Cameron, Griffey, Jamie Moyer, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Shaun Alexander, and Matt Hasselbeck are all gone). Jason Vargas has been my favorite Mariner since, and that's why I was a little said after I left Safeco last night, knowing that Jason may have thrown his last pitch in a Mariner uniform.

If that was the last time Jason Vargas pitches for the Mariners, I'll be proud of him. Before the season, everyone doubted that Jason could make the transition to consistent top of the rotation type starter. He has his great ups, but also had his awful downs. He needed to develop a certain sense of consistency. With the exception of one start, he has allowed between one and five runs in every start in 2012, compared to 11 outside that range in 2011. Jason Vargas earned the title Mr. Consistency. 

And that consistency boosted his numbers. In 2011, even with all of those incredible shutout starts, Vargas still went just 10-13 with a 4.25 ERA. Now, with all of his new found consistency, Jason set a new personal best for wins in a season. At the end of July. Yeah, consistency is a good thing. Jason is 11-7 with a 3.76 ERA in 2012. He has yet to take the hill and allow zero runs in a start. Yet, his numbers have dwarfed that of last seasons', when he did that five times. Again, Mr. Consistency.

If that was the last time Jason Vargas pitches for the Mariners, I'll be bummed out. We watched Jason develop into a viable major league pitcher for four years. His transition from borderline back end guy to sometimes great sometimes awful, to steady mid-rotation starter has been a rare opportunity to smile over the past four years. Plus who doesn't love seeing that teal throw back shirt every five days?

If Jason truly is done with the Mariners, he won't be remembered as a super starter, because he really wasn't. But outside of Felix, Vargas has given Mariner fans and players a constancy over the past four years that doesn't exist a lot of times in a rebuilding process. Going into this season, the rotation consisted of Felix and who knows what else. At least as we near the trade deadline, the rotation has morphed into Felix, Vargas, and who knows what else. 

Regardless of whether Jason Vargas throws another pitch in a Mariner uniform, I'll always remember him as the guy who came out every five days and worked hard, never missed a start, always ate innings, and seemed to pitch pretty well in the end. It will be a shame if Jason gets moved by the deadline, because he could really help young lefties like Paxton and Hultzen learn what it's like to be a mayor leaguer. I'm going to miss you Jason. Go M's.

MLB Trade Rumors Part 3: Stuff Starts to Happen

By Anthony

So now that Ichiro is gone and we have all talked about it and blogged about it, we can move on to more interesting things. Like more trade rumors! Wooo!!! I love speculation and guessing! 

An update on Jason Vargas. It seems like the Braves are attempting to acquire Ryan Dempster from the Cubs but have to outbid the Dodgers. I have heard the Dodgers are close to a deal but the Braves could still make a move. And since Jack Z has shown no hesitation in getting more pitching for the farm system, anyone of either teams prospects could be acquired. I remain high on first baseman Joe Terdoslavich and am hoping a package deal of Vargas and Wilhelmsen is enough to pry him away from Atlanta. From the Dodgers system, which is worse than Atlanta’s, I like Tim Federowicz, a catcher with excellent defense and a below average bat. Too bad there’s this guy Mike Zunino around hitting home runs all over the place. Outfielder Alfredo Silverio is a nice bat and he is hitting over .300 in AA right now. If the Dodgers don’t move him, Joc Pederson is another option in the outfield.

I will give you two players here to help understand the trade value of Jason Vargas.

Player A: 7-9, 6.13 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.79 ERA, 29.9% flyballs and 0.90 HR/9

Player B: 10-7, 5.93 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 3.91 ERA, 40.6% flyballs and 1.63 HR/9

The Pittsburgh Pirates recently acquired Player A for three of their top 15 prospects. While that sounds like a good thing, the Pirates system isn’t very good somehow and the three have been projected as an average outfielder, a potential #5 starter and a groundballing reliever. Not the best take for a trade deadline acquisition of a veteran lefty starter. Player A is Wandy Rodriguez and player B is Jason Vargas. If the Astros only got an average hitter, a back end starter and a reliever and I like Wandy more than Jason. They have very similar number but for Vargas’ home run problem and that he pitches in Safeco. With Ryan Dempster being linked to the Dodgers, it seems like the Braves are leading the way as suitors for Vargas.

