Prepare to Get Stung: Rays Series Preview

By Patrick

Sure, the Blue Jays only took two out of three and the M's have a 4-2 record on this road trip, but since Friday was an absolutely no business win for the Mariners, they should count their lucky stars they didn't get swept. I just opened with a really long sentence. Let's see how the rest of this goes.

The Mariners are in the unenviable position of having to travel to Tampa Bay for a four game set. I wouldn't wish that on anyone but the Rangers and Angels. The Mariners fare well against teams that they can overwhelm with pitching matchups. They can't do that to the Rays, who boast baseball's best rotation. Even Felix, who pretty much always has the advantage coming in and is the closest thing to an automatic win the M's have ever had, probably faces an even matchup against Jeremy Hellickson on the road. I'm not optimistic about this series, as you can probably tell. 

April 30: Felix (2-1, 2.48) vs. Hellboy (3-0, 2.84)

Definitely the best pitching matchup the Mariners have been a part of all season. Although, I'm pretty sure that "best pitching matchup" would guarantee Felix is pitching, since the Mariners have no one anywhere near as good. Hellickson opposed the Mariners three times last season. The final scores of those games were 8-0, 8-1, and 3-2, all wins for the Rays. I had a feeling Hellickson dominated the M's last year. He allowed a grand total of two earned runs in those starts, and 14 hits in 22.1 innings. Damn. He really did dominate Seattle last year. Last year's American League rookie of the year has started this season on fire and undefeated. Felix obviously poses his biggest test, but the Mariners' offense doesn't, and hasn't in the past. This gas worries me, because it would be a waste of a happy Felix day, and poses probably the toughest threat this side of Justin Verlander the American League can offer the M's. Felix needs to continue his solid form of late for the M's to have any chance here. If Vegas sets the over-under on this game at 3.5, I'd take the under. 

May 1: Hector "Jason Vargas" Noesi (1-2, 8.83) vs. Matt Moore (0-1, 4.68)

That nickname will be explained in further detail in Tuesday's in-depth column from Anthony Davis about how the Mariner rookie pretty much has turned into Jason Vargas. Not literally of course. Well, almost. Just read it tomorrow. Anyway, Noesi looked pretty good last time out, taking a no hitter into the fifth. Then he got two more outs before getting yanked after blowing a four run lead. Sound like anyone we used to know? Here's a hint, it's Jason Vargas. That article is going to be good, don't miss it. Matt Moore also is a rookie. Baseball America rated him as the top prospect in baseball coming into 2012. That's high praise. His numbers don't exactly reflect that yet. I have a feeling that if the Mariners can get over the hump and beat Hellickson in game one, they'll have a chance against Moore. They still might lose though, since Hector Noesi has sucked in half of his starts so far this year.

May 2: Blake "Ham Sandwich" Beavan (1-2, 3.60) vs. James Shields (4-0, 3.31)

Do I even have to write about this game? Not only is Blake Beavan really fucking boring, he's opposing the best pitcher the Rays have, who has four wins already this year. I just don't see the M's winning this one, although for some reason I have the opposite feeling that I had about Jeremy Hellickson that I do about James Shields. Research time. I was right again! In 2011, Shields allowed seven earned runs in both of his starts against Seattle. So there's that. james Shields last beat the Mariners on May 4, 2010. That's two years ago. Blake Beavan has never faced Tampa Bay. That means something I guess, although I'm not sure exactly what. So maybe the M's do have a chance. I'm beginning to convince myself. Stay tuned. Side note: Blake Beavan has a non-boring goatee. I have facial hair envy towards him.

May 3: Kevin "Old Man Jenkins" Millwood (0-2, 5.24) vs. Jeff Niemann (1-3, 3.86)

Something has struck me about the Mariners and Rays rotation from just writing this post. The Mariners' pitchers ERA's are all over the place. One in the twos, one in the threes (plus Vargas is in the threes after today), one in the fives, and good old Hector in the eights. The Rays' ERA's are much more balanced. David Price and Hellboy are in the twos, and everybody else is in the threes and fours, regardless of what their records are. Jeff Niemann's ERA is only around fifty points lower than James Shields', but Niemann is 1-3 while Shields is undefeated at 4-0. Felix Hernandez is 2-1 because his ERA is in the twos. Hector Noesi is 1-2 because his ERA is in the eights. Why doesn't Jeff Niemann have a better record? This probably won't matter, since Kevin Millwood will get rocked or pitch pretty badly or find a way to squander a lead or something. I'm not very high on him so far this year. The Mariners don't seem to hit for him very all, so maybe they aren't either. 

Three to Watch:

Miguel Olivo: Seven days ago, Miguel Olivo was easily the worst Mariner hitter that played on a regular basis. Now, he's the second-worst hitter (Yeah, Brendan Ryan sucks). But he's added two home runs to his resume since then. That's something to track, since Jesus Montero only has three homers all year. And his .195 average is actually better than Justin Smoak's. That's awful. You know what else is awful? Fifteen hits and 17 strikeouts. That line belongs to Olivo. Let's improve that Miguel. I want him to go deep twice in Tampa to prove he's worth a roster spot.

Michael Saunders: I'm pissed I didn't tell the readers to watch him on Friday, because he was pretty fun to watch then. That grand slam he hit won the M's the game, and his 462 foot drive to deep center was pretty incredible. Maybe he's only good in Canada though. That could increase his trade value to the Blue Jays exponentially. His average rose to .258 over the weekend. If it can stay around there, I think I would be happy at least for a while. Especially since Guti is now dealing with plantar fasciitis on top of his pectoral injury. Condor up!

Evan Longoria: I usually choose the player with the highest batting average on the other team for this spot, but since that's Chris Giminez for the Rays (I can't make this shit up), I went with their superstar and second highest average, Longoria. I really don't have a great angle to take on this one except Evan Longoria can mash. Just flat out kill the ball. There's a reason I almost always have  him on my fantasy baseball team (even with his .329/4/19 line so far this year, the Way Outs are struggling to stay above .500 in the early going). Mariner pitchers will probably pitch around him a lot in this series, much like they did to Jose Bautista this weekend in Toronto. Bautista didn't do a whole lot in the series, which was nice, but he's also in a slump to start the year, whereas Longoria's numbers are right where they need to be. I hope we limit him fairly well.

Series Outlook: 

I still don't have a great sense of when the Mariners will go off and when they'll suck. In general though, if it's not against Detroit, they probably won't explode on the road. Hopefully I just reverse jinxed them. Probably not though. I think the first game of the series will mean a lot for the M's. If they can beat Hellboy, which they have never done, the M's will have the confidence to beat a rookie with a high ERA, an ace they've knocked around in the past, and an average fifth starter. That first game will set the tone. And I think they win it and get a split in Tampa. Felix pitches well again and the M's win a squeaker against Hellboy, 3-2. Noesi will struggle again and the M's will drop game two 7-3. Beavan will be ham sandwich enough to win as Seattle will beat up on James Shields as always to win 6-4. And then Millwood struggles just enough for the M's to lose the getaway game against Jeff Niemann, who's record will start to look more like his ERA. A split in Tampa would help a lot, and the Twins coming in at home over the weekend presents a great opportunity for the M's to push it back over .500. #FreeJaso. Go M's.

The Three Amigos: Parte Catro

By Anthony

For those of you less sophisticated than me, you may think I made a typo in the headline there. I did not, I merely wrote the title in Galician instead of Spanish, duh. Anyway, this is once again the great part of my job where I get to talk about the three people on the M’s rotation that aren’t Felix or Vargas. I also get to tip of the cap wag of the finger though, and talk about a word. Huzzah!

Hector Noesi

This was a really funny start for me personally, mostly because I was unable to watch it and just looked at the box score. What I did not realize until I texted Patrick later was that he was unhittable for a little over 4 innings. Then he imploded and couldn’t get an out. I will be writing something about Hector shortly and comparing him to Jason Vargas from last year in their maddening inconsistency. His line sucked pretty much. But for those 4 innings we showed the potential he has. This is frustrating. This is also why I didn’t like Jason Vargas before this year since he is finally pitching consistently. If Noesi can go out everyday and pitch like he can, he could be an ace, which with the talent we have in the system, he's a fifth starter. Noesi threw about 66% strikes, which isn’t quite Blake Beavan numbers but is pretty good for him. I would love to see Felix take Hector under his wing and try to teach him some stuff because he has the talent. All he has to do is put it all together, which is the hardest part but if he can do that our rotation could be awesome. He gets a C because he showed his talent and then fell apart.

