Break up the Big Three? And to the Royals?

By Patrick

Winter is coming. By winter, I mean three really good pitchers

In 2014-ish, the Mariners should have one of the most formidable young rotations in baseball, with an extended Felix Hernandez joined by any number of four young pitchers who have proven themselves to be studs at the minor league level. The three superstars of the Mariners' system are Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton, affectionately referred to as the Big Three. They're basically LeBron, Wade, and Bosh, except they play baseball, haven't won a championship, and haven't played at the major league level yet. However, all that should change in 2013, when all three will likely make their debuts in Seattle. Hultzen may break camp with the team, whereas Walker and Paxton will likely start in AAA.

All of this means that the future is getting closer by the second. The Mariners window for future success is almost open. And at least at this point, the offense doesn't appear ready to seize that opportunity when it comes. However, the Mariners could drastically bolster their offense by trading young pitching for young hitting, much like they did when they acquired Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda last January. In theory, if a move like that were to occur, the M's would have to throw in one of the Big Three to get maximum value out of such a deal. The question, should they?

According to Geoff Baker and Buster Olney in a compiled report on MLBTradeRumors.com, the Royals have actively been scouting Paxton in the Arizona Fall League. For those who don't remember the eight games between the Mariners and Royals in 2012, the Royals cannot pitch for shit. In two four-games series in July, the M's scored 52 runs. Jesus Montero hit like .600. The Mariners beat Bruce Chen. THE MARINERS BEAT BRUCE CHEN! The Royals, by extension, need pitching, and not just rent-a-pitching, but young, talented pitching that can contribute for years to come.

The Mariners have a similar need, except that theirs is on the hitting side. The Mariners need some young, talented hitting that will actually contribute (Justin Smoak doesn't count) for years to come. Ironically, the Royals have a surplus in this area. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon and to a certain extent, Billy Butler fit the Mariners area of need quite well.

Of those four, Alex Gordon stands out as a perfect candidate for the Mariners to trade for. Gordon has hit .303 and .294 the last two seasons while missing a grand total of 12 games. He missed one game last season. He's also a gap power left fielder who can run fairly well.

In case you don't understand part of the reason this blog is named Way Out In Left Field, the Mariners have only had two players in franchise history log 150 games in left field in one season. The only good left fielder the Mariners have ever had was Raul Ibanez. That's it and that's all. A player like Gordon could change that.

But is the likely price of Paxton and another much younger prospect worth the move for the Mariners? Maybe. Paxton is certainly the "Chris Bosh" of the super threesome, having struggled with some injuries and ultimately projected as the "worst" of the Big Three. Would just two super awesome young pitchers be enough for the Mariners to work with?

As tempting as Gordon and his fellow teammates are on paper, the Mariners have to hold on to their entire core of young pitching. If the Royals would except Erasmo Ramirez in place of Paxton, then maybe Jack Z pulls the trigger. However, the motto in all four of Jack Z's years with the organization has been building from within and eventually winning with that talent. Young hitters like Mike Zunino, Stefan Romero and Nick Franklin offer hope that with additions of quality veteran free agents, the Mariners can win without having to deal the deep pitching that will take them to the next level.

As the San Francisco Giants are showing in the World Series right now, pitching depth is huge once the playoffs begin. The Giants have four quality starters, and a fifth with two Cy Youngs on his resume that bridges the gap from starters to shut down relievers. The Mariners will have all of those by 2014. For now, they need young hitters to continue to progress to get them to the playoffs. What they can't afford to do is deal one of the Big Three and risk losing out on an incredible talent for the seasons in their window of opportunity. As tempting as Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas are, Tai Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton are ours, and you can't have them. Go Mariners.

2012 was a success only if 2013 is better

By Patrick

2010 was a simpler time. Also, Carlos Silva and Ryan Langerhans.

Now that I've had about three weeks to separate myself from the Mariners 75-win 2012 campaign, it's about time I sit back and reflect on what took place and what it means for the franchise's future.

The Mariners embarked up their 35th season in franchise history with little hope of contending, and early on in the year, the team dashed what small hopes they had. By the end of June, the team was 12 games under .500, and not a threat to contend. Chone Figgins went from opening day starter to situation pinch runner. Felix Hernandez struggled, and Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan still looked like AAA pitchers. The offense hit well on the road, but went ice cold at home in the thick, marine air.