I am still confused about the lack of buzz about Tom Wilhelmsen. He is cheap, he has very low mileage on his arm, he has started throwing a changeup and has an awesome curve. Oh right and he also throws 95. The third pitch addition is nice, especially when it makes Hideki Matsui look ridiculous. Some are thinking about Wilhemsen converting to a starter. It could work out, like Chris Sale. Or blow up like Daniel Bard. Getting back on track, Wilhelmsen isn’t getting too much attention and he should be. Young, cheap and good closers that could become starters are few and far between. 

Kevin Millwood rumors do not exist. I wish they did, but for some reason, no team wants an old, injury prone below average pitcher. I can’t imagine why. So in lieu of informing you about the non-existent rumors, I will make up my own. The Minnesota Twins have been linked to Millwood and have offered a batch of warm brownies and a glass of cold milk. The offer of a free back rub from Ozzie Guillen from the Marlins is still on the table. The offer I like the most is from the Orioles who offered us a monopoly get out of jail free card and an old file cabinet. Whoever Jack Z sees as the best suitor, it seems like he will pull the trigger soon. Millwood is only taking up space and unlike a file cabinet, he cannot store papers inside of him. 

I do enjoy reading MLB trade rumors; the ridiculous hypothetical trades I see can be really tantalizing but can also be really dumb. For instance, the Mariners have been linked to Hanley Ramirez. Really? I cannot see that happening at all. Why would he want to come to the opposite side of the country, to a better league and a park that kills offense? And why would we want him when we have Brad Miller in AA and Nick Franklin in AAA and would have to give up one of the big three pitchers. And right on cue Ramirez is traded to the LA Dodgers. Something to look at here is that he will block Dee Gordon in LA who now may be available for a trade. Gordon isn’t the best contact hitter but he has wheels and is young. Could be an interesting guy to at least look at.

Not much has happened besides that one thing that happened, and hopefully Jack Z needs a get out of jail free card this week when he plays monopoly with his kids. Jason Vargas and Tom Wilhelmsen will hopefully be moved and go to a place that is sunnier or more humid. Preferably more humid and with more Coca-Cola and CNN. Go M’s.

Mariners Make Moves

By Patrick

Welcome back, friends

Unless you live under a rock, you know by now that Ichiro has been traded to the Yankees in return for pitching prospects. What you may have missed is the other move yesterday, which happened after the game. Everyone's favorite Mendoza Line hitting first baseman, Justin Smoak, was optioned to AAA Tacoma after vastly underachieving so far in 2012.

In order to replace Ichiro and Justin at the major league level, Jack Z had to move two players back up from AAA. He chose to replace Smoak at first by re-activating Mike Carp from the DL. Carp, who has been hurt twice this season, will play a ton more first base than he has previously this season, when he featured more commonly in left field. That move apparently is in efforts to keep his arm healthy. Good call. He's hitting seventh tonight against Freddy Garcia and the Yankees.

To replace Ichiro, the Mariners predictably called up their best remaining AAA outfielder, Trayvon Robinson. Every Mariner fan who cared enough to watch in August last year will remember Trayvon for the sparks that he caused in his first week, robbing a homer against the Angels and hitting a few himself. Any Mariner fan who cared enough to watch in late August and through September will remember Trayvon for his horrid .211 batting average and 40% strikeout rate. Hopefully, he worked on that a lot in Tacoma and came up with a new approach at the plate. Something interesting about his new approach is that he stole 9 bases all of last season in AAA and in the bigs but this year has stolen 19 already. He's learning to use his speed, which will make him even more valuable than if he just fixed his strikeout problem.

Overall, I'm excited to see the Starfish and Trayvon back, but more excited to see how the M's will move on from Ichiro. They have a renewed sense of flexibility in their lineup, since they don't have to worry about a diva veteran that has to hit in the top three of the order at all times regardless of numbers. The post-Ichiro era has begun, and boy, am I excited. Go M's.