Blake Beavan
Wow, Blake Beavan had another Blake Beavan start. Except this time he wasn’t going up against Phil Humber who somehow can throw a perfect game one day and then get shelled the next. Anyway, something I will now talk about as opposed to Blake Beavan because he is super boring to write about, no offense Blake, is John Jaso. I still don’t understand how he has not become a cult hero amongst Mariner fans. I literally cannot describe an at bat I watched of his where he looked terrible. Whenever he gets to hit, I feel comfortable with him either getting a hit or at least making the pitcher work. This is miles different from Miguel Olivo, who looks like a complete idiot in at least one swing a game. In the Michael Saunders is a hero game, I watched most of the end of the game and came to the conclusion that Olivo decides whether or not he will swing before the pitch is delivered. For pitchers, this makes life really easy. Throw breaking pitches and let him get himself out. John Jaso rarely does this; he makes the pitcher throw him strikes and doesn’t get himself out. Play him more Wedge! Please! So yeah, Blake Beavan gets a B, again. Shocker, I know.

Kevin Millwood
Whenever I watch Kevin Millwood pitch, I get really surprised about how his pitches move. His fastball has a lot of run on it, which means it tails toward right-handed hitters. He also almost never hits his spots. His career BB/9 innings is 3.22. That is not good, especially when you are old and don’t have great stuff anymore. This time around, Millwood did a good job, 7 innings, 3 runs, about 60% strikes. As an old washed up guy pitching in the fifth slot of the rotation, that’s pretty solid. I will take that from Kevin Millwood for the rest of the year. But I also want to examine Wedge’s claim that he gets tougher when people get on base. His left-on-base percentage is 57.8%, and he has averaged 71.8% in his career. He is leaving fewer people on base, which means they are scoring more. Not that there is anyone waiting in the wings to replace Millwood yet. So he has a little time to bump up his number and performances like the one he had against the Blue Jays are a good start. I’ll give him an A-. 

Tip of the Cap- Michael Saunders

 Boom! Suck it Patrick! The Canadian Condor went crazy on his countrymen from the Great White North. The grand slam and solo home run were pretty sweet as in they won the game for us. But I want to look a little deeper than just the cool stuff. Saunders is still striking out about 25% of the time. But he is now walking over 10% of the time, which is much better than usual. He also is slugging over .500. This is a huge turn around for Saunders and means that once Guti gets back, if he ever does, some tough decisions to be made. Side note: Guti has plantar fasciitis and his recovery has been delayed further. THAT SUCKS!!!

Wag of My Finger- Hisashi Iwakuma

If you notice a theme here, it would be taking advantages of the opportunities given to you. Saunders did it and could end up as a legitimate major league player. The "ghost of the bullpen" is absolutely not. He finally got a chance to pitch against the White Sox and did a pretty solid job. He got a second chance against the Blue Jays and was terrible! A grand slam on a pretty terrible pitch and two hard hit balls and an intentional walk. That is not good Hisashi. Also your pants look very tight on your calves. So you get a wag of my finger.

The Word: Hellacious

I chose this word mostly because it sounds awesome. I then had to look it up on my phone but it turns out to work pretty well for what I wanted to describe. It means astonishing or remarkable. A few days ago, the M’s swept the Tigers, one of the best teams in the league with one of the best offenses in baseball. That is not hellacious. The pitching for that series was pretty awesome, considering they were going up against Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and company. The bullpen was great, especially the now closer in waiting, Tom Wilhelmsen. His line from the series, 2 innings, 3 K’s, 0 BB’s and zero runs. That is not hellacious, what is hellacious is the 3-2 curve he threw to Prince Fielder. That pitch was absolutely nasty. It froze one of the best hitters in the league and the prize free agent of the year. I saw a replay of it and was astonished, it was indeed remarkable. It was hellacious. Go M's.

No Business Wins

By Patrick

A no business win is a term that I made up at some point in my sports fanhood. The definition of a no business win is as follows: a victory recorded by a team that essentially lost the game already or had absolutely no chance on paper coming in. Norfolk State had a no business win of the second kind against Missouri in the first round of the NCAA tournament this year. When Michigan beat Notre Dame on a last second touchdown pass after giving up the go ahead score with just 30 seconds left, the scored a NBW. 

Last night in Toronto, the Seattle Mariners won a sweet, sweet no business win against the Blue Jays.

With the game tied in the eighth, Tom Wilhelmsen got absolutely jacked by Eric Thames and then allowed another run on a sac fly after he threw away a pick off throw. The M's were dead and buried. Francisco Cordero looked poised to slam the door. The Mariners had given the game their best shot and on a night where they didn't get a hit in the first five innings, they had lost. Mariner fans wouldn't have been too mad, since Ricky Romero should beat the M's most of the time.

The Michael Saunders went deep. Wow, it's nice that the Condor finally showed some pop. He crushed that pitch. Just maimed it to deep center. But the M's still trailed, and didn't show any clear signs of drawing even. 

Then the game ended. Or it should have. Kyle Seager hit a two hopper to Brett Lawrie, who had plenty of time to throw. The throw bounced, but Adam Lind should have still made the scoop. The ball went into his glove, and then by some minor miracle, it bounced out again. Seager reached first on the error. 

Inexplicably, J.P. Arencibia elected to try and pick pinch runner Moony Kawasaki off of first. Adam Lind agreed with me about the pickoff, since it went wide and rolled all the way to right field wall. Kawasaki advanced to third, and Ackley, who was batting at the time was intentionally walked.

Captain Clutch John Jaso stepped in to pinch hit for Brendan Ryan, and dropped a line drive into centerfield. In a particularly Mariner-like play however, Dustin Ackley was gunned down at home, sending the game to the bottom of the ninth tied, instead of with the Mariners ahead.

The collective bat missing prowess of Tom Wilhelmsen and Charlie Furbush erased the Blue Jays in the ninth. A sick hammer curve from Wilhelmsen retired Jose Bautista, and Furbush had a slick K to end the inning. 

Then the tenth happened. The M's loaded the bases with three singles from Smoak, Montero, and Liddi consecutively. In stepped Michael Saunders. The rye bread and mustard was on ice, but I don't think anyone could have honestly expected Saunders to jack another one. 

But that he did; Saunders blew the game open with a grand salami that tasted pretty bitter for the Blue Jays, who had this game won. The Mariners hit the defibrillator on this contest, with a little help from Brett Lawrie and Adam Lind, and they finished it off in grand fashion. 

What an incredible win. As Dave Sims said over and over in between very short breaths (he needs to breathe more), what a game! The Mariners battled early struggles to win the game with potent offense and power hitting. Michael Saunders woke up in a big way in the ninth and tenth with home runs in consecutive at bats to save the game. And the M's got a little help from the Blue Jays, who will rue losing this one in September. 

In the book of no business wins, this one ranks pretty high. However, good teams always seem to pull off no business wins of the first kind on their way to successful seasons. I know it's early, but let a guy dream. Go M's.

How Aboot Another Sweep, Eh? Blue Jays Series Preview

By Patrick

I won't lie to you. On Monday, I was legitimately worried that the Mariners wouldn't get back to .500 in 2012. The perfect game was rough, but that whole series in general caused alarm about the Mariners' offense that pointed to a repeat of 2009-2011. They needed a breakout series against a good team where the bats really picked up to restore fan and blogger confidence. 

Then the Detroit series happened. The phrase "exactly what the doctor ordered" applies here I think. I don't really see how this series could have gone better. On Tuesday, the M's kicked the crap out of a decent pitcher in Max Scherzer, and Brandon League got late run support in order to help him coast to a save (that late run support really helped him I think. I was pleading with my computer for a few more runs and they gave them to me and Brandon. Great job team.) after he blew his chance last Friday. On Wednesday, the Mariners finally hit for Felix and they cruised to a 9-1 win in which the bats continued to produce over and over again and the team chased starter Adam Wilk (who was demoted to AAA after the game) in just 2+ innings. Then yesterday, the Mariners finally won a getaway game, games they seemingly threw last year in hopes of getting unprepared young guys meaningful starts. Brandon League induced a game ending double play, and the Mariners got their first sweep of 2012. 

However, a trip to Toronto gives the squad no time to rest. The collective struggles of Max Scherzer, Adam Wilk, and Rick Porcello morph quickly into the dominating arms of Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, and Henderson Alvarez. Ok, not Henderson Alvarez. But the point is, the Mariners faced some pretty average at best pitching in Detroit. Now they get two significantly above average starters and one on the level of the ones the faced in Detroit. Should be harder right? Matchup time:

April 27: Blake Beavan (1-2, 3.26) vs. Ricky Romero (3-0, 3.29)

The Mariners have faced Justin Masterson, Yu Darvish, Colby Lewis, and Brandon McCarthy this season, but Ricky Romero is far and away better than any of the pitchers the M's have faced so far this year. Romero has had an abnormally low sub six strikeouts per nine innings so far this year, but his ground ball rates have been good. His run support has helped him as well. As you can see, Beavan has a better ERA, but Romero has a significantly better overall record. Plain and simple, the M's haven't hit for Beavan, and the Blue Jays bombing offense has supported their ace. You can't win if you don't score. And the Mariners might struggle to do so, since they hit a lot of ground balls. Beavan is known for his boring consistency. A boringly good start would do enough to keep the Mariners in the game, but hitting Romero will be tough.

