Hector Noesi, the New Jason Vargas?

By Anthony

When Patrick first asked me to compare the two I thought it was ridiculous. Vargas is a short, veteran LHP and Noesi is a tall, young righty. However, results wise, they have pitched pretty similarly. I’ll point out now that when we say Jason Vargas, we mean the Jason Vargas of 2011 who threw complete game shut outs and then gave up seven runs to the Indians. Since I am a much more data oriented person than Patrick, I decided to dig a little deeper than the eye test.  I looked at all of Noesi’s starts this year and looked at his pitch break down based off of his performance. What I found is intriguing to a numbers nerd like myself.

           
All of my data came from the nice folks at Texasleaguers.com and the wonderful pitch F/X system. Here is the data I acquired and sorted based on how he performed.

Good Start

Pitch	Fastball	Changeup	Curveball	Slider
Times Thrown	58	21	7	8
% for Strikes	67.2	76.2	57	25
% Swing and Miss	1.7	19	0	0

He also had 6 K’s, 1 BB, 16 flyballs, 5 ground balls and 1 line drive in this one start

Other Three Starts

Pitch	Fastballs	Changeup	Curveball	Slider
Times Thrown	98	46	16	27
% for Strikes	68.3	56.5	56	55
% Swing and Miss	6	15	6	11

In the three starts combined he had 6 K’s, 6 BB’s, 15 flyballs, 12 groundballs and 11 line drives

Now for the fun part! I get to try to analyze all this data and tell you what it all means. I don’t feel like doing paragraphs, mostly because it’s a Sunday night and I am feeling lazy. So, to the bullet points we go:

·      The first thing I noticed as I was crunching these numbers was the oddity of Noesi’s fastball. His fastball is actually better in his bad starts than in his good one. He missed more bats and got more strikes with it. That’s something weird and doesn’t necessarily mean anything

·      Then I saw the main culprit, the changeup. When Noesi was good, he was filling up the zone with his changeup and he was missing bats. His whiff % isn’t too far apart but the 20% gap in strikes thrown is something that needs to be addressed. I don’t know if he lacks confidence in his command with the changeup or if his mechanics are slightly off when he throws it. However, when he has had success, he has thrown the changeup often and for strikes. If he can do that consistently, then he should have success. For those of you who are unfamiliar with Texasleaguers.com, they have a whole bunch of data, including release point of the pitch from the catcher’s point of view. Here is Hector Noesi’s spread from this year.

Here is a zoomed in version of that image so the spread is much more visible. The white space spans 2.5 feet. That huge spread is not a good thing.

One of the most consistent and best pitchers in the league is Roy Halladay, look at his spread.

Notice how tightly grouped the pitches are. It is pretty unfair to compare Noesi to Halladay but they are similar body types and Noesi needs to become more consistent with his mechanics. It will lead him to more success and him being more consistent in the zone, especially with his changeup.

·      His breaking pitches aren’t used much, mostly because they are not good. Breaking pitches are supposed to miss bats, as you can tell from his swing and miss percentages, he cannot do that very well. Those pitches are used pretty much to keep the batter guessing and not just sitting on a fastball or changeup. He needs to improve in this area. It is impossible to be a successful two-pitch starting pitcher in the MLB. He needs to improve either his slider or his curve. That is the third most important area he needs to work on.

·      Something else that should be addressed, in his one good start, he was able to induce a lot of fly balls and infield pop ups. In Safeco this strategy works pretty well. Out of Safeco it can be dangerous.

·      The second biggest cause for his failures, besides the inability to locate his changeup regularly is the number of line drives he gives up. Line drives are most often hits, so if you give up a bunch of line drives, you are most likely giving up a bunch of hits. In his 3 bad starts he gave up 11 line drives. That is not good at all. He is getting squared up far too often for his talent level.

In summary, based on the scoreboard results, Hector Noesi is the new Jason Vargas. One shutout, two shellings and one decent performance, is very Vargas-like. If you don’t remember my opinion on Jason Vargas’ past inconsistencies, I will reiterate. I do not like inconsistent pitchers. They are annoying and unreliable. I would rather Noesi pitches like Blake Beavan than Jason Vargas. Sure Beavan is boring and not interesting to write about. But he gives the M’s a chance to win every night by keeping them in the game. Noesi, please be more like Blake and less like Jason. Locate your changeup, generate fewer line drives and work on your breaking pitches. That is all. Go M's.