However, things changed in July, about a week or so after the all-star break. In a month where the Mariners had dropped a franchise record 17 straight games just a year before, the team surged. The Mariners embarked on a stretch of a little over a month where they had multiple seven-game winning streaks, won 15 out of 16 at home, and nearly clawed back to .500. Jason Vargas was AL pitcher of the month in July and following his perfect game, Felix Hernandez won the same award in August. The M's played five games over .500 in the two months. Jesus Montero, Kyle Seager, Michael Saunders and the boys started to swing the bats, and fans got a glimpse of what a successful, young baseball team  looks like. Ironically, this all happened after the Mariners traded away the face of the franchise, Ichiro, to the Yankees for two prospects who may never see the majors.

In September, the team came back to earth, going 11-18 after September 1. The young team became discouraged with losing once again, and the contenders in the division that had a real chance at a playoff spot fought for it and took it from the M's. Incredibly, Justin Smoak hit the crap out of the ball in the season's final month, rescuing a doomed .185 average and raising it 30 points. The M's finished with eight double-digit home run hitters for the first time in a decade, and Seager posted a respectable .259/20/86 season in the triple crown categories. Felix limped to the finish, knocking himself out of Cy Young contention with four horrible starts in the season's final month. The Mariners finished 75-87, winning eight more games than in 2011, the first year of the Eric Wedge era.

Overall, the 2012 season was a step in the right direction for the Mariners. The young players like Seager, Saunders, Montero, Smoak and Ackley got another season under their belts, and regardless of how shitty it might have been for some of them, they at least got to see a full season of major league pitching. John Jaso was an absolute delight, leading the team in batting after coming from the Rays in exchange for everybody's friendly neighborhood sodomist, Josh Lueke. Vargas had the best season of his career, Felix threw perfect game and nearly won his second Cy Young, Hisashi Iwakuma shined as a starter in the second half, and even Blake Beavan went 11-11 (that's real. check it.). The team found out that Brandon League couldn't close and Tom Wilhelmsen and his nasty hammer curve could. They also debuted young bullpen arms like Carter Capps, Stephen Pryor, and Lucas Luetge, who all appear to have bright futures with the franchise.

The Mariners also found out a few things the hard way. Chone Figgins helped the Mariners realize he's not a major league baseball player any more. The entire offense helped the Mariners to see that the fences need to come in if home runs are to be a part of April and May baseball at Safeco. Miguel Olivo reminded the franchise that he's, well, Miguel Olivo, and .222/12/29 is what he's been doing his entire career. Carlos Peguero, Luis Jimenez, and Alex Liddi reminded the franchise why they've been in AAA for so long. Mike Carp made the organization forget about last August by being hurt all year and sucking when he seemed healthy. Hector Noesi absolutely tanked all year, and doesn't look like a major league starter. Kevin Millwood somehow made it through the season at 6-12, even though he came out of about five games with injuries and had almost zero upside at 37 years old.

The question then becomes, where do the Mariners go from here? 75 wins is only acceptable if it becomes a number in the 80's the next season. The team needs to keep improving. Sure, the youngsters will get better as they approach their primes, but for 2013, just relying on Seager, Ackley, and Montero to kick it up a notch won't be good enough. The team needs to pursue quality, veteran free agents that will bring a culture of winning back to Seattle, and eventually put some more butts in the Safeco Field seats, which were filled about half as much in 2012 as they were in 2002.

The Mariners can win 80 games in 2013, but only if they show a strong commitment to continue this upward trend of wins from within and outside of the organization. That requires everyone involved, from the players to the manager to the GM all the way up to Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln, to give their best effort to make this team into a winner. Frankly, I don't know if that's going to happen. But if it does, some great things could happen in Seattle in 2013. Go M's.