April 28: Kevin Millwood (0-1, 7.04) vs. Brandon Morrow (1-1, 3.74)

Yes! Finally another shot at revenge against Morrow. I can't wait to make him pay for beaning Carper Wells last year and beating us. Who we got on the hill? Gimme Felix or Vargas, we need this one! You're kidding me right? Fucking Kevin Millwood? This is some sort of sick joke, right? It's not? Shit. We're in trouble. Millwood's three starts have been…ambiguous. He showed an ability to escape trouble in Texas, limiting damage through six innings and keeping the M's in the game for a comeback win in the ninth. His next two efforts were pretty weak though, and his ERA tells the story of those outings. Morrow is a great pitcher, a former Mariner, and is not Tim Lincecum. I still dislike Morrow, and feel like we'll never see appropriate returns for that mistake of a pick. Remember however that we traded Morrow for League, so if we end up trading League whatever we get back becomes our return. Stay tuned for that in July. For now, this matchup doesn't look good for the M's.

April 29: Jason Vargas (3-1, 3.45) vs. Henderson Alvarez (0-2, 4.10)

While Jason Vargas wasn't exactly sharp in his last start, he wasn't horrible either. Jason Vargas delivered a start that I didn't have a major opinion on either way. This is not the Jason Vargas I know. This looks more like consistent number two starter Jason Vargas. Yes! He can do it! Suck it, Anthony! Of course, now that I've typed this, this will be his Mr. Vargas outing. He will find some way to lose to Henderson Alvarez, who is this series' Adam Wilk. Maybe the M's can demote him with a few innings of sustained power hitting. It's scary that a few innings of sustained power hitting is considered an unqualified success for this organization. It would be great if Jason Vargas was 4-1 though.

Three to Watch:

Justin Smoak: At the beginning of this week, Justin had hamstring issues that worried Mariner fans everywhere about yet another injury plagued season. But Thursday, on a well-worked 2-2 count, Justin obliterated a hanging changeup from Rick Porcello and crushed a no-doubter to right field. The three-run shot go the M's going in the first, and provided 60% of the offensive output for Seattle yesterday. Without that mashing swing of his, the Mariners lose that game easily. His average is still just .197, but I'll take .235 or .240 from him if he keeps killing pitches like that one. Minimum I expect a homer and four RBI this weekend from Smoak.

Chone Figgins: Yeah, this one's pretty obvious. After Figgins' average dropped to .206 on Tuesday, Eric Wedge benched him, inserted Dustin Ackley in the leadoff spot (he tore it up, too), and publicly called Chone out on his ineffective hitting. Then yesterday, Figgins proceeded to key the Mariners' victory with a three hit night, including the game winning RBI double. His average jumped 30 points. Figgins is like a criminal on death row who continually appeals his execution over and over again. He gets a ton of shit from the media, fans, and the organization and then does just enough to get out of the doghouse and make fans hope for better. Then he slowly recesses back and has to fight out of the hole again. He's on his way up again it seems. Wedge has elected to go with Casper Wells in left field today though. 

Brett Lawrie: There are a few reasons to be interested in Brett Lawrie in this series. Firstly, he has the highest average among Toronto regulars so far in 2012. Secondly, he has a sister who is rather prominent in Seattle sports, as the national player of the year in softball for UW in 2010. Another reason Brett Lawrie interests Mariner fans is that, as Jeff Sullivan mentioned back in February, the Mariners had originally advertised Michael Pineda to the Blue Jays with Lawrie as the centerpiece in the return haul. However, the main reason why Mariner fans should pay attention to Lwrie is that he might really crush the pitching in this series. The guy can hit, and his connection to the Pacific Northwest amplifies that damage against the M's.

Series Outlook:

The M's have a chance to go over .500 in this series. I can't see them pulling off another sweep, especially since they have clear disadvantages in the first two pitching match ups. Best case scenario, the M's pull out one of the first two games and then obliterate the Blue Jays on Sunday. That would put them at an ideal 12-11facing a four game series in Tampa Bay. That being said, can the Mariner hit Ricky Romero? Can Kevin Millwood really hang with Brandon Morrow?  Probably not. The Blue Jays win 4-2 tonight behind solid work from Romero and win 8-3 tomorrow because, you know, Kevin Millwood and shit. Vargas salvages a game for the M's on Sunday with a solid performance in a 7-1 victory. Go M's.

Don't Be Happy About Pineda's Injury

By Patrick

Michael Pineda is done for the year. 

He tore his labrum during a rehab session on Tuesday and underwent surgery yesterday in order to repair it. The surgery takes 12 months for pitchers to fully recover from, meaning the earliest Pineda can return without setbacks would be May 2013. 

Michael Pineda plays for the Yankees. Any other Yankee pitcher suffering a torn labrum would illicit the sad but authentic "haha, suck it Yankees" reaction from me. However, as a true Mariners fan, I can't bring myself to say that. 

Last season, Michael Pineda charmed Mariner fans with his incredible fastball and slider. He made us dream about the future. We could have had two aces at the top of the rotation for the next five years. Then in January, Jack Z shocked the world (slight exaggeration) by trading Pineda for Jesus Montero. 

The trade caused a lot of debate among experts about who "won." The general consensus was that the Yankees held a slight advantage in the deal, but many felt that nobody won the trade, which ultimately made it a fair exchange. 

Now, with Pineda done for a while, it seems that the Mariners have won the trade. My reaction should be: "Wow! We won a trade with the Yankees! It's about time." But it's not. I'm saddened by the news like I've never felt before about a Yankee.

Michael Pineda was special like only Felix had been in my lifetime before him. Like Felix, he was a young latino power pitcher with an off speed pitch (Pineda has a dirty slider, Felix an amazing change) to die for. Dave Niehaus delivered the best quote about Pineda during his final Spring Training in 2010. It was simple and to the point. After Pineda struck out a guy with a slider, Niehaus said, "Wooo, that stank!"

And Pineda's slider did stink in the best way possible. He pitched with maturity beyond his years and was sure to turn into a star in two years tops. The Mariners had a chance to have two Cy Young Award winners in five years. Prince Michael, as Anthony called him, made the Mariners feel like they had a second Felix.

And now that could all be over. Granted, the M's would never have reaped the benefits of Pineda's superstardom, and he would have drawn the label of "the one that got away," but at least he would have succeeded. But with the torn labrum, he might never regain his brilliant 2011 form. The most accurate comparison I've heard since the news broke regarding the labrum operation was Erik Bedard, and Mariner fans know all too well how that worked out. I wouldn't wish Erik Bedard on any fan base.

Maybe I didn't want Pineda to become a star and make Jack Z look foolish, but I certainly didn't want this to happen. Michael Pineda deserves the hall of fame, not the infamous bust tag that he'll have until he proves himself in the Bronx. 

At present, the trade feels like a steal for the M's. But as much as I want to feel awesome, I can't. I can't feel good about Michael Pineda's career potentially never taking off. 2011 Pineda was our joy, but our hitting was so terrible that we couldn't hold on to him. 2012-2025 should have belonged to somebody else. Now it could be all over. And that sucks, it really just sucks. Go M's.

Life Goes On and Gets Even Harder: Tigers Series Preview

By Patrick

What a rough four game stretch. First, Felix's perfect start is ruined by Brandon League inevitably blowing a save in a high pressure situation. Then Hector Noesi fails to get out of the second inning and the Mariners lose 7-3. It's OK though because they redeemed themselves the next day. Wait, what? Phil Humber threw a perfect game? Damn it. And yeah, that was terrible. It's about time though. After three years of really sucky hitting, someone was bound to perfect game the M's. They had it coming. Even so, a perfect game hurts. Especially with the way Brendan Ryan just whiffed helplessly at the final pitch. That was sad to watch. Sunday didn't get any better, but at least the M's scored four runs, which amounts to more than they scored in the first two games of the series. They blew yet another early lead though, as Kevin Millwood looked poor again. He's such a stop gap it's ridiculous.

Anyway, the 7-10 Mariners have more baseball to play. In fact, they have 145 games left to play. That can only be described as a lot more. So, yeah, they have some work to do. Fortunately, it gets a lot easier, since they go and play the Tigers in Detroit this week. What? Detroit is 10-6 and has the best offense in baseball at full potential? Shit. The M's are screwed.

April 24: Jason Vargas (2-1, 2.84) vs. Max Scherzer (1-1, 7.98)

Wow. Jason Vargas' line this year is really good. And by really good I mean decent on a team like the Mariners. In the middle of last week, I almost made the point that no M's starter had a losing record. Well, now three of them do, and Vargas remains the only pitcher with a winning record. I'm beginning to wonder whether Mr. Vargas will ever appear. Not to jinx it or anything. The last two times I've previewed a Vargas start, I've predicted that his bad side would come out. It hasn't yet. That being said, I think it will happen today. The Tigers can mash, and the M's are on the road. It just makes sense. I do hope that Vargas has turned the corner though, mostly so we can trade him for a shitload of prospects at the deadline. That's the life of a Mariners fan. Oh and Max Scherzer has an ERA of nearly eight. Nah, it doesn't matter. He's facing the Mariners. They love fixing ERA's. 