The Ichiro Trade: That Just Happened

By Anthony

Really, really weird

So yeah, Ichiro is now wearing pinstripes and apparently he asked to be traded a few weeks ago. I don’t know how that affects his legacy here but whatever. Unlike Patrick who texted me “Who Cares Ichiro is Gone.” I actually looked at whom we got and am not really sure what to think. They are D. J. Mitchell and Danny Farquhar, both right handed pitchers. 

Yes. The same team that has some of the best pitching prospects in the league and desperately needs hitting traded for more pitching. That’s like being trapped on a desert island with an unlimited supply of food and in desperate need for water. Then a plane flies by and drops a parcel of food to you, except the pilot knows that you have unlimited food. And that pilot is Jack Z. I haven’t been trapped on a desert island in the same predicament I described, but if I was, I would be pissed off. Damn it Jack Z! We need hitting! 

D. J. Mitchell is pretty easy to figure out compared to Danny Farquhar. Mitchell is a 6-2 starter who went 85 innings in 14 games in AAA. His ERA was 5.04, which is not good, he averaged 7.5 K’s and 3 walks per nine innings, also not great. He has a sinker that he uses quite a bit and generates quite a few ground balls. I can see him as kind of a Hector Noesi but without the home run problem. Some comparisons I have seen link him to Chien-Ming Wong because of the sinker, remember Wong was once a frontline starter for the Yankees. Mitchell is in Tacoma and may see some time in Seattle once rosters expand. I hope he develops into a back of the rotation guy after the big three make it to Seattle.

I read a scouting report on Danny Farquhar. Know what is weirder than his name? The way he pitches. When facing right-handed batters, Farquhar is a side armer with a sweeping slider and a fastball that sits around 90. Against righties that is good. Against lefties though, the right-handed side arm thing isn’t very good. So Farquhar throws over the top. Am I the only one who thinks this is ridiculous? Good pitchers are supposed to have consistent mechanics. I have never heard of a guy who intentionally is inconsistent. His results of course have shown this. He has bounced around from Oakland to Toronto to New York. He too will show up in Tacoma and may be in Seattle for September. I really do want to watch the Farquhar show when he pitches in Seattle, just like I love watching Carlos Peguero.  The entertainment factor would be like watching Munenori Kawasaki sing karaoke with Jackie Chan. 

That’s whom we got in exchange for Ichiro and money. So for all of you are off celebrating the end of the Ichiro era with Patrick, take a glance here and see our returns. If your excitement is not tempered, I guess you really hate Ichiro. 

Ichiro Traded to the Yankees

By Patrick

Bye Bye Buddy

Holy shit. Ichiro has been traded to the New York Yankees for right handed pitchers DJ Mitchell and Danny Farquhar, according to almost every baseball source there is, including the Mariners. The Mariners have given the Yankees significant cash, per Ken Rosenthal.

My immediate reaction is "WOWWWWWWWWWWWWWW THIS IS AWESOME." But that being said, I don't know anything about Mitchell or Farquhar, or the details of the cash the M's paid the Yankees.

DJ Mitchell is 6-4 with a 5.04 ERA so far this season in 14 AAA starts. He has 72 strikeouts against 29 walks and has a .261 batting average against. He's 6 feet, 160 pounds, went to Clemson, and is 25.

Danny Farquhar has pitched in three major league games and really sucked, so he's been in the minors mostly. In 208 minor league appearances he's 14-17 with a 3.06 ERA. This season, he's 2-3 with a 3.33 ERA in 32 games. He's a reliever, with zero career starts, and apparently he's a sidearm guy. Should be interesting.

Regardless, Ichiro is gone. The Mariners have his contract off the books for good, and nobody can re-sign him or anything stupid like that. The organization has moved on like we all knew they should, but thought they wouldn't. Good for Jack Z, but even better for Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln. Maybe we don't have to trade them after all. More to come later.

Our First Podcast!

By Patrick and Anthony

We decided to do a podcast. It went pretty well, and we talked about general Mariners stuff, including trade deadline and optimal lineups. We also talked about our favorite Mariners and burgers. Enjoy! http://podcastmachine.com/podcasts/13832/episodes/71155

Trade Deadline Speculaton Part 2: Slightly More Insight

By Anthony

So this is a continuation of the series on the Mariners and the trade deadline. If it seems like this is all we are talking about here, it’s because that is the only interesting thing about the team right now. That may be an exaggeration, but do we really want to talk about how Blake Beavan is back or that Jonathan Sanchez is terrible? I do not. So we continue with the rampant speculation and guessing. As opposed to the last version, there are actually some rumors swirling versus sheer speculation.