Here are my 2012 season awards:

MVP: Felix

Pitcher of the year: Felix

Hitter of the year: Seager

Reliever of the year: Wilhelmsen

Rookie of the year: Iwakuma

Captain Clutch: Jaso

Most Inspirational: Munenori Kawasaki

LVP (L is for least): Figgins

Worst Pitcher: Noesi

Worst Hitter: Figgins

Worst Reliever: Steve Delabar

Least Inspirational: Figgins

Projecting the 2013 Lineup:

By: Anthony

Once again Patrick and I have dropped the ball on providing consistent content. I have been on a beard quest in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and Patrick has, well, been busy. He has already projected the 2013 rotation and I will now take on the more daunting task of projecting the 2013 starting lineup. Note: I will be incorrectly assuming that the Mariners take the same position players they had this year into next year because of the infinite possibilities of signings and trade Jack Z could make. If you want to read my offseason plan for the Mariners, here it is.

Jaso

Smoak

Ackley

Ryan

Seager

Wells

Gutierrez

Saunders

Montero

Carp

Franklin

Robinson

Catricala

The definition of a successful beard quest

Catcher

John Jaso should start, plain and simple. He was one of our best hitters last year with an OPS of .850. He also made a successful beard quest mid-season and was only marginally below average on throwing out base runners with a caught stealing of 20% versus the league average of 26%. Mike Zunino will not be ready to break camp with the team. We do not need to sign a veteran scrap heap guy to break camp with the team. We will for depth purposes so he can sit in AAA and be ready to play if Jaso gets hurt. Our backup will be- drum roll please- Jesus Montero. I understand why people don’t want him to catch, it is not where he will play in the future. But how much damage can another half-season of backing up Jaso until Zunino is ready do? He wasn’t a disaster defensively and we need to get his bat in the lineup as much as possible.

First Base

I really hate Justin Smoak but of course there is nobody in the system right now who can push him for a regular starting spot. It will be a battle between him and Carp for first and Smoak will get more plate appearances because of his September. The team will stick with Smoak until he once again reveals his ineptitude in months that don’t rhyme with Feptember. To fill in his place, Carp and Montero can split reps. Yes, the timing of this will be weird. But once Zunino is called up and displaces Montero from backing up Jaso, Montero will switch to backing up Carp at first base and getting most of his reps at DH.

Second Base

Dustin Ackley will once again get his playing time. We must hope that the most advanced bat in the draft will figure out how to hit and not become a defense first second basemen. Backing him up will be tough to figure out with Nick Franklin knocking on the door in the AFL. With a good spring, Franklin will  fill in at both shortstop and second.

I guess he is kind of good at defense

Short Stop

Brendan Ryan. Is anyone here surprised? He can hit .230 and be an above average player because of his defense. Enough on him and Franklin backs him up.

Third Base-

Kyle Seager should not be a surprise and Chone Figgins should leave. So in the backup role we have Vinnie Catricala. This is what I would call a “power move.” Not in the way that Catricala has tons of power, but after struggling in AAA Tacoma last year he lost much of his prospect shine. He will turn it around and backup Seager and also get some time at first to introduce him to the big leagues.

Pray to any and all deities that he stays healthy

Outfield

Saunders, Wells, Robinson and Gutierrez. I include four people here because of the almost guarantee the Guti gets hurt. Right now Wells, Saunders and Guti will start and Robinson can back them up/ be ready to play once Guti suffers a freak injury that nobody saw coming. Carp can also play left to split time with Robinson post-Guti injury.

This roster will win roughly 75 wins. Almost the exact same as last year, which is the reason why some moves will have to be made and some guys cut loose. But it is good to know that we have enough organizational depth to fill in with talent and let some young guys get their feet wet.

Justin Smoak and Socrates: What they have in common.

By: Anthony

Now that the season is over and the Mariners ended up with a respectable 75 wins, we can now start to project the roster for 2013, an awesome exercise in speculation. One of the biggest questions is of course the hole at first base. I talked about this briefly in both my “What the Future Holds” and “Offseason Free Agent Targets” articles but that was before Justin Smoak looked at a calendar. Going back a step or two, I will explain the title of this article.

             

"How dare you compare me to Justin Smoak!"

Socrates is one of the most famous philosophers in history and was executed by the Greeks for corrupting the youth and impiety. Smoak may have corrupted many young people with his horrible hitting and general suckiness but this isn’t ancient Greece, otherwise Chone Figgins would have already had a hemlock smoothie. Socrates was known as a gadfly, a bug that is really annoying and doesn’t like to go away. A gadfly keeps buzzing around and annoying people. That’s why Justin Smoak is like Socrates, he is a gadfly!