April 25: Felix Hernandez (1-1, 2.76) vs. Adam Wilk (0-2, 4.00)

Who is Adam Wilk? Anybody heard of this guy before? Its fine though since his opponent is almost equally unknown. I'm sorry, I can't write that with a straight face. The Mariner somehow managed to screw Thursday night up for Felix. I swear if they screw up Wednesday I'm going to commit a crime. Wow, I can't believe I wrote that. I'm scaring myself. Please, offense and Brandon League, help Felix. Convince him that Seattle has something, anything to offer him. Why he wants to stay in Seattle continues to baffle me. That's why he's the King I guess. Felix's change up, which was i full filth mode on Thursday, should cause the Tigers hitters enough problems that the M's offense can get going against the guy that nobody outside of Detroit and most people inside of Detroit have never heard of. I'm sorry, I would refer to him by name again, but my computer keeps autocorrecting his name to Will. It's frustrating. All hail the King.

April 26: Hector Noesi (1-2, 9.49) vs. Rick Porcello (1-1, 6.32)

I dunno about you, but when I look at this matchup I see 10-8, 11-10, written all over it. Check out Noesi's sexy ERA. For those unable to do middle school math, he's averaging over a run allowed per inning pitched. For those who don't understand baseball, that fucking sucks. However, unlike old, crotchety Kevin Millwood, Noesi is a work in progress and not a stop gap. He needs to work out his kinks and has already showed an ability to spin a gem. He has two stinker starts and one awesome one. Maybe, if he operates on some sort of strange alternating system, he'll go the distance in Detroit. I wonder if the M's would take that. If you were a crappy team like Seattle, and you knew that a pitcher would alternate eight inning shutouts with 2 innings bomb tests ever start, would you pitch him? I think the Mariners would definitely do that. Also, Rick Porcello blows. We better not turn him into Phil Humber. Since the M's hit the Tigers pretty well last year, I think this could be a good game for the offense.

Three to watch:

Kyle Seager: His hot start disappeared over the weekend. His average dropped to .255. He had some really bad at bats where he had no idea where the pitch was going. He is, the most perplexing third baseman in the world. I don't always get base hits, but when I do, I get them with no one on base. I wonder if Kyle Seager drinks Dos Equis? Props if he does. This week in Detroit, the M's will need him to hit consistently and drive in runs when called upon. The other day I tweeted at a bunch of writers asking whether they though Kyle Seager could be the future third baseman for the Mariners. Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing tweeted back, "I think he's earning consideration." That pretty accurately sums it up. 

Jesus Montero: Through 54 at bats, Montero has two homer runs and eight RBIs. That's not terrible. He has three extra-base hits. That is terrible. Middle of the order singles hitters is so 2009-2011 for the M's. Montero needs to stop that trend. This seems like a perfect series for him to turn that around, since at least one of these games will be a slugfest. The Mariners brought in Montero for his power, specifically to the opposite field. We haven't seen any oppo homers yet, but He has crushed two singers to deep center at Safeco. That's a great sign. Some doubles in this series would be nice also.

Miguel Cabrera: How can you look past Miggy? He's the best overall hitter in baseball, with no disrespect to Albert Pujols. He has a modest four homers with a .290 average and 12 RBIs so far in 2012. The Mariners really need a guy like that, where that line is considered below average. That guy would be a legend in Seattle. Also, Cabrera arrived on Twitter today. Good for him for joining the digital age once and for all. Mariner pitchers will want to stay away from Cabrera in big spots. Expect at least two or three intentional walks in the series.

Series Outlook:

This one could be ugly for the M's. 7-13 would suck, especially since it at worst should be like 9-11. I gotta think that by avoiding Verlander the Mariners will win at least one game against inferior pitching. Its a pretty obvious choice, but I like the Mariners in Felix's start and the Tigers in Noesi's. So I think Vargas' start tonight decides it. Jason has pitched really well this season as I touched on earlier, but this game also feels like one where he would bomb in. If he pitches well, not only will the M's win, they will feel very strongly about their number two starter and best trade chip. I'm gonna go with Detroit in a close one tonight, 5-4. I think Felix will dominate on Wednesday as usual, and the Mariners take that game 4-1. I think Noesi struggles again on Thursday, and Rick freaking Porcello manages to silence the M's bats for a little while. Detroit wins game three, 8-3 and takes the series.

The Three Amigos, Parte Tres

By Anthony

See what I did there? I made the second part of the headline in Spanish, didn’t see that coming did you? Patrick recently told me I get to do this every turn in the rotation. Guess how excited I was? If you guessed marginally so, you were correct. No offense to the three amigos, but Felix and Vargas are substantially more interesting than these three and infinitely more so than Blake Beavan. All complaining aside, my grades follow.

Hector Noesi

It seems Noesi spent way too much time hanging around Jason Vargas in the spring since he has now turned into Dr. Noesi and Mr. Hector. This time out we saw the worst start of the year. He didn’t get out of the second, gave up a bunch of runs, sucked in almost every possible way. Something I did notice that is interesting, if not redeeming was that he threw strikes 66% of the time. This is different than his other sucky start against the Rangers when he threw strikes 58% of the time. So Noesi has diversified how he has sucked. I guess that’s good. What’s bad is that he was throwing up in the zone, such as the meatball he threw to Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn is a pretty bad hitter in the sense that he hit under .200 last year. But when you throw a major league hitter a pitch down the middle, odds are it is going to travel a long way. Adam Dunn is also pretty strong so it went a long way. Noesi needs to work down in the zone, because low pitches get hit for groundballs. It is almost impossible for a groundball to turn into a home run. Noesi needs to do better and please be more consistent! He gets a D- because he is a rookie and still got out of the first. 

Blake Beavan

Guess what? Blake Beavan had another classic Blake Beavan start. Six innings, three runs, 70 percent strikes. I wish I had something to write about him here but Blake is just being Blake. So I will go on a random tangent of my choosing to make this section seem about as long as the other ones. The theme of this tangent is the future. Here are three sets of stats: 16 innings pitched, 2.81 ERA, 11.81 K per 9 innings, 4.5 BB per 9. 11 innings pitched, 1.64 ERA, 12.27 K/9, 1.64 BB/9. 17 innings pitched, 4.15 ERA, 11.42 K/9 7.27 BB/9. Those three stat lines are awesome. Over 11 strikeouts per nine innings for all three? Are you not entertained? ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED? If you couldn’t already guess, those three stat lines belong to the future three amigos, Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker and James Paxton respectively. Yeah, that’s the future M’s fans, so whenever you watch Brendan Ryan argue a strike call instead of running to first, just imagine those numbers and let all your angst disappear. So yeah, about Blake Beavan, he gets a B. The dude had to go against a perfect game, cut him some slack.

Kevin Millwood

Hey, want to know why Spring Training stats are usually ignored? Boom! Kevin Millwood. His first start was pretty solid. But the other day he was not good. Five innings pitched, five earned runs, three walks. I had pretty low expectations going into the year for Millwood, Wedge loves his ability to get out of jams. Guess what his LOB% is. 54%. Know what his career average is? 71%. Wedge, wake up! I am all about irrational favoritism and stubbornness, but I am more about pitchers who don’t suck. Sorry Kevin, but you are washed up. I know you want to be like Bartolo Colon and pitch until your arm falls off but you are not Bartolo. He throws strikes, like 38 in a row. You threw 54 strikes against the White Sox. Please do decently until Forrest Snow or somebody is ready to show up and do cool stuff that you can no longer do. You get a C- because you finally got your first decision. Congratulations, and remember, C’s get degrees. 

For those who watch Steven Colbert, you'll know his segment "The Word." Since we lack creativity here at Way Out In Left Field, we (read I) came up with this segment to apply after every turn in the rotation in some way. 

Obscene

Dictionary.com defines this as "offensive to morality or decency." For those who saw King Felix on display against the Indians, you can probably agree with me; that was an awesome start. He reassumed his crown as one of the best in the AL. But that as a whole is not obscene. His performance in the eighth inning was awesome. That dude can flat out compete. If Wedge had tried to pull him there I feel like Felix would have yelled at him till he left. That inning however, was not obscene. What was obscene was what happened to Jason Kipnis and Shin-Soo Choo. Those two probably had nightmares about those at bats when the literally had zero chance. King Felix was not letting them beat him, he knew it, they knew it and the crowd knew it. Those change ups were unhittable. It should be illegal to throw that pitch. I'm sure that was offensive to at least the 3 Indian fans in Cleveland. And that brings us the word. Obscene, Felix Hernandez's change up.