On the Jason Vargas front, Patrick already kind of covered it. I don’t think Vargas will garner the same returns as Doug Fister because of his home run problem and the insane impact Safeco has had on fly balls this year. The Orioles are rumored to be kicking the tires on Jason, and since Jason Hammel is out for a bit, this would make sense. The back of the Orioles rotation is also terrible so that also lends itself to the rumor. The Tigers have also been linked to Vargas who could reunite with Doug Fister in Motown. From what I have seen, it seems like Vargas wouldn’t garner much by himself but as Patrick mentioned hopefully we could package in some relief help like Brandon League or Shawn Kelley and get some prospects.

Going with the reliever trend, Tom Wilhelmsen should be getting some attention from teams. I have heard the Mets, Marlins and White Sox are looking for some bullpen help. The Heath Bell disaster in Miami needs fixing so that would make some sense. The Mets have been linked to Royals closer Jonathan Broxton so it is not too much of a stretch to see them also looking at Wilhelmsen. The White Sox need some help as well and these three clubs could get desperate and end up giving away some top of the line talent for the cheap and dominant Bartender.

Brendan Ryan was linked to the Atlanta Braves, once their shortstops, including Jack Wilson, both were injured, but then they went out and signed and even more light hitting shortstop. What I am hoping for with Ryan is that some team looks at his awesome defense and thinks that they need that for the last innings of a playoff game and we can flip him for something of value. Of course, this then raises the issue of who plays shortstop next year. I am telling you right now, Muenori Kawasaki, despite being a super awesome guy, is not a major league hitter. Maybe Nick Franklin gets the nod, even though I don’t think he sticks at short in the future. Maybe we get a guy in free agency like Stephen Drew, which I would like.

Of course, all of these are rumors and the situation is more fluid than superfluid liquid helium, the least viscous liquid in the world. So keep paying attention to the wild and crazy speculative tweets and articles and rumors. If nothing else, it is fun to imagine Brendan Ryan winning a World Series with an average under the Mendoza line. 

Deal or No Deal: Jason Vargas

By Patrick

Wow. I haven't written for my own blog in like three weeks. I guess I just needed a little break. The frequency of those previews was killing me. But I'm back now, and I'd like to talk about a subject near and dear to my heart, and that's Jason Vargas.

Jason has logged four seasons as a Mariner starting pitcher since coming over from the Mets in December 2008. In those four years, the lefty has a 31-38 record with a 4.17 ERA and 387 strikeouts. He posted a low ERA of 3.78 in 2010, and he won ten games for the first time in his career last year, a number he should well surpass this season. 

Speaking of which, let's look at Jason so far in 2012, which is what counts when we're talking trades. Jason has a career best (if he keeps it up) 9-7 record with a pretty solid 4.09 ERA. His numbers really show off the consistency he has put forth in 2012. Jason has zero shutouts in 2012, having allowed an earned run in everyone of his 20 starts. He's only had one truly awful start, which game on June 20 at Arizona (10 runs, nine hits, all bad). Throwing out that start, Jason had allowed between one and five runs in every single start. That level of consistency is a new element to Jason's game that he has really brought along in 2012. 

Comparatively, he had six scoreless starts in 2011. But at the same time, he had five starts where he allowed more than five runs. So far in 2012, to review, those number are zero and one. So consistency has been the key to transforming Vargas into a passable number two starter. It has also contributed in teams like the Tigers (who went fishing for Doug Fister last year at the deadline and succeeded) and the Cardinals reportedly taking interest in acquiring Vargas for late season help. 

Another reason teams want Vargas is for his propensity to eat innings. In 20 starts this year, Jason has gone six innings in 17 of them. By comparison, Adam Wainwright, one of the Cards' top starters, lasted six innings just 11 times in 18 starts. Moreover, Max Scherzer, a mid-rotation arm for the Tigers, has a similar 11 six plus innings starts over his 18 starts. So Jason Vargas throws more innings per start than a typical above average major league pitcher. 

