By Patrick
Wow. I'm actually writing a series preview about games that matter. This is awesome. Way Out's season preview will go up next week, when the season really gets underway across the country, but for now, the M's have two games that actually count, and they get to play the A's, the only team the 2011 Mariners looked consistently better than. The Mariners and Athletics clash on March 28 and 29 in a two game series in the Tokyo Dome.
The Matchups:
March 28: Felix Hernandez vs. Brandon McCarthy
Who? Yeah, my thoughts exactly. Brandon McCarthy, a journeyman starter who has never won ten games in a season, graced the cover of the analytics issue of ESPN the magazine back in January, posing with his really attractive model wife. "Chicks dig the ground ball" was the tag line on the cover. You know what else chicks dig Brandon? Cy Young awards. On paper, Felix should win this showdown most of the time. Even though Felix got rocked in his final start before the trip, he will be fine and pitch back to form. The A's will struggle to get hits against Felix, who will likely pitch deep into the game. McCarthy will need to match him for the A's to have any hope on "Opening Day."
March 29: Jason Vargas vs. Bartolo Colon
Bartolo Colon continues to mystify me. The very fact that this guy is still pitching is a miracle. He actually won a Cy Young in his heyday with Cleveland. But his pumpkin shape caught up to him, and he disappeared from baseball, before resurfacing in 2011 with the Yankees, who cut him after a few months with the occasional flash of brilliance. Jason Vargas is far more interesting, since he has two distinct pitching personas that can show up on any given Vargas. We'll refer to them as Dr. Jason and Mr. Vargas. Last start, Mr. Vargas showed up, as he didn't escape the first inning, while allowing eight runs in the process. The Mariners will need a whole lot more of Dr. Jason this season to play .500 ball. Both of these pitchers are volatile, and the winner of this game will be the team whose pitcher's good side shows up to the ballpark.
Three Players to Watch:
Chone Figgins: Figgy's first two official games back as a leadoff hitter should be very intriguing. I sincerely hope he does well, but I have no patience for him if he struggles. Cut him if he sucks. No ifs ands or buts. If he gets two hits in the series, I'll be happy. He should probably score some runs too. Steal a base. Maybe he'll just go off. But probably not. Regardless, an effective Figgins would certainly help the M's sweep the Japan series, which has to be the goal against the mediocre A's.
Ichiro Suzuki: Another Mariner in a new spot in the order with a lot to prove. Ichiro takes on the three-hole this season, and I'm expecting a renaissance from him. He can start that in front of his home country fans at the Tokyo Dome on Wednesday and Thursday. He'll be happy and comfortable and in a position to make a serious impact with his bat in the middle of the order. Look for Ichiro to play an integral role in the outcome of both games, and maybe even go deep in one of the games just to impress all of his fans.
Coco Crisp: An absolute Mariner killer, through and through. Crisp, a leadoff hitter last year, is experiencing a similar transition to Ichiro's, with Bob Melvin likely moving him to the three spot in the order. He also may play left field as opposed to center, which would matter very little in the grand scheme of things but is something to keep an eye on. The A's have undergone so many changes in the outfield this offseason that Crisp seems to be the only constant. His leadership, coupled with his uncanny ability to get big hits out of pitcher's counts against the M's, will help the A's in their quest to sweep in Japan.
Series Outlook:
The Mariners have looked ragged in Japan so far while the A's have appeared stellar. Do the exhibition games really matter? Maybe a little. However, the M's should have some sort of home field advantage with all of the Ichiro supporters that will attend, and I think that makes No. 51 the x-factor in the series. Ichiro will excel in his home country and kick start his comeback season. Felix gives up two runs tops in game one and the M's win 4-2. Vargas struggles a bit in game two, but the M's offense and bullpen comes through and Ichiro takes Bartolo Colon's fat ass yard. M's win game two, 7-4. Brandon League slams the door twice. Go M's
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