Not only is Justin Smoak bad, but he has a great habit of being really good in September and just god awful for the other 7/8ths of a season. Don’t believe me? Think Justin Smoak is more of a dung beetle (Get it, it’s because he is bad)? I give you the data.

September/ October Stats

Year	Average	OPS	Home Runs	Strikeouts/ BB
2010	.340	1.001	3	11/7
2011	.301	.793	3	20/5
2012	.341	1.005	5	13/13

April- August Stats

Year	Average	OPS	Home Runs	Strikeouts/ BB
2010	.198	.624	10	80/39
2011	.220	.704	12	85/50
2012	.190	.575	14	98/36

The numbers do not lie. Justin Smoak either thinks that Spring Training continues through August or he secretly hibernates April through August. Personally I don’t know which is more feasible, I guess I would take hibernation due to his bear-like appearance.

Half-man, Half-Bear, Half-Gadfly

The affect that his September stats have on reporters, bloggers and fans is that he may have figured it out. Either he finally got healthy or he made a swing alteration or something changed and Smoak is finally living up to the talent level that saw him exchanged for Cliff Lee. I am still very dubious about this year. Smoak has shown a pattern in his hitting and until he proves he can hit April through August, I think he is a bust and should not spend too much more time in Seattle.

            There is good news however for Mariner fans and Smoak. He still has another option year! Huzzah! This means that he can be sent down to Tacoma and not have to clear waivers. So, say in some bizarre world Smoak sucks again at the start of next year (I am willing to accept bets that this happens). The M’s can option him down to Tacoma and let him try to figure it out for a while, free from worry that some team would claim him on waivers (I’m sure Jack Z has nightmares about that).

            Something that Smoak has struggled with is his confidence and many people close to the team have said that Smoak is finally feeling comfortable hitting and the results are starting to show. They are also saying the adjustments he made to his swing in the short time in Tacoma are starting to bear fruit. They are also saying his pregame routine of praying to the shrine of Foghorn Leghorn in his locker has been altered to include both Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck seems to finally be working. Guess what? Some of those things may be true, but it really doesn’t matter. He has shown this before and I will only be convinced he has become a competent Major League player when he hits the ball well from April to August.

            He will benefit from the fences being moved in, like most hitters. And Smoak will get a shot next year at first base, competing with Mike Carp and hopefully Jesus Montero. Carp failed to impress this year, battling injuries most of the year and Montero needs to learn the correct way for a human to run. This year was supposed to be a make or break year for Smoak, but somehow he gets another shot. If this team wants to medal in the AL West next year (a respectable feat these days), Smoak needs to figure out how to hit the ball consistently like he always does in September, or he can just be a gadfly again and annoy people.

What the Future Holds: Third Base

By: Anthony

If you haven’t read my first two pieces on first base and the middle infield, here they are.

Middle Infield

First Base

The hot corner is a feast or famine position. Meaning that teams either have a very good third baseman or a guy who can play there but is a hole in the lineup. For instance, Evan Longoria, David Wright and Adrian Beltre all play 3B for a contender. Know who else plays 3B in the MLB? Joaquin Arias, Brandon Inge and Jordan Pacheco. So the drop off is pretty steep from star to Chone Figgins. But seriously, I will not mention Chone again in this column. I will put 100:1 odds on Chone playing for Seattle next year. You may email me at terriblebets@gmail.com (all emails sent here will not be answered since it is a fake email address).

You're going to talk about me right?

 The Mariners are actually doing awesome here. Understand by awesome I mean that there is a young player who is performing at third base and minor leaguers who are not. Kyle Seager was supposed to be a middle infielder/ utility player. So basically Muenori Kawasaki without the dance moves. But then he shows up this year and takes over our offense, (At least away from Safeco). I could talk about how much I enjoy watching Seager hit, or I could make more Chone Figgins jokes. I’ll let you, the reader, decide. Go ahead, think about it. I’ll wait. (Pondering the life cycle of a western Red Wood tree). Sorry I have been in college this week, so I have been getting super intellectual. Anyway, my favorite Chone Figgins fun facts.