So what kind of haul could Jason Vargas bring? The trade that jumps out at me as precedent is the Doug Fister trade of 2011, especially if the M's are once again dealing with Detroit. Packaging Vargas with a decent reliever like Shawn Kelley could draw a similar haul to the Casper Wells, Francisco Martinez, Charlie Furbush, and Chance Ruffin that the Fister deal drew. Package Vargas with Brandon League or Tom Wilhelmsen, and the return should be even greater. 

Overall, Jason Vargas is a consistent left-handed pitcher that teams looking to make a late standings charge in August and September could definitely use. The Mariners should trade him for young players that can continue to fill the system with talent. I'll miss Jason, since he has been probably my favorite Mariner over the last two years, but sometimes it's just time, and his time is in the next two weeks. Go M's.

What I would do if I was the GM

By Anthony

Anthony, for purposes of this article

These are the moves that I would make right now if I was in the Mariners front office. I will only be doing some internal moves, since there are roughly a billion trade possibilities and since I am not the actual GM with hundreds of scouts, I do not know who the M’s are and are not looking at. 

Move Number One:

Option Justin Smoak to AAA Tacoma and recall 1B/DH Luis Jimenez. I want to be clear, this is not a punishment for Smoak. This is a chance for him to figure out his swing in a lower stress environment. Smoak needs to relax at the plate, he has the talent, but he needs to get his head in the right spot and be relaxed in the box. Hopefully some time down I-5 will give him that and allow him to find his stroke. Luis Jimenez is Tacoma’s best hitter but he has never been successful in the MLB. We might as well give him shot its not like the offense can get much worse. He will split time at first  and DH with Jesus Montero and Mike Carp.

Move Number 1.5

This is something I hinted at earlier. Give Jesus Montero some time at first base. Everyone says he is not a full time catcher and with Mike Zunino in the system, it appears the M’s agree. This will give him some practice at first while allowing both his and Jimenez’s bat in the order.

Move Number 2

Cut Chone Figgins and recall Mike Carp: This move is obvious. I think we would have to pay teams to take him off our hands right now and I would much rather just get rid of him. He is a waste of a roster spot and the worst player on the team right now. This has been a long time coming. Carp has been hitting the ball hard in his rehab stint and he will get more time in the field with Smoak in Tacoma. Carp will also fill in left field when Ichiro gets less playing time, like he should.

Move Number 3

Assuming and praying that either Millwood or Vargas gets moved at the deadline. Move to a six-man rotation that includes Felix, Iwakuma, Ramirez, Millwood/Vargas, Beavan and Andrew Carraway, if both those two get moved, then it will be a five man. But Andrew Carraway has earned this spot. He was the number one starter at the start of the year in Jackson, ahead of the big three, and he has continued to find success in Tacoma. Lets see what the kid can do in the Majors.

Move Number 4

Bench Dustin Ackley for a series. He looks overmatched, that much is clear. The solution to that problem is not continuing to let him struggle. I like the move of him into the leadoff spot, it changes things up and maybe will get him going. Assuming that fails, giving him some days off will hopefully allow him to refocus and rediscover his stroke. This offense needs Dustin hitting the way he did last year and we may need to get desperate. 

Trade Deadline Predictions

By Anthony

Well the time of year has come again, time for teams to decide whether to be contenders or wave the flag of surrender and build for the future, time for teams to become buyers and sellers. For those of you who have been living underneath a mountain with their eyes closed humming to themselves all year, the Mariners will be sellers. This article is going to explore who we have to trade, to whom we can trade to and whom we can expect in return. 

The Options to Trade

Jason Vargas

This is going to break Patrick’s heart but he is probably our best option to move and get some legitimate prospects in return. He may have been an inconsistent lefty in past years but now he has gained some sort of consistency and performances like the other night against Oakland can only boost his stock. He does have a home run problem, his HR/9 is at 1.64, and his pitching in the wilds of Safeco has definitely helped him. However his K% is up, his BB% is down and his GB% is up. All good factors that have led to Vargas having his best year as a Mariner and in a relatively shallow pitching market that is always a good thing. 