Now for some venting about the perfect game. If you are sick of hearing about it, by all means ignore this part. I was first told the result of the game as I was sitting under a tent trying to recover from heat exhaustion. Through the headache, dizziness and gallons of water passing through my system, I was perplexed. I figured the M’s would flirt with perfection in the bad sense, but I always thought Figgins could get a cheap hit, or Ackley or Ichiro. But no, Phillip Humber was perfect. And what put the nail in the coffin was Brendan Ryan, the hustle guy who is a leader in the clubhouse and whatever. I am sorry Brendan, but when did you ever see an umpire change their mind. Ever. I have never seen it unless it was a HR call on video replay. Run to first base. It is really simple. Argue the call afterwards. Hats off to Phillip Humber, perfect games are difficult at any level. Yeah Brendan Ryan was one of 27 outs. But show some hustle and class and try to beat out the throw. Argue later. Brendan Ryan you get a wag of my finger. New section for these articles, tip of the cap, wag of the finger, thanks Steven Colbert.

Oh, There's More Baseball This Weekend: White Sox Series Preview

By Patrick

I'm sorry. That title doesn't make a lot of sense. But after last night, not a lot does. Felix pitched like a king last night. He was incredible. The intensity of the two strikeouts (two of his 12) with the bases loaded in the eighth was only matched by the letdown of Jack Hannahan's game clinching single off of Brandon League that ruined the night for Felix and Mariner fans.

This Cleveland series ultimately represented blown chances. An 8-1 lead turned into a 9-8 loss. A near perfect performance from the King turned into a 2-1 defeat because our closer couldn't hit his spots. I predicted the M's would lose two out of three, but not like that. Seattle should have swept.

Fortunately, the way baseball works, the Mariners play again today. They get a fresh chance to redeem themselves in a weekend series with the White Sox, who come in having lost four of five. Recently, they won just one game in a four game series with the Orioles. The won just three of seven games on the home stand that ended yesterday. That's not saying much, considering the Mariners will have that same record if they lose tonight. At any rate, three games means three match ups.

April 20: Hector Noesi (1-1, 5.73) vs. Chris Sale (1-1, 3.09)

I know Seattle. Today is 4/20. This may not be a very well attended game. On the other hand, the 7:10 start time could be perfect for business.

Stoner: Wow, I'm so high right now.
Other Stoner: Yeah, me too bro. 4/20 right?
Kid who's smoking for the first time: Me too guys! I'm sooooooo baked.
Stoner: Shut up pussy.
Other Stoner: Yeah, no one cares what you think. Let's do something really stupid.
Weed Virgin: Mariners game anyone (jokingly)?
Stoner: Yeah! That's a great idea! Let's do it.
Other Stoner: You're alright kid, you know that.
Weed Virgin: (smiles to himself feeling accepted)

See, the reason I don't smoke is I don't want to be that guy. Because I totally would suggest to go to the Mariners game. Except the stoners would probably look at me like I'm crazy. Oh, I almost forgot, the game! Noesi and Sale find themselves in similar situations. Both have the expectations of their fan base and franchise to be a future star. However, neither pitcher is in a really high pressure situation. They have both come out of nowhere to gain these expectations. If Hector Noesi can continue his previous form, then the Mariners can win. If he struggles to find the zone like he did in his debut in Texas, Mariner fans will continue lighting joints and crapping on the state of the Mariners well into the night. Let's be real, they'll probably do that anyway.

April 21: Blake Beavan (1-1, 2.70) vs. Phil Humber (0-0, 1.69)

Fun fact about Phil Humber. He became the second to last player on an opening day roster in Major League Baseball to appear in a game. The last player has yet to appear. Who is the mystery man? Why Hisashi Iwakuma of course! But no one cares about him. Blake Beavan has pitched brilliantly this season. Consistency is the key with him. He throws strikes, throws about eighty percent fastballs, and gets outs on fly balls. He gets outs on fly balls? That's risky isn't it? Well, the answer is yes, but not at SafeCo Field. Kyle Seager hit a home run last night that Shin Soo-Choo caught at the warning track. Blake Beavan uses the Safe to his advantage, and that makes him a great fit for the back end of the M's rotation. While he may not be a long-term option, his consistency will help ease the transition of the M's rotation from average to elite with the introduction of the big three in the next two years.

April 22: Kevin Millwood (0-0, 6.30) vs. John Danks (1-2, 4.82)

To me, Kevin Millwood means consistency when I hear his name mentioned. His last start did quite a bit to refute that. Entering the fifth inning with an 8-1 lead, he left it with the lead nearly gone. The Mariners went on to lose that game, and blow yet another opportunity to improve and learn how to win. Millwood needs to improve on Sunday. The Mariners will need him to pitch six solid innings, since a Mariner killer takes the hill for the White Sox. John Danks sucks. But whenever he opposes the Mariners, he somehow flips a switch and pitches like an absolute boss. Last year, Danks started 0-8. Even with those struggles, he managed to rise to the occasion against the Mariners and shut them down. The Mariners have a good chance to show continued improvement in this series, especially against a guy like Danks.

Three to watch:

Michael Saunders: Through 13 games, these are the Condor's numbers: .225, one homer, five RBIs, six runs scored, and two stolen bases. Pretty meh if you ask me. This is about what we've come to expect from Saunders over the last few years. That being said, those numbers are pretty elastic early on in the year and will likely swing one way or another. This series could really contribute to that swing. Saunders has hit the ball hard in 2012. Of his nine hits, four are doubles, and he has the one homer. So he's not just punching jam shots in between right field and second base. He's cranking the ball. If he can keep ripping it, his average will increase. This weekend could start that upswing.

Brendan Ryan: Of the nine regulars that have played at least ten games in 2012, Brendan Ryan's .200 batting average ranks second lowest. Now take those same nine regulars and examine on base percentage. Brendan Ryan leads the Mariners with a .349 on base percentage. What the hell? That's a weird stat. Ryan has just as many walks (seven) as hits. That's great patience from a number nine hitter who usually swings pretty freely. His OPS among those regulars only trails Kyle Seager as well. Brendan Ryan is hitting .200, but has pretty gaudy stats outside of that, thanks to his walks. He can really help the Mariners by keeping that up. He already has, scoring a team high ten runs.

AJ Pierzynski: The White Sox's long time backstop has started off the year absolutely en fuego. His numbers: .400, four homers, 13 RBIs, .829 slugging percentage, and a whopping 1.250 OPS. Quite a revival for a guy clearly in the twilight of his career. He's kind of a legendary douche though, so I hope the Mariners end his hot start this weekend. Plus, as a Mariner fan, I can't stand catchers hitting well. That's cheating right?

Series Outlook:

The Mariners have the advantage in this series. They have better pitchers, are playing at home, and the White Sox have lost four of five. Yet somehow, they always find a way to screw that up. Hector Noesi versus Chris Sale will provide a lot of intrigue, but I think Noesi will pitch slightly better and the M's offense will have plenty of motivation after last night's nap of a game. M's win 5-3. Game two features Mr. Consistency Blake Beavan against the obscurity of Phil Humber. I'm leaning Beavan here. Seven solid from him, followed by Tom Wilhelmsen and Charlie Furbush after the M's blow it open. M's win 7-2. On Sunday, the Sox will be out for revenge, and John Danks is pitching, which usually ends poorly for the Mariners. The M's bats take a nice Sunday golf nap, and Danks beats them 5-0. That would leave Seattle at 9-8, with some hope of staying over five hundred through April, before heading out on a rough road trip. #FreeJaso. Go M's.

The Three Amigos, Round Two

By Anthony

If you couldn’t judge from the title, I will once again be breaking down the three dudes who aren’t named Felix or Jason in the starting rotation. Here is a hint, there has been some shake up, aided by some ridiculous Mariners offense, ridiculous meaning not getting shut out of course. It’s still an offense one year out from being TURRIBLE. Without further ado and jokes about offense, lets talk some pitching.

Hector Noesi

I don’t know if he took some emergency strike throwing classes, taught by Blake Beavan, but something was definitely different. He looked a lot more comfortable and confident on the mound. Of course, he has now faced the best offense in the league in a park that favors hitters and faced one of the worst in Safeco. So that skews his stats, but what cannot be ignored is the result this week. A shut out is good against anyone, besides the Mariners last year (let the M’s offense jokes continue!). He got a bunch of fly balls and many of those were infield pop ups. You know what happens to fly balls in Safeco? They usually turn into outs. You know what happens to infield pop-ups in anywhere but Williamsport? They are outs. PITCHf/x from fangraphs tells me that he threw a bunch of two seam fastballs, many more than against Texas. Huzzah! A lot of those went for strikes, yay! Strikes are good, Wooooo! (Just for Patrick). He gets an A, because he did not throw a perfect game. Yeah, I am a strict teacher, get over it.