1.     His name is actually Desmond, not Chone for all those confused

2.     He was acquired by the Angels in a trade for Kimera Bartee

3.     He was born in Leary, Georgia

4.     He will not play for the Seattle Mariners next year

Clearly those weren’t in order since Leary, Georgia was mentioned third on that list. But Chone is terrible and according to my sources and instincts, Jack Z resents ever signing him (Seriously, both played a role in that opinion).

Super Stud            

This how much I’ll talk about Kyle Seager. He should and must stay at 3B. He has been solid defensively and has been one of our best hitters. He may be better defensively at 2B, but we already have numerous guys who could play there in the next five years, and we don’t need another one of those players. Our talent pool in the middle infield is much better than at third and Seager has been a bright spot in a relatively uninteresting year.

            So what exactly do we have in our minor league system at 3B? We have Alex Liddi, who I do not think will be able to hang in the MLB, especially with his current K rate. We have Vinnie Catricala, who was the most valuable hitter in the Mariners system last year. Francisco Martinez was hanging around in Jackson and Steven Proscia was basking in the glory of High Desert.

             
Alex Liddi is the first Italian-born player to play in the major leagues. Yay for fun facts! He also hit grand slams in back-to-back games a few years ago in Spring Training. Yay for fun facts! He has a K rate of 38% in 170 major league at-bats. That’s not very fun. And that is why I do not think Alex Liddi will stick with the Mariners. But something I do like from Liddi is that he is only 24 right now and still has a year or so to figure it out. He needs to cut down on his K’s drastically and has to work on getting on base more. His OBP is .278 right now, a pretty mediocre batting average. Liddi certainly has power, his .458 slugging in Tacoma shows that but like most young power hitters he has to drop his K rate to stay on the roster. I think Liddi starts off the year in AAA unless he makes big strides this off-season.

            Vinnie Catricala had never hit below .300 in the Mariners system since he started in rookie ball in 2009. This led to him being lauded as a big prospect for the M’s, that and his OPS being over 1.000 in a 2011 year split between High Desert and Jackson. He was put on the Rainiers to start the year in 2012 and struggled. He hit .229 and had an OPS of .640 in 507 at-bats. It was weird to see him struggle for a few reasons, one of them being that he had not struggled before. Another being that his K rate and BB rate were right about where they had been before in his career. Something I see is that his batting-average-on-balls-in-play dropped about .100 points. Unfortunately there is not very much data available to look at his fly ball and ground ball ratios that would help immensely in analyzing his BABIP. So for now I will just say that the Arizona Fall League will show whether this year was a random aberration of luck or whether Catricala needs another year in Tacoma. I think he will shine in the AFL but won’t make the M’s because of his limited defensive capabilities; he will probably have to shift to left field if he wants to see regular playing time.

            Francisco Martinez was acquired in the Doug Fister trade, one that is looking pretty bad for the M’s right now. Casper Wells is pretty meh and Chance Ruffin struggled in Tacoma. Martinez was supposed to be the best player acquired in that trade for us so hopefully he outperforms Ruffin and Wells. Martinez is a bit different of a 3B than normal. He is more of a speedy, average hitter versus a stocky power hitter that most third basemen are. He had 27 stolen bases this year for Jackson but only hit a pedestrian .227 with an OPS of .610. He also struck out 21% of the time. He clearly needs more seasoning before getting called up. I think he starts in Jackson and moves up when Catricala is called up to Seattle.

            I don’t know what it is about the ACC that the Mariners love, but Proscia is another product of University of Virginia (Joining Danny Hultzen and John Hicks) who saw some time in Jackson last year. He is more of a traditional third basemen in the big power mold. He spent most of his time this year in High Desert where he did what most people do in High Desert. He hit .330 with an OPS of .930 with a slugging percentage of .564. His K rate is still about 20% which is normal. Most power hitters sit around that but I would like to see him get that number around 15% before he gets to the higher levels. He should start the year in Jackson, splitting time with Martinez.