Kevin Millwood

Yes, Kevin Millwood is super old and has had injury problems this year that could scare many teams away. He will have to prove his durability throughout the month of July but his first start back was impressive and he has shown that he can still dominate teams like he did a decade ago. He doesn’t give up any home runs and is keeping the ball on the ground at a near career high. He could be a dirt-cheap veteran that some teams want coming into the playoff stretch. I also do not like him so I may inflate his value to talk myself into getting rid of him. 

Ichiro Suzuki

Now for a second ignore the fact that Nintendo owns the Mariners, that Ichiro is one of the major attractions to the club for Japanese fans and that he has spent the past 11 years on the team as a fan favorite. He is blocking Casper Wells from getting the consistent playing time he needs; Ichiro is hitting .260 and is only slugging .351. But tell me that some GM wouldn’t jump at the chance to land one of the best hitters in the last decade. He may be aging but Ichiro still plays above average defense and can steal bases. Of course, Nintendo does own the Mariners and I find it hard that they would allow Jack Z to trade away the fan favorite. 

Tom Wilhelmsen

Geoff Baker wrote an article arguing why Tom Wilhelmsen is our most valuable trade chip right now. In short, he is a really good closer and is really cheap. I cannot argue either of those points but as a fan I don’t want to see Wilhelmsen leave. He is one of my favorites and seems like a guy we can build a bullpen around. But closers are very valuable around the deadline and for one as cheap as Wilhelmsen, we could get a very handsome return.

Charlie Furbush

For many of the same reasons that Wilhelmsen is here, cheap and effective, Furbush is also potentially valuable. I doubt he will be a headliner in any deal but he could be a second guy, like David Pauley, that makes a trade happen. 

Brandon League

This was supposed to our major trade chip at the deadline, but Brandon decided to choke away this year and was replaced as closer. At this rate he has lost almost all value he had after continuing to struggle in the seventh and eighth innings. Could be a throw in to a deal.

Brendan Ryan

Umm… I guess defensive replacement in late innings. Its not often that a guy hitting under .200 gets moved but Ryan does play an incredible shortstop. 

Teams Who Could Want to Make a Deal

The Mariners have pitching and lots of it, so ideally most teams we trade with will want pitching.

Boston Red Sox

• Seem to always be involved in some deals around the deadline
• Could use some bullpen and starting pitching help
• Have to keep up with ridiculously good AL East

Toronto Blue Jays

• Are finally putting together a competitive team
• Need to play catch up in AL East
• Fifth starter is Aaron Laffey.
• I will reiterate, their fifth starter is Aaron Laffey…

Cleveland Indians

• Need to try and catch up to White Sox
• Have some of the worst pitching in the league
• Their 4^th starter, Josh Tomlin, has an ERA of above 5

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Really need pitching
• Have resorted to 3^rd overall pick Trevor Bauer as fifth starter
• Josh Collmenter is 4^th starter
• Bullpen features one Mike Zagurski who has an ERA above 5

St. Louis Cardinals

• Need bullpen help
• Former Mariner Maikel Cleto is their long guy
• Has an ERA of 7

Atlanta Braves

• After Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson, their rotation is Jurrjens, Minor and Delgado
• Need depth and lots of it

Players Who We Could Acquire Through Trades or Magic

The Mariners need hitting and lots of it so that will ideally be what they are shopping for. These guys may not necessarily be traded but could be in the discussion plus some lower tier prospects. The Mariners need a shortstop, outfielders and potentially a first baseman. 

Boston

• Jose Iglesias SS- Excellent glove and a sub par to average bat. Fills in a need at SS since Franklin will move to second and potentially Ackley to the outfield. Think of Brendan Ryan but with a better bat.
• Lars Andersen 1B- Big powerful first baseman who strikes out too often and doesn’t walk a lot. Could challenge Smoak and Carp
• Henry Ramos OF- Young switch hitting outfielder with some power. Could use some time to develop

Toronto Blue Jays

• Moises Sierra OF- Power hitting outfielder who doesn’t walk a lot and strikes out a bunch. Is hitting very well in AAA
• Adeiny Hechavarria SS- Besdies having an awesome name, Adeiny is hitting like an animal in AAA with both power and speed. Would be awesome if we got him. 
• Michael McDade 1B- Defensively McDade is not the best and his power numbers aren’t off the charts but he has good gap power and can actually take a few walks. 