Blake Beavan

Hmmmmm…. Lets see here, throws a bunch of strikes, pitches to contact, doesn’t walk anyone and gives up a few runs. That is the stereotypical Blake Beavan start. And what do you know? He did that against the A’s. Threw a few more breaking pitches but all in all this was a normal start for Blake. There is really not much to say about it. I guess that’s good? In the space remaining I am supposed to talk about Blake, I want to talk about Hisashi Iwakuma. Here are my guesses as to where he has been. 4% chance he was accidentally killed and there is an elaborate cover up going on to keep the Asian fan base. 40% chance Wedge forgot he existed and thinks he is just another one of Ichiro’s interpreters who likes to sit in the bullpen. 16% chance he was caught trying to lead a mutiny against Wedge with John Jaso and Muenori Kawasaki. 20% chance he has just gotten lost on the way from the bullpen to the field and was really supposed to have pitched like 5 times. 10% chance he has fallen in love with the Northwest and quit the team to work on a fishing trawler in the Bering Sea. The M’s are just hoping he doesn’t end up on Deadliest Catch, which would awkward for a lot of people. And the final 10% chance is that he has been jeff Gray-ed, another Bud Selig rule imposed on the M’s. One pitcher can only pitch once a month in the bullpen. Anyway, Blake Beavan gets a B. Such a Blake Beavan grade.

Kevin Millwood

How the tables have turned Kevin Millwood. In one of your many ex-home stadiums you were awesome. In your current stadium you sucked. I will come out and say it, that was a terrible start. He labored through 4 innings and let the Indians back in the game. I will be honest; I did not watch the game after the M’s put up 8. But I had some Big League Boys to coach in intramural softball. But from the stats, he gave up a bunch of line drives. You know what line drives often turn into? Hits. Hits are bad if you are pitching, not nearly as good as ground balls or pop fly’s. His strike percentage was actually not bad, its just his strikes got hit hard as opposed to in Texas. Maybe the Rangers were just trying to make him look good since they felt bad about him leaving. Also, not to throw Wedge under the bus here but why was he kept in that long? I know Wedge thinks he is really good at damage control, but you couldn’t call up the bullpen and tell someone to get loose just in case? Hisashi Iwakuma, if he is still on the team, would love to play some catch. So would Erasmo Ramirez. Its not like once they start getting warm they have to come in. Come on Wedge, you are smarter then that I hope. Or just know Bud Selig’s stupid Mariners-only rules better than us. Millwood gets a D, not an F because he did make it through 4 but still sucked.

So there are the grades for the Three Amigos. They seem pretty consistent and I guess that’s good. Blake Beavan was Blake Beavan. Hector Noesi had fun with Jesus Montero and pitched awesome, suck it Yankees! And Kevin Millwood was an old bag of suckiness, big surprise. Go M’s.

At Least They're Not Detroit: Indians Series Preview

By Patrick

Hey Cleveland! Welcome to Seattle! Those tall things? Those are mountains. Oh, wait, you mean those?….those are buildings. You guys don't have those in Cleveland? Oh, they're usually abandoned? Oh, OK, makes sense. Sorry about Lebron.

The only reason I was so harsh on Cleveland just now is that Cleveland really has been pretty harsh to the Mariners in the past. Eduardo Perez and Ben Broussard really look good this year, but I think I'd still take Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera. I hate you Bill Bavasi. Moreover, the last time Cleveland came to Seattle (last April), they swept away the Mariners in convincing fashion. Yet another reason to hate Cleveland (I mean the Indians).

Anyway, the Mariners enter their second home series of the season with a 6-5 record, including a 5-2 record against Oakland. Cleveland boasts a 4-4 record and are coming off of a road series against the Royals during which they scored at least eight runs in all three games, sweeping the series. Obviously, that makes the Indians 1-4 against non-Royal opponents. That makes them eerily similar to the Mariners. Cool. Three game series, three pitching match ups.

April 17: Kevin Millwood (0-0, 1.50) vs. Justin Masterson (0-1, 2.77)

Justin Masterson is a really good young pitcher. Kevin Millwood was a really good young pitcher in 1995. But on Tuesday, the youngster will oppose the 38-year old as the two make their third and second starts of the season respectively. OK, so Masterson is 27, which technically is older than Felix. I would never call Felix a youngster. Therefore, Justin Masterson is relatively young. He's also the Indians ace on a staff that includes Derek Lowe and Ubaldo Jimenez. That's rather impressive. Per ESPN, Masterson has a 2-0 record with an ERA around 2.50 in five career starts against Seattle. Shit. I don't like that. But I did like Kevin Millwood's start against Texas. That was awesome. Plus, John Jaso got him the win that night. Also awesome. #FreeJaso

April 18: Jason Vargas (1-1, 3.44) vs. Derek Lowe (2-0, 1.98)

Derek Lowe has an appropriate last name when it comes to his current ERA. Wow, that was insightful. Jason Vargas does not possess a last name that in any way correlates with his statistics. That means absolutely nothing. Jason Vargas is inconsistent sometimes. Derek Lowe has always struck me as a consistently very good pitcher. That could pose problems or help. Vargas could pitch like Dr. Jason and 2-hit the Indians while Lowe give up three or four runs. Then again, Jason could pitch like Mr. Vargas and give up six runs in two innings while Low gives up one or two runs. It feels like a crapshoot, especially against a good offense like Cleveland's. To be fair however, Vargas has pitched with much greater consistency this year than Mariner fans have come to expect in the last few years.

April 19: Larry Bernandez (1-1, 3.80) vs. Josh Tomlin (0-1, 8.31)

Wouldn't it be awesome if Felix sported the sideburns and glasses for this game? Just a fantasy I guess. It would be a huge "fuck you" to Josh Tomlin if Felix's alter ego beat him. Although that 8.31 ERA serves as a big enough "fuck you" already. I think it's fair to say that Felix holds an advantage in this matchup. Although Felix hasn't been vintage Felix so far in 2012. I think a bad start here would cause legitimate worry about his arm. That velocity, which still hangs around 93 MPH, needs to keep increasing. A win here would be a great confidence booster for the King, who has only pitched against Oakland so far. I sincerely hope the Mariners hit Josh Tomlin. He just seems like one of those not so good pitchers that would shut us down. A Bruce Chen type pitcher.

Three to watch:

Chone Figgins: Geoff Baker wrote a great column about Figgins taking a bunch of pitches at the plates this year. He takes an average of about five and a half pitches per at bat in his first at bat in 2012. That's really awesome. At the very least, he makes pitchers work hard to get him out. He's still getting out a bit too much though, as his OBP has dipped to .298 after recent struggles. I'm still supporting him as the leadoff hitter though, mostly because I like what Ichiro has done in the three-hole. If Figgy can get one hit a game, I'll be OK with that. In this series, I want him to create at least two runs with his special abilities. Those abilities include speed, line-drive singles, count-working, and being a piece of shit. That last one won't help, but I hope the other three will. He'll be vital to a Mariner series win.

Brandon League: Brandon League's meltdown week that killed his momentum last year culminated in a grand slam from Travis Hafner, who hit the pitch with his eyes closed. The Mariners don't win a lot of games by more than three runs, especially against good hitting teams. Therfore, League will play a pivotal role in wins for the M's this week. He's four for four in 2012 so far, and has been fantastic in six appearances, allowing just five base runners. Fortunately, this series is at home. League's appearances technically won't be all or nothing. That relief of pressure should make this series different from his meltdown week last year, which took place on the road.

Jason Kipnis: Kipnis is an interesting case so far in 2012. He leads the Indians with three homers and seven RBIs. He also is dead last in average among regular starters, batting just .188. That confuses me. He's got six hits. Half of his hits are homers. That sort of reminds me of Bucky Jacobsen. That's not a good comparison, unless you're participating in a beard growing contest. The point with Kipnis is it seems like he'll either be really easy to handle or at one point he'll really make the Mariners pay. I'm hopeful that it will be the former.

Series Outlook:

These three games will test the Mariners. It's their first games of the season against a ham sandwich team. The Rangers are very very good. The A's are very very not good. The Indians are ham sandwich. Not bad, but not too flashy. Accordingly, the M's should win at least once, especially at home. Will game one be the once? Probably not. Justin Masterson sets up nicely against a Mariner lineup that hits ground balls, and so does Derek Lowe in game two. I'll take the Indians 4-2 in game one and then, after Vargas' first stinker of the year, 9-3 in game two. Felix will pitch Felix-ish on Thursday though, and the M's will avoid the sweep, winning 5-2. #FreeJaso. Go M's.

Where in the World Is Hisashi Iwakuma?

By Patrick

Eleven games into the 2012 season, the Seattle Mariners are 6-5. In those eleven games, every member of the opening day 25-man roster has appeared at least once, with the exception of one player. Hisashi Iwakuma, who many expected to provide stability and experience in the Mariner rotation in 2012, has yet to pitch this season.

Why is that? It seems as if the M's have buried Iwakuma in their bullpen. One could make the argument that the M's haven't needed him. But since every other reliever has pitched at least twice (with the exception of the newly recalled Charlie Furbush), there clearly have been chances for Iwakuma to get involved. However, Eric Wedge has opted for Lucas Luetge or Erasmo Ramirez in situations where Iwakuma could have contributed.

This is alarming. It's especially alarming since the Mariners pay Iwakuma more than anyone else in the bullpen besides Brandon League. Iwakuma represents a completely wasted $1.5 million so far this year.

