The Curious Case of Felix Hernandez

By Anthony

Wooooo!

Felix Hernandez is awesome. I will come out and say that right now. He is the rock of the franchise and main reason why the Mariners are in any sense relevant. He has had to put up with sub par offenses for a while and never complained. Kudos to you Felix. He has had a Wins-Above-Replacement of above 5.5 for the past three years. That means he has won over 5.5 more games for the team than whoever would have replaced him. For some context, C.C. Sabathia has had 2 seasons above 5.5 WAR in the past three. But, for some reason, Felix has only had a WAR of 1.7 this year and has struggled. He has had some starts where he looked like an average pitcher, not a guy nicknamed the King. I will look into the numbers and see what exactly is wrong with the King. Just a heads up, there will be a bunch of numbers, since numbers never lie, unlike the eye test.

I will be drawing all my data from the Pitch f/x system and data stored on texasleaguers.com. It is a very interesting site for a numbers nerd like myself. The two sample sizes I will be using are Felix in the last three years and Felix this year. This is what I found.

Pre-2012 Felix

Pitch	%Thrown	% Strikes	Velocity	Swing %	Whiff %
4 Seam Fastball	35.4	63.7	93.9	45.8	7
2 Seam Fastball	1.3	58.6	93.6	46.4	10
Sinker	24.8	66.7	93.3	48	6.5
Changeup	14.2	67.4	89.2	58.8	17.9
Curveball	15.1	59.4	82.4	33.5	11.4
Slider	8.9	65.1	86.4	46.4	16.2

2012 Felix

Pitch	%Thrown	% Strikes	Velocity	Swing %	Whiff %
4 Seam Fastball	16.5	60.9	91.7	39.6	4.5
2 Seam Fastball	8.8	63	91.8	48.1	5.6
Sinker	12.7	68.6	91.8	43.6	3.2
Changeup	32.7	63.3	89.1	50.0	14.5
Curveball	14.9	59.9	81.4	40.7	9.3
Slider	14.1	60.7	86	43.9	11.6

For those who aren’t very used to comparing sets of data, I will now break down what I see from these two tables. There are two key issues that I see as the root of Felix’s problems and struggles.

First of all is his velocity. Everyone knows that Felix is not throwing as hard as he usually does. What I find curious about this certain issue is that it is not a problem with his off-speed pitches. Only his fastball(s) and sinker (I am fairly sure that there is some cross-over between his sinker and 2-seam fastball but Pitch f/x has its issues that we can’t really correct) are losing velocity. This does not signal an arm issue or aging to me. A drop in velocity would show across the board if that was the problem. Recently, Felix has mentioned the issue and the M’s have come out and said its not a big deal. Really? I would claim it is a big deal, or at least something that could attribute to his struggles. Know who else has had velocity issues this year? Tim Lincecum. And we just beat the former Cy Young winner. Felix has finally watched tape of himself and saw that he was not pushing off with his back leg and wasn’t being as aggressive with his upper body. This is absolutely an awesome revelation from Felix. All of those things hurt velocity and when he returned from a back injury, that was an annoying setback, he had made changes. 

Most Recent Felix (In two starts)

2012 Felix

Pitch	%Thrown	% Strikes	Velocity	Swing %	Whiff %
4 Seam Fastball	25	64.7	92.2	39.6	4.5
2 Seam Fastball	13.7	67.9	92.9	48.1	5.6
Sinker	15.2	80.6	92.3	43.6	3.2
Changeup	22.1	53.3	89.4	50.0	14.5
Curveball	11.7	82.6	82.5	40.7	9.3
Slider	12.7	53.8	86.5	43.9	11.6

Notice how his velocity has jumped up a few ticks. That is very good. I don’t care how much a pitch moves, it has to make a batter scared. Meaning that they have to worry about it being thrown past them. Not because that happens often, but a good fastball can turn an average off-speed pitch into a very good weapon. If a batter is worried about getting beat by a fastball, they will be more willing to swing at an off-speed pitch. And guess what Felix’s best pitch is? His changeup. That thing is NASTY! But if he throws it at the same speed as his fastball, a batter won’t be too worried. Notice how the whiff percentage has dropped with his changeup this year. That is not because it has lost movement or anything, but because hitters aren’t too worried about Felix throwing 96 past them. They know they can sit on his now mediocre fastball and hit it. He has made steps here, but he needs to get his velocity up on his fastball. 

The second thing, a universal fact in pitching, is that Felix must throw strikes. I don’t care if a pitcher has the stuff of Justin Verlander or is a teenager in a summer league game who hasn’t pitched in two years. The way to get batters out is to throw strikes. Not every batter is Vlad Guerrero or Miguel Olivo. Felix needs to get ahead of hitters and he absolutely can. One of his best characteristics is that he has command of all his pitches. I have watched him throw 3-1 curves for strikes and 1-2 fastballs right at the catcher’s glove. He has the ability to consistently hit his spots. If you ignore the two-seamer/ sinker similarity that Pitch f/x can’t figure out, almost all of his strike percentages have dropped. His curve percentage has increased half a percentage. Not significant. But his command is clearly lacking. Something that backs this point up is that in the past three years, his BB/9 has been about 2.5. Now it is at 2.85. Not a super large jump, but he has also hit 7 people so far this year. He averaged 7.66 batters hit in the past three years. That is bad. 

After he came back from injury, his strike percentages have jumped up dramatically. Mind, it is only two starts vs. 3 years of starts. But, it is a start. Especially with his fastball, he must be able to command his fastball and get ahead of batters when he needs to. His fastball is not his best pitch and is probably top 3, maybe. But it is still the pitch that is easiest to command and I guarantee you he has been throwing it for the longest. Everything with a pitcher starts with a fastball, it may not be good, but it has to be something that can be relied on to get strikes, and to set up other off-speed pitches. If Felix can get his fastball to go where he wants, he should be able to find some success.

So there you are. Felix has had troubles this year. He has a home run problem. He has had some bad innings that he can’t get out of. He hasn’t been the dominant, lights-out starter that we expect him to be. All that comes down to is two simple issues, velocity and command. Every pitcher needs them. Felix included. So watch for those two factors in his next start. And Go M’s.