By Patrick
Wow. I haven't written for my own blog in like three weeks. I guess I just needed a little break. The frequency of those previews was killing me. But I'm back now, and I'd like to talk about a subject near and dear to my heart, and that's Jason Vargas.
Jason has logged four seasons as a Mariner starting pitcher since coming over from the Mets in December 2008. In those four years, the lefty has a 31-38 record with a 4.17 ERA and 387 strikeouts. He posted a low ERA of 3.78 in 2010, and he won ten games for the first time in his career last year, a number he should well surpass this season.
Speaking of which, let's look at Jason so far in 2012, which is what counts when we're talking trades. Jason has a career best (if he keeps it up) 9-7 record with a pretty solid 4.09 ERA. His numbers really show off the consistency he has put forth in 2012. Jason has zero shutouts in 2012, having allowed an earned run in everyone of his 20 starts. He's only had one truly awful start, which game on June 20 at Arizona (10 runs, nine hits, all bad). Throwing out that start, Jason had allowed between one and five runs in every single start. That level of consistency is a new element to Jason's game that he has really brought along in 2012.
Comparatively, he had six scoreless starts in 2011. But at the same time, he had five starts where he allowed more than five runs. So far in 2012, to review, those number are zero and one. So consistency has been the key to transforming Vargas into a passable number two starter. It has also contributed in teams like the Tigers (who went fishing for Doug Fister last year at the deadline and succeeded) and the Cardinals reportedly taking interest in acquiring Vargas for late season help.
Another reason teams want Vargas is for his propensity to eat innings. In 20 starts this year, Jason has gone six innings in 17 of them. By comparison, Adam Wainwright, one of the Cards' top starters, lasted six innings just 11 times in 18 starts. Moreover, Max Scherzer, a mid-rotation arm for the Tigers, has a similar 11 six plus innings starts over his 18 starts. So Jason Vargas throws more innings per start than a typical above average major league pitcher.
So what kind of haul could Jason Vargas bring? The trade that jumps out at me as precedent is the Doug Fister trade of 2011, especially if the M's are once again dealing with Detroit. Packaging Vargas with a decent reliever like Shawn Kelley could draw a similar haul to the Casper Wells, Francisco Martinez, Charlie Furbush, and Chance Ruffin that the Fister deal drew. Package Vargas with Brandon League or Tom Wilhelmsen, and the return should be even greater.
Overall, Jason Vargas is a consistent left-handed pitcher that teams looking to make a late standings charge in August and September could definitely use. The Mariners should trade him for young players that can continue to fill the system with talent. I'll miss Jason, since he has been probably my favorite Mariner over the last two years, but sometimes it's just time, and his time is in the next two weeks. Go M's.
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