Iwakuma not pitching also completely contradicts the typical Mariner strategy, especially in a year that no one really gives a crap about like 2012. Following blowing money on a wild card contract, the M's almost always try to milk all the value they possibly can out of that particular player. We say it with Carlos Silva. It happened with Milton Bradley, Richie Sexson, and its happening now with Chone Figgins. So far at least, it seems like no one cares about Iwakuma's contract, the ninth-biggest on the team.

With all due respect to Wedge, why hasn't Iwakuma pitched yet? It seems bone-headed to me. This guy was the best pitcher in Japan in 2008. Yu Darvish pitched in Japan in 2008. Iwakuma could be a stud. He also could continue to suck like he did in spring training. But we don't know that yet! Wedge hasn't let him pitch!

What is Wedge waiting for with Iwakuma? A game where the Mariners have absolutely no chance early on? I mean, maybe. But that would only give Iwakuma free reign rot screw up and not feel bad about it.

And it's not like the alternatives are too much better. Lucas Luetge? Steve Delabar? Charlie Furbush? Those names don't exactly excited anyone (unless you're Yoenis Cespedes, in which case Steve Delabar excites you immensely). Why has Delabar pitched three times and Luetge twice? Why do I have the feeling that when one of the M's starters gets rocked early on that Wedge will turn to Furbush instead of Iwakuma?

Maybe Iwakuma will suck. Maybe he'll get hit all over the place and prove he was a waste of money. That would annoy me, but at least Mariner fans would know that Iwakuma in fact sucks. At the moment, we don't know that. All we have to go on is his terrible spring and awful outing against the Yomiuri Giants, where he gave up six runs in four innings.


That game against Yomiuri basically doomed Iwakuma. It buried him in the roster. It solidified him as player number 25. All of a sudden, the best pitcher in the second-best league in the world in 2008 is the worst player on one of the worst teams in the best league in the world. That just doesn't make sense, regardless of injury or velocity concerns.

Hisashi Iwakuma needs to pitch. Mariner fans need to know whether that $1.5 million dollars was a waste or not. It does the Mariners a disservice to have a guy just sitting in the pen wasting away. The M's have young pitchers like Chance Ruffin who would love the chance to pitch in the majors again. But until the M's know what Iwakuma can do, they can't make progress with Ruffin or the recovering Shawn Kelley. The M's need to throw Iwakuma into the game this week, otherwise he needs to go on the DL or be released, because he's so far just a waste of space. And young teams trying to take steps forward can't afford to waste time. Go M's.

What's Wrong with the King?

By Anthony

So yeah, this title could be slightly misleading. Felix is 1-1 and has only had one bad start. But he is the King, and has yet to show a super dominating performance we have come to expect from him. He has faced the A’s three times. The A’s! They suck more than we do. He should have had at least one King-like performance. I know I was talking about sample sizes and why we shouldn’t panic earlier, and that still holds, but Felix should and must be better if we want to be average.

Unlike Patrick, who isn’t into using data to prove his points, I do research and look at how things have changed and what is different this year. All my stats come from Fangraphs.com, which is a super awesome site if you are either a baseball fan or a nerd, and as it happens I am kind of both so woooo! [Editor's note: didn't know Anthony was a wooo girl.]

The first thing to recognize is that Felix’s velocity is dropping. I am told he hit 94 a few times last night, which is encouraging, but his average velocity is still in the 91 range. That is not good. When a pitcher does not have excellent command, they need to be able to throw hard. This offsets their lack of command because they can miss and still get away with it. We are seeing some of this with Felix, but that is not the largest reason why he has not been great.

His changeup is excellent, like one of the best in the league. I love watching batters swing over the top of it and look silly (What’s up Yoenis Cespedes!). However, a changeup needs to be set up the right way for it to be effective. The most common and effective way is to throw hard and get the batter worried about getting thrown past. Felix has not been doing a great job at that, but he is still throwing his change 41% of the time. I will say that again. 41% of the time, Felix throws a changeup. This is ridiculous; he has not come close to that number before in his career. That is not good for him. Yeah it’s his best pitch, but a change up cannot be thrown 41% of the time if it is going to be effective.

So how can he get better? Felix, throw your sinker more! Please! It gets a bunch of ground balls. You know what happens a lot to ground balls? They become outs! Last year and in 2010 he threw his sinker about 30% of the time. He is throwing it 8.6% of the time this year. Really though? It is a pitch that has proven effective before and that is an indicator that it will be effective again. There is an old saying, “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.” Why are you trying to change Felix? Please throw your sinker more! I am on my hands and knees (not really, my floor is pretty gross). That is a large reason why he is getting hit hard.

So Felix has shut down the A’s, done a decent job and gotten shelled. Is it time to hit the panic button? No, but too bad. I already did. He is getting predictable and dumb with his changeup and not throwing his sinker enough. If he can fix that, he can destroy the A’s. Like literally, Cespedes will run, then swim, then run again back to his mother in Cuba. The A’s shouldn’t be able to touch Felix and they have. That is why I am hitting the panic button. And why I am telling Felix how to get better. Go M's.

No Home-O: M's A's part three

I've done four of these now. I've written about two teams. This is my third A's preview. I'm really tired of writing about the worst team in the American League. Ironically, two years ago I would have had to quit the blog to avoid writing about the AL's worst team. Get it? Because the Mariners sucked. They still kind of suck, but it's sort of a hopeful sucking more than a "this is going to go on forever" sucking. I digress.

The M's will play Oakland for the fifth, sixth, and seventh times this season while playing their ninth, tenth, and eleventh games of the season this weekend. That's a whole lot of Oakland. Which is good, because Oakland sucks. If all of Yoenis Cespedes' homers were eliminated, the A's wouldn't even look remotely respectable (hey Steve Delabar, throw a good pitch for once). Anyhow, three games means three match ups.

April 13: Felix (1-0, 4.40) vs. The Fossil fucking again (1-1, 5.84)

The home opener! Woohoo! Happy Felix day everybody. This is the third time the Mariners have faced Bartolo Colon in 2012. Nine games, three fossils. That's nuts. Although this is the third time the A's have faced Felix, which really sucks for them. The first time the M's opposed the Colon was bad, the second time was great, and who knows what will happen tonight. What I do know is that Felix will be sharp, and so Colon will have to bring his A-game (A stands for ancient, since he's a fossil) to win. With the M's crowd and the King's court in full effect, the team will have all the support they need to push their record back over .500.

April 14: Hector Noesi (0-1, 21.00) vs. Tommy Millone (1-0, 0.00)

To be honest, I had never heard of Tommy Millone before writing this. I forgive you if you haven't either. However, I'm told he threw eight shutout innings again the Royals in his A's debut. Wow. That's quite good. Hector Noesi threw 2/3 shutout innings against the Rangers in his Mariner debut. Then he gave up seven in the next 2 1/3. So that was bad. Noesi seems to have a lot of work to do before solidifying his spot in the M's rotation. His location was just awful on Monday, and that needs to change. Maybe pitching against an unthreatening lineup (minus Cespedes) like the A's will help him to adjust to his role as a starter better. The home crowd supporting him and not rabidly cheering at every hit he gives up could help too. The M's fans probably won't boo him if he struggles.

April 15: Blake Beavan (0-1, 1.42) vs. maybe Graham Godfrey (0-1, 3.00)

The A's have only had four starting pitcher take the mound this season, and therefore have not announced their starter for Sunday. Graham Godfrey pitched Tuesday, so he would be the most likely starter. With all of the injuries in the A's rotation, they will need to make a few spot starts until Anderson and Braden return. This could easily be one of those. Which certainly favors Blake Beavan, who was sensational in defeat on Tuesday in Texas. His consistency and ability to pitch to contact will carry him through a comfortable afternoon start at home. maybe the M's will hit for Blake if they face a crappy minor leaguer making a spot start.

Three to Watch

Miguel Olivo: Olivo has been terrible this season. Just awful. He's hitting .143. That's bad. He has six strikeouts and four hits. Wow. That sucks. The other day I joked on Twitter than he was day-to-day with a hole in his swing. Seriously, I'm funny on Twitter. Follow me @PTLeary21. But back to Miguel Olivo. If he wants to continue to start, he needs to start hitting. We saw what Montero can do behind the plate. We saw what John Jaso can do at the plate. Fans will call for his head if they haven't already if Miguel can't start hitting. He's got to step up in this series in front of the home fans for the first.

Jemile Weeks: I had to choose an A's hitter, and I've already written about Crisp and Cespedes this year, so I picked Weeks. He's hitting .200 out of the leadoff spot, which makes Chone Figgins look like an all-star. Speaking of which, I will now begin my campaign for Figgins for the 2012 all-star game , regardless of how he plays for the rest of the season. Anyway, Jemile Weeks has the ability to wreck havok if he gets on base. He can swipe bags and score from second on hard hit singles and from first on quickly fielded doubles. His speed is only useful if he gets on base more than one out of five times.