Cleveland Indians

• Tyler Holt OF- Fast, contact hitter who probably doesn’t hit enough to earn a lead off spot. Plays solid defense but is still in AA..
• Jesus Aguilar 1B- Is only in A+ ball but is slugging over .500 and offsets a 20% K rate with a 10% BB rate. Could be a nice snag.
• Ronny Rodriguez SS- Is only 20 years old but is already in A+ ball and is hitting for power as well as flashing some good speed. Is liked a lot by the Indians though.

Diamondbacks

• Mark Krauss OF- In his second year at the AA level, Krauss is cleaning up. His OPS is above.900 and his walk rate is at 15%. Defensively fills in at a corner spot.
• Chris Owings SS- Owings is only 21 and has made it up to AA. However, his approach at the plate is terrible featuring a 2% walk rate and a 24% K rate. Needs to show some improvement but is still young and has room to grow.
• Bobby Borchering 1B/ 3B- Similar to Owings in that he recently made it up to AA but is a year older. Also strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough. Does have some nice power though

St. Louis Cardinals

• Ryan Jackson SS- The first thing that comes up with Jackson is his fielding skills but his bat is not too shabby either. More like a rich mans Brendan Ryan with equal fielding skills and an improved bat. 
• Charlie Tilson OF- Is really raw and young but is a superb athlete. Needs a lot of seasoning and time to make it to the big leagues but his athleticism is very impressive. Could be a sleeper
• Matt Adams 1B- Is a big reach but Adams is country strong. He is a big boy who still needs some time in AAA but definitely has some impressive power numbers and could be a first baseman of the future

Atlanta Braves

• Joe Terdoslavich 1B- A switch hitting first baseman who started the year in AA and was bumped up only to struggle at AAA. Has shown enough power to allow for a poor approach at the plate.
• Matt Lipka OF- A former infielder who struggled at the plate, Lipka has shown a good approach at the plate but is still young. Has time to develop some power and improve overall at the plate.
• Edward Salcedo SS- Will probably not stick at SS because of his limited range but has shown lots of power. Is still young but has shown speed and power. A very nice combination to find in a prospect

This is only a brief rundown of the thousands of prospects the Mariners could look at and ask for in return for some of our players. This list will probably be updated and changed as we hear more closer to the deadline. So stay tuned and go M’s.

The Three Amigos: Chopped and Screwed Edition

Sorry for the lack of content this week, we have been on vacation, had social lives and been lazy. In the mean time, the Mariners did nothing impressive on the field and made some crazy moves off the field. And by crazy I mean completely logical things that were long awaited by many fans. A brief rundown of what happened, Hisashi Iwakuma got his first start of the year, Kevin Millwood was skipped once in the rotation due to his groin injury, Erasmo Ramirez suffered an arm injury and was put on the 15 day DL, Hector Noesi was sent down to AAA after struggling once again. So this version of the Amigos will be longish since there are now 4 amigos. To the grades!

Hector Noesi

I will be frank; Hector has not pitched well enough to keep his spot in the rotation. He has shown flashes of talent that make some fans excited for the future, but he spreads these flashes around elongated periods of inadequacy. This last start was one of the inadequate efforts from Hector. He went 5 innings, gave up four runs and struck out 4 Orioles. He got the loss, which gave him 11 on the year. I don’t care who you are, 11 losses before the All-Star break is not acceptable. He was sent down to Tacoma to work on his stuff and maybe figure out what a good 0-2 pitch looks like. In my assessment of Hector after watching him in the first half is that he is young. He has the stuff to be an effective starter in the Majors; he just has to work on his mental focus. Baseball and pitching especially demands complete focus on the task at hand. Hector needs to work on keeping focused even when he is ahead 0-2 on batters. He needs to develop a killer instinct to put the batter away when he gets ahead, that is something that can be seen in Felix. He gets an F and is held back this year.

