Monday Morning Rant: Felix's Future

By Patrick

All Hail

It's Monday. Mondays suck. Unless your Monday is like my Monday. This is the first Monday of summer for me, and boy is it sweet. I almost went a full hour without my mom nagging me to get out of bed and do shit. Summer sucks.

Anyway, for the foreseeable future, I'm going to try and express some of my opinions on Monday mornings, like Peter King or somebody similar. I know, original. We are the blog that completely ripped off Stephen Colbert for our Three Amigos segments. So, yeah, what did you expect?

About a week ago, I tweeted that I thought the Mariners had three pieces of their lineup in place for the foreseeable future. I don't remember what exactly prompted this tweet, but I assume Kyle Seager did something well, since until recently he wasn't regarded as a permanent piece. However, at this juncture, I think that the Mariners have their second baseman of the future in Dustin Ackley (sophomore slump, give it time), their catcher who might be a DH of the future (yikes) in Jesus Montero, and their third baseman of the future in Seager. 

But that's it. Justin Smoak is a question mark, so is every outfielder in the entire organization. And don't even start with shortstop. So that leaves six spots in the lineup still to fill to build a contender. Fortunately, the organization and baseball scouts everywhere feel pretty good about Nick Franklin, the shortstop for AA Jackson. Franklin could either play shortstop or second base, the latter of which would likely bump Dustin Ackley out to left field. So if you believe in Franklin, who might show up in September or even sooner, that's five spots.

To be filled how? Well following my tweet, Brian Elsner of waitforitseattle.com (ironically also my history teacher my junior year of high school) tweeted back at me asking whether the M's will have four of their five future rotation spots filled for their contending team by next season. With Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, and James Paxton looking solid in AA, they could join Felix next season to form quite a formidable core for years to come. I even added that Erasmo Ramirez and Hector Noesi (patience, my son) could join those three to make a scary rotation for years to come. That was before I'd even heard of Andrew Carraway, the "ace" of the Jackson staff who was promoted to Tacoma last week and looked sensational over the weekend for the Rainiers. So that makes seven pitchers who could contribute for the Mariners in the coming years. 

So I pose the question: do the Mariners need Felix Hernandez? I don't think that they should trade him now, or this year, or even next year. But when you look at how sparse the hitting prospects look for the Mariners compared to their pitchers, it seems like they'll have to keep trading pitching for hitting. Jason Vargas will be a start. Unfortunately, Mariners fans should cheer for him to do well because he's trade bait, not a future solution. Package him with Blake Beavan, and the M's could get a decent return in the hitting department. 

But even then, that might fill one spot at best. Trading Felix in theory should fill three. He has a manageable contract and is a top five player not just at his position or in his league, but in the entire game. Sure, having his star power would be great, but if the Mariners are to follow the Tampa Bay Rays model for success, the team has to do it collectively, not with a few stars. 

Felix loves Seattle. Seattle loves Felix. But Seattle needs winning. Felix would yield three or even four top prospects, and the Mariners would trade him at his peak, around 28, when his potential had been fully realized, and his best days were behind him. It's a tough argument to make, but three top end hitters would transform the Mariners into a juggernaut when they are ready to embrace that status two years from now. 

I love Felix. But the return he could deliver for a team ready to win in two years might get too great to pass up. I know Jack Z doesn't want to trade him, but even he'll get tired of losing eventually. All hail the king. Go M's.