By Patrick
I won't lie to you. On Monday, I was legitimately worried that the Mariners wouldn't get back to .500 in 2012. The perfect game was rough, but that whole series in general caused alarm about the Mariners' offense that pointed to a repeat of 2009-2011. They needed a breakout series against a good team where the bats really picked up to restore fan and blogger confidence.
Then the Detroit series happened. The phrase "exactly what the doctor ordered" applies here I think. I don't really see how this series could have gone better. On Tuesday, the M's kicked the crap out of a decent pitcher in Max Scherzer, and Brandon League got late run support in order to help him coast to a save (that late run support really helped him I think. I was pleading with my computer for a few more runs and they gave them to me and Brandon. Great job team.) after he blew his chance last Friday. On Wednesday, the Mariners finally hit for Felix and they cruised to a 9-1 win in which the bats continued to produce over and over again and the team chased starter Adam Wilk (who was demoted to AAA after the game) in just 2+ innings. Then yesterday, the Mariners finally won a getaway game, games they seemingly threw last year in hopes of getting unprepared young guys meaningful starts. Brandon League induced a game ending double play, and the Mariners got their first sweep of 2012.
However, a trip to Toronto gives the squad no time to rest. The collective struggles of Max Scherzer, Adam Wilk, and Rick Porcello morph quickly into the dominating arms of Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, and Henderson Alvarez. Ok, not Henderson Alvarez. But the point is, the Mariners faced some pretty average at best pitching in Detroit. Now they get two significantly above average starters and one on the level of the ones the faced in Detroit. Should be harder right? Matchup time:
April 27: Blake Beavan (1-2, 3.26) vs. Ricky Romero (3-0, 3.29)
The Mariners have faced Justin Masterson, Yu Darvish, Colby Lewis, and Brandon McCarthy this season, but Ricky Romero is far and away better than any of the pitchers the M's have faced so far this year. Romero has had an abnormally low sub six strikeouts per nine innings so far this year, but his ground ball rates have been good. His run support has helped him as well. As you can see, Beavan has a better ERA, but Romero has a significantly better overall record. Plain and simple, the M's haven't hit for Beavan, and the Blue Jays bombing offense has supported their ace. You can't win if you don't score. And the Mariners might struggle to do so, since they hit a lot of ground balls. Beavan is known for his boring consistency. A boringly good start would do enough to keep the Mariners in the game, but hitting Romero will be tough.
April 28: Kevin Millwood (0-1, 7.04) vs. Brandon Morrow (1-1, 3.74)
Yes! Finally another shot at revenge against Morrow. I can't wait to make him pay for beaning Carper Wells last year and beating us. Who we got on the hill? Gimme Felix or Vargas, we need this one! You're kidding me right? Fucking Kevin Millwood? This is some sort of sick joke, right? It's not? Shit. We're in trouble. Millwood's three starts have been…ambiguous. He showed an ability to escape trouble in Texas, limiting damage through six innings and keeping the M's in the game for a comeback win in the ninth. His next two efforts were pretty weak though, and his ERA tells the story of those outings. Morrow is a great pitcher, a former Mariner, and is not Tim Lincecum. I still dislike Morrow, and feel like we'll never see appropriate returns for that mistake of a pick. Remember however that we traded Morrow for League, so if we end up trading League whatever we get back becomes our return. Stay tuned for that in July. For now, this matchup doesn't look good for the M's.
April 29: Jason Vargas (3-1, 3.45) vs. Henderson Alvarez (0-2, 4.10)
While Jason Vargas wasn't exactly sharp in his last start, he wasn't horrible either. Jason Vargas delivered a start that I didn't have a major opinion on either way. This is not the Jason Vargas I know. This looks more like consistent number two starter Jason Vargas. Yes! He can do it! Suck it, Anthony! Of course, now that I've typed this, this will be his Mr. Vargas outing. He will find some way to lose to Henderson Alvarez, who is this series' Adam Wilk. Maybe the M's can demote him with a few innings of sustained power hitting. It's scary that a few innings of sustained power hitting is considered an unqualified success for this organization. It would be great if Jason Vargas was 4-1 though.
Three to Watch:
Justin Smoak: At the beginning of this week, Justin had hamstring issues that worried Mariner fans everywhere about yet another injury plagued season. But Thursday, on a well-worked 2-2 count, Justin obliterated a hanging changeup from Rick Porcello and crushed a no-doubter to right field. The three-run shot go the M's going in the first, and provided 60% of the offensive output for Seattle yesterday. Without that mashing swing of his, the Mariners lose that game easily. His average is still just .197, but I'll take .235 or .240 from him if he keeps killing pitches like that one. Minimum I expect a homer and four RBI this weekend from Smoak.
Chone Figgins: Yeah, this one's pretty obvious. After Figgins' average dropped to .206 on Tuesday, Eric Wedge benched him, inserted Dustin Ackley in the leadoff spot (he tore it up, too), and publicly called Chone out on his ineffective hitting. Then yesterday, Figgins proceeded to key the Mariners' victory with a three hit night, including the game winning RBI double. His average jumped 30 points. Figgins is like a criminal on death row who continually appeals his execution over and over again. He gets a ton of shit from the media, fans, and the organization and then does just enough to get out of the doghouse and make fans hope for better. Then he slowly recesses back and has to fight out of the hole again. He's on his way up again it seems. Wedge has elected to go with Casper Wells in left field today though.
Brett Lawrie: There are a few reasons to be interested in Brett Lawrie in this series. Firstly, he has the highest average among Toronto regulars so far in 2012. Secondly, he has a sister who is rather prominent in Seattle sports, as the national player of the year in softball for UW in 2010. Another reason Brett Lawrie interests Mariner fans is that, as Jeff Sullivan mentioned back in February, the Mariners had originally advertised Michael Pineda to the Blue Jays with Lawrie as the centerpiece in the return haul. However, the main reason why Mariner fans should pay attention to Lwrie is that he might really crush the pitching in this series. The guy can hit, and his connection to the Pacific Northwest amplifies that damage against the M's.
Series Outlook:
The M's have a chance to go over .500 in this series. I can't see them pulling off another sweep, especially since they have clear disadvantages in the first two pitching match ups. Best case scenario, the M's pull out one of the first two games and then obliterate the Blue Jays on Sunday. That would put them at an ideal 12-11facing a four game series in Tampa Bay. That being said, can the Mariner hit Ricky Romero? Can Kevin Millwood really hang with Brandon Morrow? Probably not. The Blue Jays win 4-2 tonight behind solid work from Romero and win 8-3 tomorrow because, you know, Kevin Millwood and shit. Vargas salvages a game for the M's on Sunday with a solid performance in a 7-1 victory. Go M's.
No comments:
Post a Comment