Dustin Ackley: The heir apparent of the Mariners offense has had quiet start to the 2012 season. He's hitting .258 with a homer in game one and four RBIs, two of which took place in game one. As you can see, game one was great, and game two through eight were not so great. Now he gets to come home to a fan base that adores him and trusts him unconditionally with the future of the offense. Ackley needs to impress this weekend to show that he is avoiding the dreaded sophomore slump.

Series Outlook:

The A's suck. The Mariners suck less and play really well against Oakland. If they get anything less than a sweep, it will be a bit of a disappointment. It will be flat out embarrassing if they lose more than once. I don't think they will lose more than one. Felix against Colon should be a walkover. It could easily not be though, since the M's suck in season openers. I'll take the M's, 6-3. Hector Noesi is pitching in game two. Hector Noesi did not pitch well in Texas. He may pitch well in Seattle. Let's hope he does. He needs to hit his spots. I'm not sure he will. Plus, Tommy Millone looked like a world beater in his first start. I think the A's will get this one, because Noesi will struggle again. A's win game two, 6-4. In game three, we don't know who will pitch for Oakland. We do know that Blake Beavan will pitch for Seattle. He looked great in Texas, and should look even better against crappy ass Oakland. M's win, 5-1. They take two of three. #FreeJaso. Go M's.

Grading Starters Three through Five

By Anthony

The Mariners have played three games against one of the best teams in baseball and all three have been winnable. This article would be much more angry if they couldn’t come back against a Joe Nathan who couldn’t locate a fastball. But from a pitching side of things this series has been 66% awesome. I will grade how the three people who we didn’t know much about did against one of the best lineups in baseball

Hector Noesi

There was very little good to take from Noesi’s first start. He only made it through 3 innings, threw 85 pitches and had a K/BB ratio of one. This is a far cry from the pitcher we thought we were getting for Jose Campos and Michel Pineda. I would like to play this off as rookie nerves against one of the best lineups in the league, sample sizes and what not, but just in watching pieces of the game, he seemed like he did not know where the ball was going. He was consistently behind in counts, which forced him more into a fastball-changeup pitcher than he was in the Yanks bullpen. That is not good; his changeup isn’t great but he couldn’t command either his slider or curveball so he had no choice. Hopefully he can work on the command of his breaking pitches because without them he is in trouble and probably in Tacoma or the bullpen. He gets a D and not a F because it was the Rangers and his debut.

Blake Beavan

This is probably the best start that can be expected from Beavan. For a guy with a 90 MPH fastball and not great secondary stuff who has to pitch to contact, and then has to face the Rangers in Texas, this was phenomenal. He kept the game close and limited the damage with the only run scoring on an infield single. He did what Blake Beavan always does, threw a lot of strikes and a lot of 1st pitch strikes. Hopefully Noesi can take note of his 70% first strikes to the Rangers. Beavan gets an A- because he pitched incredible and if the offense didn’t suddenly remember that they were the Mariners, he would have won.

Kevin Millwood

I saw the end of the first inning (I have class that ends at 5:15) and was not pleased with what I saw. Then I got something to eat and settled in to watch on of the better pitching performances I have seen this year. He pounded the zone, got lots of groundballs and was very effective. Pitchers do much better when they are able to get ahead in the count on hitters. Steve Delabar sucked because he hung a slider and then fell behind to Elvis Andrus and was not smart. Millwood was effective because he got ahead of the Rangers and was able to use his secondary stuff to beat them. This may just be me noticing weird things, but his pitching motion looks weird, like he is really trying to throw the ball over the top. This may help him or hurt him, but his release point is very high. Anyway, if he can pitch like that all year, this team could be .500. Not many #5 starters can do that and he deserves an A since I did not expect him to shut down the Rangers, and since the team was able to come back. #FreeJaso. Go M’s.

Texas Toast: Rangers Series Preview

Wow. The M's are 3-1. That's great news! They beat Oakland in those games. Not nearly as good of news. They have to play four games in Texas now. Bad news. Sure, the Rangers don't look like world beaters yet, but they've only played three games. To make matters worse, the only Mariner starter that won't throw in Arlington this week is Felix. So this series will certainly test the revamped rotation for the first time. Four games means four pitching showdowns.

April 9th: Hector Noesi vs. Yu Darvish

Darvish makes his major league debut while Noesi makes his Mariner debut and just his third career start. This means a few things. Neither team really knows how to hit either pitcher yet. No major league data exists on Darvish, and very lithe exists on Noesi. These guys are both unproven entities that will get tested for the first time on Monday. While the world will focus on Darvish, Noesi's debut is the more intriguing storyline for me. The Rangers have a top flight offense, and Noesi will get a real challenge in his first start as a Mariner. Darvish will pitch against a below average offense, so the result won't be nearly as telling. If Noesi pitches well, M's fans will rejoice regardless of the game's final score.

April 10th: Blake Beavan vs. Neftali Feliz

Two seasons ago, the Rangers sent Beavan to the M's in the Cliff Lee trade that helped them make their first ever World Series. Neftali Feliz was the closer for that team as a rookie. Flash forward to present day, and the two will duel in Texas in game two of the second series of the season. Feliz will make his first start as a full-fledged member of the Ranger rotation, while Beavan hopes to prove he belongs in a big league rotation. Feliz has terrifying stuff, but can he stretch out all of that ability over 30 starts in a full season? That will be the biggest question facing him this season. The M's will probably be the best-case scenario to begin such a transition. Beavan won't go down without a fight, but he definitely is a step down from most big league pitchers. He needs to show off rock solid consistency in order to stay with the M's all season.

April 11th: Kevin Millwood vs. Colby Lewis (1-0, 3.00)

The journeyman versus the anointed ace. Millwood made the M's rotation as a non-roster invitee to spring training after looking pretty impressive in a few appearances. Millwood must confront and diffuse questions about his age relative to his effectiveness in order to succeed in 2012. Colby Lewis on the other hand was named ace by default after C.J Wilson went to Anaheim in the winter. The Rangers truly don't have anybody else to take this spot from him though, and that could potentially hurt them this year as they try to make their third straight world series. Lewis usually dominates the M's historically and this one probably won't be any different.

April 12th: Jason Vargas (1-0, 2.31) vs. Derek Holland (0-0, 4.50)

Jason Vargas will make his league-high third start of the season on Thursday. Vargas has pitched like a number two starter in his first two appearances. He's posted a solid ERA but hasn't hit seven innings in either of his starts. So the jury is still out on Vargas. Holland threw six innings in his first start of the year last on Saturday, allowing three runs and getting a no decision in a Rangers loss. Both men don't fit the profile of a number two starter, so both have a lot to prove in 2012. Holland still has his awesome mustache though. Maybe that gives him the leg up.

Three to watch:

1. Chone Figgins: How can I choose anyone else? As I wrote yesterday, Figgins had a torrent weekend in Oakland. The M's needed that, because middle of the order mashers Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero combined for only three hits, all of them singles. That's bad. Figgins needs to continue to get on base and wreck havoc for the M's to have a legit shot of splitting let alone winning the road series in Texas. Gotta love his .412 average for now though.

2. Adrian Beltre: Buster Olney called Beltre and his teammate Elvis Andrus the best defensive left-side of any infield in baseball on Twitter yesterday. I agree. Mariners fans look back at the Adrian Beltre era with mixed emotions, but no one can argue that his defense didn't help win the M's games even when his strikeouts didn't. I will never forget the brick wall commercial that always kept me laughing and feeling good about having the toughest defensive third baseman in baseball. After leaving Seattle, Adrian also rapidly improved his hitting, becoming a perennial all-star with Boston and now Texas. He could give the M's a ton of trouble with his pop and defense this week.

3. Justin Smoak: Many Rangers scouts and fans thought Smoak would be their next offensive superstar in the hitters park that is the Ballpark in Arlington. Two years after being traded to the M's along with Beavan in the aforementioned Cliff Lee deal, Smoak returns to Arlington for the first time in 2012 needing a breakout year. One for eight with an RBI single in Oakland won't cut it for the rest of the year. He needs to drive the ball and get on base. He needs to rack up RBIs. He needs to go deep twice this week for the M's to have a shot in Arlington.

Series Outlook:

All indications point towards this series being a rude awakening for the Mariners, as they see for the first time in 2012 how good baseball teams play. Texas probably send their four most talented pitchers to the hill, while Felix misses the entire series. The Texas offense is on another planet relative to the Mariners' hitting, and so the M's will struggle to keep up without rock solid pitching. I see three out of four of these games going to Texas. Darvish out-debuts Noesi and the Rangers take game one 6-2. Beavan and the bullpen prevail in game two as the M's get to Neftali Feliz early and take it 5-3. Millwood pitches valiantly in game three but the M's can't touch Colby Lewis and the Rangers take game three 5-1. Game four comes down to Jason Vargas' split personalities. I have to think Mr. Vargas will rear his ugly head sometime soon. This seems like a probable time. Rangers win game four, 7-2.

I hope I'm wrong though. It would be great to see the M's ride their momentum and be over .500 coming back to Seattle for the home opener. May the Figgins be with you, and Go M's.