            Other names that you may want to know are Patrick Kivlehan and Jordy Lara. I have already talked about Kivlehan and his raw talent and power. Lara is not very important; he just won the best name for a third baseman in the Mariners system. There wasn’t much selection.

            Third base is a position of strength for the Mariners, mostly because of Kyle Seager. His break out season will have to be continued with Catricala and Martinez in the system but I do not see either of them replacing him next year. This is one position that is locked down, even when the M’s become contenders. It is one of the few for the team so we should enjoy it while we can.

           

           

Projecting the 2013 Rotation

By Patrick

"You think they'll resign me, ball?"

"I sure hope they resign you Hisashi."
"Me too, Moony. Go back to shortstop now."

Yes, I'm back. My absence from Way Out resulted from me going back to college and being not only very busy, but also pretty removed from the Mariners. I haven't written since Felix's Supreme Court night, which was a really long time ago. Felix was a Cy Young Candidate back then. I'm as angry about his decline as you are.

Today I want to talk about the Mariners rotation in 2013. Starting pitching is definitely the Mariners' strength from an organizational standpoint, and they have a number of developing young pitchers who could become superstars. While that is certainly a major plus, the downside of all that talent is deciding who gets a rotation spot and who doesn't, and when to cast off veterans who ultimately aren't a part of the organizations future. Jack Z has some seriously difficult decisions to make in this regard. Let's look at the possible candidates for those all-important five spots.

Current M's Rotation:

Felix Hernandez, RHP, 27 in 2013
Jason Vargas, LHP, 30 in 2013
Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP, 32 in 2013
Kevin Millwood, RHP, 38 in 2013
Blake Beavan, RHP, 24 in 2013

The two guys who are sort of in the rotation too:

Erasmo Ramirez, RHP, 23 for most of 2013
Hector Noesi, RHP, 26 in 2013

The big three:

Danny Hultzen, LHP, 23 in 2013
James Paxton, LHP, 24 in 2013
Taijuan Walker, RHP, 20 for most of 2013

Other options:
Unnamed veteran free agent
Andrew Carraway RHP, 26 for most of 2013
Charlie Furbush, LHP, 27 in 2013
Tom Wilhelmsen, RHP, 29 in 2013

OK, so that's 14 potential options. That's a lot to sift through. Let me cross off a few options right away though. The Mariners are not going to bring back Millwood. He has zero upside, and should probably retire. We can probably also rule out Wilhelmsen, who's conversion to the rotation has been discussed mostly by bloggers and radio hosts, but really isn't taken seriously by the organization. He's probably too old to make a change like that anyway, regardless of the fact that he has three solid pitches. Furbush is in a similar boat to Tommy, and probably could make a few spot starts, but is better suited to a middle relief role.

Now we have 11. I don't think the Mariners will spend money on a veteran free agent starter this year. With all of the rising youth and the potential presence of Jason Vargas and Hisashi Iwakuma, a Kevin Millwood-type pitcher won't be necessary, and that money can be used to upgrade the offense.

So that leaves ten starters within the organization with a chance to crack the rotation. Here's how I see it shaking out.

1. Felix
2. Vargas
3. Iwakuma
4. Ramirez
5. Hultzen

Let's look at this top to bottom. Felix will be the ace of the staff if he's on the Mariners. Since Jack Z will probably go all out to resign him this offseason, and Felix says he loves Seattle, he' psalmist guaranteed the top spot next spring. After Felix, it gets more complicated.

Vargas and Iwakuma both have complex contract situations that could lead to their return or exit just as easily. Iwakuma's is simple on paper. He has a one-year deal set to expire at the end of the season. But he's not a conventional free agent, since he will be a 32-year old second-year player in 2013. His asking price will probably exceed the $1.5 million he made this year, and I think the Mariners will be willing to give him a small raise because of how good he can be when healthy. His performances in the second half of this season have earned him a return to the staff.

Vargas' contract is more complicated. He made a shade under $5 million this year, and is arbitration eligible to try and increase that or possibly test free agency. I think the Mariners will be able to talk Vargas' price down, since he still relies heavily on the dimensions of Safeco Field for success. If they can sign him for under $7 million, it will be worth it for one more year. I fully expect Jason to leave in 2014 as a free agent, but until then, he'll probably hold the two-spot until one of the big three step up and take it from him.