Erasmo Ramirez

Not much can be said about Erasmo after his last start, he only lasted 2.2 innings against the Red Sox. Seeing a young pitcher go down with an elbow injury is never a good thing, especially one that has shown as much promise as Erasmo. According to Wedge and others the injury is not serious and Erasmo should be back after the All-Star break. That is excellent news; he did have a no hitter going against the Sox and had 4 K’s at that point. Here’s to a better second half from Erasmo. He gets an incomplete.

Hisashi Iwakuma

Well this is something new, the Shaman was called on early to summon the spirit of Hisashi at the start of the game and he did not do a bad job. He at least was about equivalent with Hector Noesi. Iwakuma went 5 innings, gave up three runs on one bad pitch and struck out 4 guys. He also walked three guys. This is somewhat promising since it is Hisashi’s first start of the year and he can get more comfortable in his new role. At worst, Iwakuma is another Hector Noesi but at best, he returns to the form that earned him the Japanese Cy Young award a few years ago. Also, he can start to earn his paycheck, which was monstrous for a long reliever but is now ok for a starter. He gets a B-.

Kevin Millwood

Well well, we meet again Mr. Millwood. Seems like your groin has finally healed. Hopefully it does not act up again because you are becoming somewhat attractive as a trade piece. Millwood did a nice job against the Oakland A’s blah blah blah. Who cares, it’s the Oakland A’s who are somehow a .500 team. Yet still have a pretty bad offense. Anyway, I am hoping other teams start noticing Millwood who is dirt-cheap and can hopefully start to show some durability. For those who don’t realize, Tom Wilhelmsen is our best trade piece right now and I really don’t want to see him moved. So hopefully Vargas can show some more consistency and Millwood some durability so they can turn into prospects. Yay prospects! Millwood gets an A. I am feeling nice this morning.

Tip of the Cap

Casper Wells

Besides breaking up a perfect game, no hitter and shutout at the same time against Wei-Yin Chen, Casper has been doing an awesome job. Both he and Saunders have made huge steps this year, making their cases for regular starting jobs. Unfortunately once Franklin comes back, they will be forced to platoon since Ichiro is not moving from right field. Some people have been calling for Ichiro to be traded or benched before and I have disagreed since the alternative was not much better. Now I would not be opposed to Ichiro seeing more of the pine since Casper and Saunders are two of our better hitters right now. Well done Casper, I tip my cap to you.

Menacing Glare

The Young Phenoms

For those who may not know who I am referring to, it is Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero. These three are supposed to be the building blocks of the Mariners offense in the coming years. They are looking terrible. Ackley is looking completely over matched at the plate and is hitting .238 with an OPS of .653. That is bad, especially from the lead off hitter of the future. Smoak has been talked about many times and his struggles have been chronicled. Anytime a player is flirting with the Mendoza line, it is not good. He also has a slugging percentage of .333, not ideal from a first baseman. Maybe Tacoma can fix his woes once Carp returns from injury. Jesus Montero has one RBI since June 1^st. That is horrible for a clean up hitter and future savior of the offense. I don’t want to even give you his stats because they will further depress me. Just know they are not good. All three of these guys need to step up their play if the Mariners want to contend.

The Word:

Ridiculous and Stupid

This is more than one word, I know, but the issue I am addressing requires more than just one word. I am talking about bringing in the fences at Safeco. That idea is ridiculous and stupid. Just because our offense sucks does not mean we should adjust the park to them. The Mariners have been playing in Safeco for over a decade and never have the fences been an issue. Remember when we won 116 games in 2001? Were the fences too far back then? What about when we lost over 100 games in 2008? Did we debate the fences as being too far back? Nope, we just accepted that our team was bad. Guess what Mariner fans, in no way was this team supposed to be good this year. Everyone including Jack Z knew it. We have a young talented club. The growing pains will be rough and we are going through them now. But we cannot make excuses for this club; it is stupid and ridiculous to try to do so. So suck it up and be patient. Success will come, trust Jack Z and know that he has a plan. 

I will now leave you with a picture I came across the other day. All that must be known is that Hisashi Iwakuma looks like a boss. Go M's