Following the veterans, I like Ramirez to slot comfortably into the back of the rotation, where he hopefully will be for years to come. He's pitched admirably as a rookie, and probably could have stayed in the rotation most of this year if it wasn't for his elbow injury and subsequent AAA demotion. He'll impress in the spring and lockdown a spot in the top five.

Hultzen is a bit of gamble as far as projections are concerned. In June, Hultzen's arrival in the big leagues in 2012 wasn't a question of if, but one of when. But then he struggled with command in AAA, and never quite made it up I5 for any of this season. That's a bit nerve-wracking. However, using former Mariners top prospect Michael Pineda as precedence, I think Hultzen will break camp as the fifth starter and slowly climb up the rotation and be the consensus number two going into 2014.

As for the five other guys, their fates are uncertain. Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan are starting pitchers, but may only find work available in the bullpen. Noesi has done that before, but Beavan hasn't. At the same time, if Beavan breaks camp in AAA, that would kind of make him seem like a 4A player (which he is). I would say trade one or both of them, but they both came over in recent blockbuster trades, so I'm not sure if that's what Jack Z will do. That being said, I bet Noesi and Beavan both start 2013 in AAA.

And why not have the other three (Paxton, Walker, and Carraway) round out the rotation in Tacoma when the M's break camp? How great would that be for a AAA rotation. Hector Noesi might still be the worst pitcher! A rotation of Walker, Beavan, Paxton, Carraway, and Noesi would probably get the Rainiers back on track and boost confidence in the immediacy of the Mariners' playoff ascent.

At this point, next season is all that matters. The Mariners' goal in 2013 has to be to contend for a playoff spot. With that in mind, they need to do what's best for the organization, and that's resigning Vargas and Iwakuma and working Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker into the rotation as the year progresses. Go M's, and it's great to be back.

On Mike Zunino

By: Anthony

People who know me will probably tell you that I don’t like to admit to being wrong. And when Patrick told me that Mike Zunino could play in a Mariner uniform in 2013 after we drafted him I told him he was crazy. Now the hard part, Patrick could possibly, maybe, be right. Zunino has been the best hitter in the Mariners system since he was signed and he conveniently he plays catcher, a position the M’s have room for.

The Mariners catcher in 2013?

If you didn’t infer from that last sentence I don’t think Miguel Olivo will not be a Mariner next year. Something about his 26.3% K rate and his 1.5% BB rate make me think the man affectionately called Mike Olive is done. And in his place we have John Jaso, who is awesome but struggles against left handed pitchers, and Jesus Montero, who does not have a future behind the dish, unless it’s a dish of pasta (Get it? It’s funny because he is slow.) Those two could platoon next year but I don’t think that is the answer for the future. Hence the need for Zunino.

            Zunino was drafted as a sure thing behind the plate. He wasn’t projected to be a star but was going to have above average defense and power for his position. That is always a good thing, especially at catcher where offense is scarce. Zunino, like Danny Hultzen, has performed differently than scouts projected him to. We all know how good he was at Everett, earning him a call up to Jackson (A jump from A- to AA). In 15 games, a super small sample size, he has a triple slash line of .333/.386/.588. Incredible numbers, especially from a catcher in his first season of pro ball and generating some talk that he could break camp with the M’s.

            This is pretty much unheard of and as Dave Cameron of USS Mariner pointed out, Thurman Munson was the last catcher to make the MLB in his second last year. Munson played in the 1970’s so this is very rare. Something we are overlooking is that Zunino has only played half of one season in pro ball. And as we have seen from Danny Hultzen, AAA is not something that can be overlooked. And while Zunino has showed no signs of slowing down, we need to take his results with a grain of salt. I don’t like to consistently repeat what other writers have said but in the words of Jeff Sullivan, Zunino hasn’t flopped yet.

            He is going to be playing in the Arizona Fall League once Jackson’s season is over and that should get him some more at bats against quality pitchers. We should not plan on Zunino making the team out of Spring Training and the team should bring in a cheap alternative to backup Jaso and maybe Montero. But if he continues to perform in Tacoma, we will see him next year. And that is absolutely a good thing, besides the fact Patrick theoretically could be correct.